Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has warned China that any fatal incident involving Filipino citizens in the South China Sea would be deemed close to “an act of war,” necessitating a significant response from the Philippines and likely invoking support from its treaty allies, particularly the United States. This stern warning came during the Shangri-La Dialogue, a prominent security summit in Singapore attended by global defense chiefs, including representatives from the US and China.
Marcos’ comments were provoked by recent aggressive encounters between Chinese patrol ships and Philippine vessels. These incidents have seen Chinese ships firing water cannons at Philippine boats, leading to injuries but no fatalities so far. “If by a willful act a Filipino – not only a serviceman but any Filipino citizen – is killed, that is very, very close to what we define as an act of war, and we will respond accordingly,” Marcos stated. He stressed that the Philippines and its treaty partners share this standard.
The Chinese military has accused the Philippines of deflecting blame and provoking China. A Chinese spokesman claimed that the Philippines, with support from external powers, had broken promises and escalated tensions, especially around the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines has a military outpost.
In January 2024, satellite images revealed that Chinese coastguard vessels were blocking access to Second Thomas Shoal, also known as Ayungin Shoal by the Philippines. This strategically significant reef lies within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), where the Philippines has maintained a military base since the 1990s. Despite this, China continues to assert its territorial claims over the area, creating a persistent point of contention between the two nations.
By February 2024, tensions at Second Thomas Shoal escalated further when the Philippines attempted to reinforce and resupply its marines stationed aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded tank-landing ship serving as a military outpost on the shoal. Chinese coastguard and maritime militia vessels responded aggressively, intercepting the supply missions with water cannons and blocking tactics. These confrontational actions heightened the already volatile situation, drawing international concern.
The situation deteriorated in March 2024 when dangerous maneuvers by Chinese coast guard ships resulted in minor collisions with Philippine vessels off Second Thomas Shoal. The Chinese vessels were attempting to block Philippine coast guard and supply ships, exacerbating the territorial dispute and raising significant safety concerns in the region. This incident signified the physical risks and heightened the urgency for a resolution.
In response to the escalating harassment by Chinese forces, April 2024 saw a robust show of international solidarity with the Philippines. The United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines conducted joint naval patrols in the South China Sea. These patrols were designed to demonstrate collective support for the Philippines and to deter further Chinese aggression. This marked the first combined multinational patrol involving Japanese vessels and aircraft, signaling a significant step in regional defense cooperation.
The situation reached a critical juncture in May 2024 when Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued a stark warning to China. He declared that any Filipino citizen killed by China’s actions in the South China Sea would be considered “very close” to an act of war. This pronouncement followed a series of aggressive encounters, including the use of water cannons and deliberate collisions by Chinese vessels, which have severely strained bilateral relations. Marcos’ warning highlighted the severe implications of continued Chinese provocations and the potential for conflict escalation.
This standoff has raised fears of a broader conflict involving the US, bound by a mutual defense treaty to defend the Philippines if attacked. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed America’s “ironclad” commitment to the treaty but refrained from speculating on specific responses to hypothetical scenarios.
Austin described the harassment faced by the Philippines as “dangerous” and stated the importance of maintaining open communication channels with China to prevent unnecessary escalation. He highlighted ongoing efforts to resume direct military communication and establish a crisis communications working group.
In recent months, the US has intensified its military cooperation with the Philippines, conducting joint exercises and planning to enhance the country’s defense capabilities with advanced equipment, including drones and missile systems. The Philippines is also increasing its own military spending, acquiring missiles from India.
Marcos reiterated the Philippines’ commitment to resolving disputes through dialogue and diplomacy, aligning its actions with international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). He emphasized the country’s legal right to its maritime zones, affirmed by a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea.
The Philippine president highlighted that his country’s maritime boundaries are defined by international law, not arbitrary claims. He vowed to uphold the integrity of the West Philippine Sea, the official Philippine designation for its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. “We have submitted our assertions to rigorous legal scrutiny by the world’s leading jurists. The lines we draw on our waters are based on international law,” Marcos stated. He declared that as president, he had a solemn commitment to defend these waters and that Filipinos would not yield.
Marcos highlighted the global significance of peace and stability in the South China Sea, noting that the region is a critical passageway for half of the world’s trade. He called for all nations to recognize their stake in maintaining stability and for their voices to be heard equally in resolving the issue.
Despite his firm stance, Marcos expressed hope for a peaceful resolution, envisioning the South China Sea as a “sea of peace, stability, and prosperity,” in line with the aspirations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). He reaffirmed the Philippines’ dedication to addressing challenges through peaceful means.
The issue of China-Philippines tensions was also a focal point during a meeting between Austin and his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun at the summit. Both sides acknowledged the need for improved communication to avoid conflict, with Dong describing the meeting as “positive, practical, and constructive.”
The Chinese coast guard’s actions and Manila’s determined pushback have raised concerns that the long-running territorial dispute in the strategic South China Sea could trigger armed conflict. The Philippines regularly sends resupply ships to the Sierra Madre, a rusting former US military vessel it deliberately ran aground in 1999 on Second Thomas Shoal, where it has stationed soldiers.
Since early last year, China has stepped up efforts to disrupt these resupply missions with coast guard and maritime militia ships. In 2023, Manila reported that a Chinese ship targeted its vessel with a laser, and last year several ships collided due to what the Philippines described as Chinese blocking maneuvers.
Marcos’ remarks followed a speech to defense ministers, military chiefs, diplomats, and analysts at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum, where he described the Philippines as a protector of a regional security order based on international law and treaties. “Our efforts stand in stark contrast to a certain actor,” he said, adding that the Philippines was “on the front lines” of efforts to preserve the integrity of UNCLOS, which governs the rights of coastal states.
China’s claim over the South China Sea almost in its entirety clashes with the economic rights and, in some cases, sovereignty of several coastal states under UNCLOS. Marcos has made his country China’s most vocal challenger on the issue since taking office in mid-2022. He has also reinvigorated Manila’s alliance with the US, overseeing the largest bilateral military exercises in three decades and allowing US forces increased access to Philippine bases.
“I do not intend to yield. Filipinos do not yield,” Marcos asserted. He emphasized the right of regional countries to determine their own future rather than being treated as a “theater” for great power competition. Strategic competition between the US and China, he argued, was constraining regional nations’ choices and exacerbating flashpoints.
“China’s determining influence is a permanent fact,” Marcos said. “But at the same time, the stabilizing presence of the US is important.” The ongoing dispute and its potential implications for regional and global security remain a critical concern as countries navigate the complex dynamics of power and sovereignty in the South China Sea.
