On May 25, 2025, the Philippine Air Force (PAF) marked a significant leap in its maritime defense capabilities with the official arrival of its first ATR 72-600MPA maritime patrol aircraft , delivered from Italy via Phuket, Thailand. This advanced platform, equipped with cutting-edge surveillance systems including radar, electro-optical sensors, and signals intelligence (SIGINT) gear, is set to transform the country’s maritime domain awareness (MDA). Integrated with the National Coast Watch Center, the aircraft enables real-time data transmission to command centers ashore, offering unprecedented situational awareness across the vast waters of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
The ATR 72-600MPA, built on Leonardo’s proven airframe and enhanced with Elbit Systems’ ELI-3360MPA mission suite, is designed for long-range maritime patrol, capable of detecting small objects at distances up to 128 kilometers. Its delivery represents a key milestone under the leadership of Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and aligns with the broader Horizon phase of the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ modernization program.
Yet, while this acquisition marks a major step forward in aerial surveillance, it also highlights a gap in the country’s maritime defense architecture: the absence of an undersea capability. As tensions escalate in the West Philippine Sea—where Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels continue to conduct aggressive patrols, block resupply missions, and engage in dangerous maneuvers—the need for asymmetric deterrence has never been more urgent.
Recognizing this reality, Philippine defense leaders have begun accelerating efforts to acquire submarines, reclassifying them as a top-tier priority under the Horizon 3 modernization phase. “We are an archipelagic nation, so we have to have this capability,” stated Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., Chief of Staff of the AFP, during a February 2025 briefing. The move reflects a strategic recalibration: from merely observing threats from above to being able to project power and deny access beneath the waves.
Submarines offer the Philippines a critical advantage—stealth and unpredictability. In a region dominated by larger navies and complex geopolitical rivalries, a submarine force could act as a powerful deterrent, complicating China’s maritime calculus.
To lay the groundwork, the Philippine Navy has established a dedicated study group focused on developing doctrine, operational concepts, and technical requirements for a future submarine fleet. Infrastructure upgrades, training programs, and technology transfers will be essential to ensure long-term sustainability. In a symbolic and practical step forward, the Navy recently joined the International Submarine Escape and Rescue Liaison Office, participating in Invitex Kurtaran 2025 —its first multinational submarine rescue exercise hosted in Turkey.
In parallel, the Philippine Navy has deepened its cooperation with the U.S. Navy, engaging in discussions on joint anti-submarine warfare exercises, uncrewed underwater systems, and training initiatives aimed at preparing Filipino sailors for next-generation naval operations.
While the acquisition of the ATR 72-600MPA enhances the Philippines’ ability to monitor its vast maritime territory from the skies, it is the acquisition of submarines that may ultimately define the country’s capacity to defend its sovereign interests. In a contested region where presence often dictates control, the ability to operate unseen—and strike when least expected—could prove to be the ultimate gamechanger.
For the Philippines, the path to maritime security no longer ends at the surface. It must now go deeper—literally and strategically.
The Escalating Challenge: China’s Maritime Pressure in the West Philippine Sea
The West Philippine Sea, a vital part of Manila’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, continues to be a hotbed of geopolitical tension due to China’s persistent and aggressive maritime incursions. Beijing consistently disregards the 2016 international arbitral ruling that invalidated its expansive “Nine-Dash Line” claims, intensifying its presence through “grey zone” tactics that fall short of armed conflict but aim to assert control.
Recent incidents vividly illustrate this escalating pressure. On May 22, 2025, the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) accused the China Coast Guard (CCG) of firing water cannons and sideswiping a Filipino government vessel, the BRP Datu Sanday, near Sandy Cay during a marine scientific research mission. This “aggressive interference, dangerous maneuvers, and illegal acts” damaged the Philippine ship’s port bow and smokestack, “putting at risk lives of its civilian personnel,” according to the BFAR. It was the first time water cannons were used against Philippine vessels specifically near Sandy Cay.
These incidents are part of a broader pattern of “frequent swarming of Philippine outposts and obstruction of resupply missions.” The sheer volume of Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea is a significant concern. As AFP chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. stated, the number of Chinese vessels has markedly increased, “From 190 vessels in 2021, now we see 286 on the average daily for the year 2024.” This consistent and overwhelming presence, including by the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia, often referred to as “little blue men,” serves to limit Filipino fishermen’s access and assert Beijing’s claims by force rather than by law. International allies, including the United States, Japan, Canada, the UK, and the EU, have condemned China’s recent actions, with U.S. Ambassador MaryKay Carlson stating that the CCG’s “aggressive actions…recklessly endangered lives and threatened regional stability.”
A Historical Shift: From Internal Focus to External Defense
Historically, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) had been primarily configured for internal security operations, dedicating significant resources to counter-insurgency and terrorism. This long-standing focus meant that external defense capabilities and equipment procurement were not given top priority. Indeed, as part of its Horizon 3 defense modernization plan introduced in 2022, Manila initially included a submarine capability, but “procurement initially was not a priority.” The country’s defense spending historically reflected this internal orientation, with a relatively small percentage of the national budget allocated to military defense compared to other ASEAN nations like Singapore.
However, the increasingly assertive actions by China in the West Philippine Sea have profoundly altered this strategic calculus, driving an urgent re-evaluation of the AFP’s needs. The frequent and aggressive incursions by Chinese vessels, including the use of water cannons and dangerous maneuvers against Philippine ships, have made the “urgent need for subsurface capabilities” strikingly clear. As AFP chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. emphatically stated, “We are an archipelagic nation, so we have to have this capability because it is extremely difficult to defend our vast maritime territory without submarines.” This realization signifies a pivotal shift in the Philippines’ defense strategy, recognizing that a credible deterrent against external maritime threats necessitates a significant enhancement of its naval power, particularly in the underwater domain.
Modern Dynamics: Submarines as a Strategic Deterrent and Asymmetric Capability
The Philippines’ pursuit of a submarine fleet is driven by a clear understanding of its potential as a strategic deterrent, fundamentally altering the dynamics of maritime security in the West Philippine Sea. Submarines, with their stealth and endurance, would “complicate Beijing’s destabilizing maritime operations” and offer a crucial deterrent against aggressive grey-zone tactics. This is a critical factor, especially given the continuous pressure from Chinese vessels.
The strategic value of submarines extends to asymmetric warfare and a sea denial strategy. Retired Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong, a former Philippine Navy vice commander, has been a vocal proponent of this approach. He asserts that a submarine program, combined with the recently acquired Philippine Marine Corps anti-ship missile batteries like the BrahMos, would “provide the Philippine Navy with an asymmetric capability to deal with the [Chinese] People’s Liberation Army Navy surface fleet.” Ong further elaborated, stating that “Together, they support the Philippine Navy’s sea denial strategy in the West Philippine Sea.” He emphasizes that a submarine capability enables the Philippines to “work on a cost imposition strategy, targeting Chinese vulnerability: its international trade, which is dependent on the sea.” This highlights how a relatively small submarine fleet can significantly raise the stakes for a larger adversary. The Philippines has already received the second batch of BrahMos anti-ship missile batteries from India in April 2025, with plans to acquire up to nine additional BrahMos batteries, further solidifying this asymmetric defense posture.
The Potential Acquisition of Cheap Italian fighter Jets by the Philippines
The Philippine Navy is actively advancing its submarine program. A dedicated study group has been established to prepare for acquisitions, initially focusing on strategic planning and doctrine development. The comprehensive program encompasses not only the acquisition of the platforms themselves but also the essential infrastructure for basing and maintenance, as well as critical components like technology transfers and personnel training. The budget allocated for the acquisition of at least two modern diesel-electric submarines over the next decade, under the Re-Horizon 3 phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program approved in January 2024, is significant, ranging from PHP 80 billion to PHP 110 billion (approximately USD 1.4 to 2 billion). Four major international defense contractors have already submitted proposals, including France’s Naval Group, which has offered its Scorpène-class submarine, alongside comprehensive support packages. The Philippine Navy’s commitment is also evident in its recent participation in international drills; it joined the International Submarine Escape and Rescue Liaison Office and sent a delegation to Invitex Kurtaran 2025, a multinational submarine search and rescue drill held in late April near Turkey’s Aksaz Naval Base.
Strengthening Alliances: US Support for Anti-Submarine Warfare
The Philippines’ ambitious goal of acquiring submarine capabilities is significantly enhanced by its deepening alliance with the United States, particularly through enhanced bilateral cooperation in anti-submarine warfare (ASW). This collaboration is a crucial component of Manila’s broader strategy to establish a credible deterrent against increasing maritime pressure in the West Philippine Sea.
Recent high-level discussions highlight this commitment. In March 2025, Philippine Navy chief Vice Admiral Jose Ma Ambrosio Ezpeleta and U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Christopher Cavanaugh, Commander, Submarine Group Seven (COMSUBGRUSEVEN), met to strengthen cooperation. Their discussions specifically focused on “enhancing bilateral cooperation, particularly in developing the Philippine Navy’s submarine capabilities,” and exploring ways the U.S. Navy “could support the growth of the Philippine Navy’s submarine force and improve Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) capabilities.” This dialogue highlights a strategic move towards building the Philippines’ capacity to detect and neutralize underwater threats, which is essential for protecting its vast maritime territory.
Beyond high-level talks, this cooperation extends to joint development and training initiatives. The commanders’ discussions in March 2025 also addressed joint exercises and the development of uncrewed underwater systems, signaling a forward-looking approach to maritime domain awareness and subsurface capabilities. Furthermore, training Philippine Navy personnel in operating uncrewed surface vessels is a key element, as evidenced by the showcasing of U.S.-developed MANTAS T-12 unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) at Naval Operating Base Subic during the Philippine Navy’s 127th anniversary in May 2025. These autonomous systems, delivered through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, are designed for maritime surveillance and serve as crucial training platforms. The recent multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) in April 2025, involving the U.S., Philippines, and Australia, also featured “communications and anti-submarine warfare exercises,” further demonstrating the practical application of this strengthened partnership. The overall aim, as articulated by U.S. and Philippine officials, is to enhance interoperability and ensure a “credible combat power that backs up the commitment and our promise to peace” in the region.
The Significance of Submarines: A Long-Term Vision for Philippine Defense
The Philippines’ pursuit of submarines represents a monumental shift, marking a long-term vision for its national defense and aiming to fundamentally enhance its maritime security. Submarines are seen as a critical component for effectively defending the Philippines’ vast maritime territory and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), particularly in the highly contested South China Sea. Their inherent stealth and potent strike capabilities provide a covert and formidable means to “counter subsurface threats” and exert influence beneath contested waters without exposing surface assets to immediate detection or interference. This capability is vital for enforcing sovereignty, deterring “grey-zone operations,” and ensuring strategic depth in a region characterized by asymmetric threats.
This acquisition reflects a clear projection of strategic intent – a long-term commitment to developing a robust, credible defense posture. It signals a proactive stance in safeguarding national interests in the contested South China Sea, moving beyond mere diplomatic protests to a more tangible deterrent. As General Romeo Brawner Jr. noted in February 2025, acquiring submarines is a “dream for us.” This dream is now backed by substantial financial commitment and strategic planning under the “Re-Horizon 3” phase of the Revised AFP Modernization Program, approved in January 2024.
Despite the strategic imperatives, the submarine program faces significant challenges and future prospects. The most prominent hurdle is the substantial financial investment, with an estimated ₱80–₱110 billion (approximately USD 1.4 to 2 billion) allocated for the acquisition of at least two diesel-electric submarines. This figure includes not only the vessels themselves but also the comprehensive development of supporting infrastructure, such as new naval bases with specialized piers, maintenance yards, and logistics depots, along with the crucial investment in human capital through extensive training for the nation’s first-ever submariners. Several international defense contractors, including France’s Naval Group (offering its Scorpène-class), South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean (offering the JangBogo-III), and a German-Italian consortium (offering the U212 NFS), are vying for the contract, often sweetening their bids with financing plans and offers for technology transfer and local industry involvement. While the acquisition of submarines is poised to provide a significant deterrence leverage to the Philippine Navy, experts caution about the potential for further escalation in regional dynamics as the Philippines strengthens its deterrent capabilities. The strategic shift places the Indo-Pacific at a crucial juncture, balancing the need for strategic deterrence with the inherent risks of increased militarization.
