In the boiling heart of Asia’s power struggle, one question dominates the map: Why does China want full control over the South China Sea? This isn’t just about rocks and reefs—it’s about supremacy, security, and rewriting the rules of the global order. With trillions in trade passing through these waters, vast untapped energy reserves below, and major shipping lanes above, control of the South China Sea means control of the future. But can China actually take full control? Is it winning the battle for dominance—or just fueling a ticking time bomb? And most importantly, how will things play out from here? Between coast guard clashes, island fortresses, and rising military posturing, the road ahead is anything but calm. Let’s break it down.
Why Does China Want Full Control Over the South China Sea?
China’s ambition to dominate the South China Sea isn’t rooted in nationalism alone, it’s a calculated pursuit of power, resources, and control over the future. This isn’t just water, it’s wealth. Beneath the surface lies a staggering reservoir of oil, gas, fish, and rare minerals, all essential to China’s economic engine and strategic survival.
Often dubbed the “Second Persian Gulf,” the South China Sea holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But Chinese sources claim far more, some projecting the Spratly Islands alone may sit atop 225 billion barrels of oil equivalent. In 2024, Beijing’s state-run oil giant CNOOC struck a major find with the Lingshui 36-1 gas field southeast of Hainan, over 100 billion cubic meters of gas, enough to deepen China’s energy independence. And yet, the majority of these high-potential zones lie in disputed waters, beyond the so-called Nine-Dash Line, where China is pushing hardest to entrench its presence, despite global protests.
But it’s not just oil and gas. These waters are among the richest fishing zones in the world, providing about 10% of the planet’s seafood. For China, the world’s largest seafood producer and consumer, that’s not just a statistic, it’s a lifeline. Fish means food security, economic stability, and political peace at home. And as stocks dwindle, with nearly 40% on the brink—China’s massive, assertive fishing fleet roams deeper into disputed zones, often backed by maritime militia. These aren’t just fishing boats; they’re tools of power projection. The 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff is a chilling example, what started as a fishing dispute ended in China seizing the area, locking out Filipino fishermen and tightening its grip.
Adding to the stakes is what lies beneath the seabed, rare earth minerals. These materials are the backbone of next-gen technologies: electric vehicles, smartphones, missiles, satellites. Whoever controls access to these minerals controls the tech race. Though much of the region remains geologically underexplored, Beijing is clearly playing the long game: establish control now, extract later, and dominate tomorrow’s supply chains.
China isn’t just relying on maps or diplomacy, it’s building facts on the water. Since 2014, it has transformed barren reefs like Fiery Cross and Mischief Reef into heavily fortified military outposts with airstrips, missile systems, and radar domes. These man-made islands extend China’s reach, deter rival exploration, and anchor its expansive territorial claims. In the same year, it sent the Haiyang Shiyou 981 drilling rig into Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone, triggering protests and nearly collapsing bilateral relations. The message was clear: resources and sovereignty go hand-in-hand, and China is willing to risk both to assert dominance.
Equally potent is China’s “gray zone” strategy, using civilian-flagged vessels as front-line enforcers. These maritime militia ships often masquerade as fishing boats, but they block, ram, and harass foreign vessels engaged in legal resource exploration. In the Scarborough Shoal and more recently around Second Thomas Shoal, these tactics have allowed China to gain de facto control without firing a shot. Between 2023 and 2025, Chinese coast guard ships repeatedly used water cannons against Philippine resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting but symbolic outpost on Ayungin Shoal. At stake is not just sovereignty, but the energy-rich Reed Bank nearby, which Manila hopes to develop, and Beijing wants to keep under shadow control.
As a 2024 Darkhorse Financial report put it: “If you own the South China Sea, you hold the keys to energy, food, and trade in the Indo-Pacific.” And that’s why China is digging in, reef by reef, barrel by barrel, patrol by patrol. Because whoever rules these waters doesn’t just control the map, they control the future.
Trade Artillery, China’s life line and a nightmare for China’s think tanks
The South China Sea isn’t just strategic, it’s China’s economic jugular. Nearly one-third of global maritime trade, up to $5.3 trillion annually, flows through its waters. For Beijing, it’s personal: 80% of its energy imports and over 40% of total trade pass through this corridor, much of it funneled through the narrow Strait of Malacca. In 2023, 10 billion barrels of oil and 6.7 trillion cubic feet of LNG sailed these routes, with China as the largest LNG importer. It’s no sea, it’s a lifeline.
That lifeline is also a nightmare. China’s planners call it the “Malacca Dilemma”, the fear that a foreign navy, especially the U.S., could choke off these arteries during conflict. The threat of a naval blockade haunts Chinese think tanks. To guard against it, Beijing has gone all in: DF-21D “carrier killer” missiles, submarine fleets, artificial islands, and militarized outposts, all under a sweeping Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) doctrine designed to keep rivals out and sea lanes open.
History adds fuel to the fear. The 2021 Suez Canal crisis showed how fragile chokepoints are. The 2023–25 Red Sea attacks rerouted global shipping and drove home the costs of insecurity at sea. China knows one blockade could collapse trade, tank markets, and shatter domestic stability.
So it’s hard. Through its “String of Pearls” ports from Gwadar to Hambantota to Kyaukpyu, China is building backdoors, alternate routes, and strategic leverage across the Indian Ocean. These aren’t just ports; they’re escape hatches from dependency and moves on the global chessboard. Electronics are the final piece. Over 80% of global electronics are made in Asia, mostly in China and nearly all ship through the South China Sea. A blockade here wouldn’t just hurt China, it’d crash global supply chains. Beijing’s Nine-Dash Line isn’t just a claim, it’s a shield for survival. The South China Sea is trade artillery, and China is racing to turn its greatest vulnerability into its greatest weapon.
China’s rising clout and its two Ocean strategy
China’s maritime rise is no longer theoretical, it’s operational. At the heart of this transformation is its Two-Ocean Strategy (两洋战略): a bold shift from “near-seas defense” to far-seas projection, targeting dominance in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This evolution aligns with Beijing’s grand vision, national rejuvenation, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and dismantling the U.S.-led maritime order. Now boasting the world’s largest navy by fleet size, the PLAN had over 370 combat ships by late 2024, with projections hitting 435 by 2030. In contrast, the U.S. Navy stood at just 296 ships. China’s industrial edge is massive, its shipbuilding capacity now 230 times greater than America’s, enabling rapid fleet expansion at an industrial scale.
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Iconic symbols of this leap include the Type 003 aircraft carrier Fujian, China’s first with an electromagnetic catapult, and the Type 076 amphibious assault ship, capable of launching both manned and unmanned aircraft. These platforms showcase Beijing’s intention to field airpower far from home waters. This buildup is backed by an official 2024 defense budget of $234.5 billion, a figure many believe understates the real total. But it’s not just ships and weapons. China has weaponized soft power too: topping the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index for diplomacy, while the BRI’s 150+ country network enables dual-use port investments with military potential.
Pentagon reports highlight how China’s modernization boosts global power projection without needing open war. Joint drills with Russia and Iran, like the 2024 Indian Ocean Maritime Security Belt, and persistent “anti-piracy” patrols signal a normalized blue-water presence. The Peace Ark hospital ship extends soft power to Africa and Latin America while collecting strategic data.The crown jewels of this doctrine are China’s overseas bases. Its Djibouti base, near the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, has grown into a major naval hub with a 450-meter pier, hosting large warships. This isn’t just logistics, it’s a strategic answer to the “Malacca Dilemma.” Similar upgrades at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base hint at deeper military footprints cloaked in denials and commercial narratives.
China’s port strategy is sweeping. It now holds positions in 96 foreign ports, with 45 along key trade arteries, half within a day’s sail of major chokepoints. Gwadar Port in Pakistan, though civilian on paper, is a potential forward naval node, strategically bypassing the vulnerable Strait of Malacca. At its core, this strategy is about economic security through maritime power. As one analyst put it, “While the two-ocean strategy has military roots, it is nonetheless focused on furthering China’s economic interests.” The goal? A permanent naval footprint that ensures energy flows, trade protection, and political influence, turning China from a regional power into a global force able to challenge the status quo.
Breaking the Chains: South China Sea as China’s Strategic Getaway
The U.S. Island Chain Strategy, born in the Cold War remains the backbone of American power projection in the Indo-Pacific. It forms a defensive arc from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines (the First Island Chain), out to Guam and Palau (the Second Island Chain). To the U.S., it’s a shield. To China, it’s a noose.
Beijing views these chains not as static geography, but as walls to be broken. And the South China Sea is the first breach point. Over the last decade, China has transformed this region into its maritime springboard, militarizing reefs, building runways, and deploying a vast array of long-range weapons to challenge U.S. dominance. Anchoring this transformation is its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy, built around systems like the DF-21D and DF-26 missiles, capable of striking carriers and U.S. bases across the Second Island Chain.
The 2025 dual deployment of China’s aircraft carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, beyond the First Island Chain marked a major shift: no longer is China merely defending its coast, it’s projecting power beyond it. Below the waves, a growing submarine fleet, including nuclear-powered attack and ballistic missile subs, is already pushing into the Philippine Sea. U.S. surveillance in 2023 alone tracked at least 11 such Chinese submarines operating in the Western Pacific.
On the surface, China’s artificial islands have become fortified bastions. Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi Reefs bristle with radars, missile platforms, and long airstrips, unsinkable forward bases positioned deep in disputed territory. These outposts aren’t symbolic, they’re operational. Strategic chokepoints like the Luzon Strait, between Taiwan and the Philippines, now serve as exit routes for the People’s Liberation Army Navy. Chinese warships increasingly pass through this corridor, signaling Beijing’s ambition to breach the First Island Chain and operate freely in the Philippine Sea. This matters because in any future Taiwan conflict, or wider Indo-Pacific crisis, controlling these passages is critical.
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China’s push isn’t limited to hardware. Its “gray zone” tactics, close-in intercepts of U.S. surveillance aircraft, harassment of foreign vessels, and relentless coast guard pressure, aim to exhaust its rivals without crossing into full-scale war. Combined with land-based radar, mobile missile batteries, and forward-deployed platforms, China is building a dense surveillance and strike network across the southern maritime theater.
Washington hasn’t stood idle. In 2024, U.S. forces conducted over 1,000 reconnaissance missions and logged more than 700 ship-days in the South China Sea. Bases in Guam, Palau, and Tinian are being upgraded to host sustained operations. Crucially, the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the Philippines now provides U.S. forces access to new locations near both Taiwan and the Spratlys, giving Washington more flexibility and strategic depth. Annual joint drills like Balikatan are growing in scale and realism, preparing for multi-domain island warfare and quick-response contingencies aimed at countering Chinese expansion within the First Island Chain. These are no longer just exercises, they’re rehearsals.
China’s ambitions follow a clear trajectory once set by Admiral Liu Huaqing: secure the First Island Chain by the early 2000s, the Second by the 2020s, and field a global navy by the 2040s. That roadmap is rapidly unfolding. Today, missiles, carriers, and outposts are not just symbols, they are tools of transformation, aimed at turning contested seas into controlled seas. As the Center for Maritime Strategy warned in 2024, “Control of the South China Sea is a principal aspect of China’s push for order leadership.” What’s at stake is not just territory or resources, it’s the very structure of maritime power, and who gets to define the rules in the Indo-Pacific.
Xi Jinping’s China 2049: Civilizational Power in Motion
The year 2049 isn’t just a milestone, it’s China’s mission. As the centenary of the People’s Republic approaches, Xi Jinping’s vision of “national rejuvenation” aims to restore China’s global stature, backed by economic might, military power, and ideological confidence. Beneath its poetic slogans lies a strategic blueprint: dominate key industries, challenge U.S.-led systems, and shape a new global order.
Economically, China is leveraging its massive scale, even at 4–5% growth, its gravity remains unmatched. Initiatives like the Belt and Road (BRI) span 150+ countries, turning ports, railways, and digital networks into levers of influence. Through parallel efforts, the Global Development, Security, and Civilization Initiatives, Beijing is offering an alternative to Western governance models, especially attractive to the Global South.
Militarily, China is racing toward its 2049 goal of building a “world-class” armed force. By 2027 and 2035, key benchmarks focus on combat readiness and technological superiority. The PLA is integrating AI, quantum tech, and big data, while the PLA Navy, now the world’s largest by fleet size, expands its global reach. Strategic dominance in the South China Sea is central, its fortified islands and missile systems serve both defense and projection.
Xi’s ideology blends Marxism, nationalism, and civilizational revival. The “Chinese Dream” is rooted in overcoming past humiliation and regaining rightful influence. Military-Civil Fusion turns civilian innovation into defense power, accelerating advances in semiconductors, AI, and space tech, especially in response to U.S. restrictions. In the Global South, China builds influence through aid, investment, and diplomacy, not charity, but strategic alignment. Many of these nations now support China’s stance on sovereignty, cyberspace, and human rights in global forums.
At the heart of this ambition lies Taiwan. Though not tied to the 2049 date, reunification is a symbolic keystone. Control of the South China Sea enhances Beijing’s leverage, securing sea lanes and staging areas while deterring U.S. intervention. Ultimately, China 2049 isn’t just a deadline, it’s a destination. Xi’s China aims not just to rise, but to reshape the rules, economically, militarily, and ideologically. And if current trajectories hold, it’s not a question of if, but when.
Can China Take Full Control Over SCS?
China aspires to dominate the South China Sea (SCS), but the reality is far more contested than complete control. Its expansive claim, based on the “nine-dash line” covering nearly 90% of the SCS, was invalidated by the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling under UNCLOS. Despite the ruling, Beijing continues to assert “historical rights,” deploying military, legal, and economic tools to enforce its claims.
China has firm control over the Paracel Islands, especially Woody Island, which hosts airstrips, missile systems, and surveillance platforms. In the Spratlys, it has transformed seven reefs into militarized artificial islands, three of which have 3,000-meter runways and robust missile defenses. At Scarborough Shoal, China has maintained effective control since 2012, using its powerful Coast Guard and maritime militia to enforce access denial and harass rival claimants.
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The Philippines has emerged as the most vocal challenger. Under President Marcos Jr., Manila has intensified resistance, especially around Second Thomas Shoal, where Philippine forces maintain a beached warship. Incidents involving Chinese water cannons, militia swarms, and maritime standoffs are now routine. Despite the 2016 legal victory affirming its EEZ rights, Manila faces relentless pressure.
Vietnam contests both China’s presence in the Paracels and its fishing bans within Vietnam’s EEZ. Hanoi protests routinely and resists Chinese interference in offshore oil operations, though with limited success. Malaysia and Indonesia have also pushed back Kuala Lumpur through energy exploration and Jakarta via coast guard deployments around the Natuna Islands. though both prefer calibrated diplomacy. Brunei remains low-profile, avoiding confrontation.
China’s dominance is built on a mix of militarization, legal rejectionism, and coercive “gray zone” tactics. Yet its position remains far from absolute. Regional resistance, international legal rulings, and the geopolitical interest of external powers like the U.S. and Japan mean the South China Sea remains a contested and volatile maritime theater. Control, for now, is strategic, but not total.
How things will Fare in the Future?
The South China Sea (2025–2030): Status Quo Plus
The South China Sea is entering a phase of intensified friction, what analysts call a “status quo plus.” China will double down on dominance without open conflict, relying on gray zone tactics: coast guard harassment, maritime militia blockades, and continued militarization of artificial islands with advanced missile, radar, and airfield systems.
Economically, Beijing will use trade and the Belt and Road Initiative as levers, pressuring neighbors while separating economic ties from territorial disputes. Southeast Asian claimants will push back: the Philippines, under Marcos Jr., will deepen defense pacts and boost patrols; Vietnam will quietly reinforce its outposts; others like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei will hedge carefully, balancing security with China against economic dependence.
ASEAN won’t unify, and the Code of Conduct talks will likely stall. External powers, led by the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, will step up patrols and regional support. U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations and military access agreements like EDCA will anchor this response. Tensions will rise. More ships and aircraft in contested waters raise the risk of miscalculation, especially without crisis hotlines or protocols. Any conflict over Taiwan could spill into the South China Sea, transforming it into a key battleground.
Environmental damage will worsen too, coral reefs and fisheries are already collapsing due to overfishing, pollution, and dredging, endangering food security. With China rejecting international rulings and pushing bilateral deals, and others favoring legal or multilateral routes, the diplomatic gridlock will persist. The South China Sea will remain militarized, congested, and unstable, with no peaceful resolution in sight.
