Once heralded as a formidable alliance, the political partnership between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, has spectacularly unraveled, unleashing a wave of mutual accusations that threaten to upset Marcos’s reform agenda and inject uncertainty into the country’s political landscape. The alliance, which propelled both families to power in the 2022 elections, had long been anticipated to fray, but the speed and ferocity of the recent public exchanges have left analysts surprised. The dissolution of this political union, anticipated by some, has unfolded with unexpected speed and intensity, leaving analysts astounded by the public exchanges laden with mutual accusations, primarily centered around drug use. The rift threatens not only personal relations, but also the extensive reform agenda set forth by President Marcos.
At the forefront of this political upheaval is Sebastian Duterte, the outspoken son of former President Rodrigo Duterte and the incumbent mayor of Davao City. Beyond the realm of typical political disagreements, Sebastian has taken a bold step, urging President Marcos to resign. His critique delves into the heart of policy flaws, particularly highlighting a perceived precarious pro-U.S. foreign stance that, according to Sebastian, poses risks to innocent Filipino lives.
While President Marcos attempts to downplay tensions and assert the continuity of the coalition, political analysts are sounding alarms about the potential ramifications. The swift breakdown of the formal alliance raises concerns about the stability of Marcos’s ambitious plans encompassing economic growth, job creation, infrastructure overhaul, and military strengthening. Temario Rivera, chairman of the Center for People Empowerment in Governance think-tank, warns of potential divisions within the military, underscoring the risks to governance and stability.
The alliance between the influential Marcos and Duterte families, solidified in 2022 with Sara Duterte running as Marcos’s vice-presidential candidate, seemed unassailable. However, early signs of strain emerged as Marcos shifted away from Duterte’s pro-China stance, rekindling ties with the United States. Disagreements deepened over peace negotiations with communist rebels and Marcos’s contemplation of rejoining the International Criminal Court.
The public rift between the two families reached a climax when former President Duterte, in a fiery speech, labeled President Marcos a “drug addict.” This incendiary accusation prompted a retaliatory comment from President Marcos, who suggested that Duterte’s remarks might be influenced by the painkiller fentanyl, acknowledged by Duterte for pain relief. This exchange not only highlighted personal acrimonies, but also laid bare political fault lines, possibly connected to the anticipated 2028 presidential race, where Sara Duterte is expected to be a contender.
In the wake of these political fireworks, the Philippine government has issued a stern warning, declaring its readiness to employ “authority and forces” to suppress any attempts at dividing the nation. The catalyst for this strong stance was former President Duterte’s call for the independence of Mindanao, his home region, amidst the crumbling alliance with President Marcos. The disagreements revolve around proposed constitutional amendments, with Marcos advocating reforms to attract foreign investments, while Duterte accuses him of using these changes to extend his stay in power.
National security adviser Eduardo Ano underscored the government’s commitment to thwart any secession attempts, specifically referencing recent calls related to Mindanao. Ano warned that such endeavours could jeopardize the gains made through the government’s peace deal with former separatist groups, particularly the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which signed a peace agreement in 2014 for enhanced autonomy in the Bangsamoro Muslim region.
In response to the government’s firm stance, Bangsamoro’s chief minister, Ahod Ebrahim, expressed commitment to the peace agreement. Government peace process adviser Carlito Galvez Jr. called on Filipinos to reject destabilization calls, emphasizing the need for national unity. The escalating tensions prompted Philippine armed forces chief Romeo Brawner to rally soldiers to remain united, loyal to the constitution, and committed to the chain of command.
As the political landscape simmers with uncertainty, the discord takes a personal turn with Duterte accusing President Marcos of being a drug addict and warning of attempts to remove constitutional term limits. President Marcos, in turn, suggests that Duterte’s statements may be clouded by the painkiller fentanyl. Beyond personal animosities, the political rift delves into critical issues such as proposed changes to the constitution and divergent foreign policies.
President Duterte, restricted by the constitution from seeking a second term in 2022, has historically had a strained association with President Marcos, criticizing him as a spoiled child and a weak leader. The complexity deepens with speculations of Sara Duterte’s potential entry into the 2028 presidential race, setting the stage for what analysts predict could be “open warfare” in the political landscape.
President Marcos’s foreign policy, distinct from Duterte’s, includes a tougher stance against China in the South China Sea and strengthened ties with the United States. The strain intensifies with reports of international criminal court investigators visiting the Philippines, with President Marcos refusing cooperation. In this charged environment, Sebastian Duterte’s public call for President Marcos’s resignation adds fuel to the political fire, alleging a dangerous foreign policy and rising criminality.
Sara Duterte, a key figure in the alliance, attends the president’s rally but openly defies some policies, particularly the peace talks with communist rebels. Despite public disagreements, Sara Duterte affirms her commitment to her role in the education ministry while hinting at mistreatment from certain sectors within the president’s circle. The deepening political schism raises critical questions about the future trajectory of Philippine politics and the stability of the alliance that brought President Marcos to power.
Against this backdrop, President Marcos’s push for constitutional amendments takes center stage. In an interview with GMA News TV, he advocates revising the 1987 constitution to align with the demands of a globalized world, focusing on economic provisions. Marcos argues that these changes are essential to bolster the economy and attract increased foreign investment. While not ruling out adjustments to political aspects, he emphasizes prioritizing amendments to economic clauses, including those limiting foreign ownership.
This push for constitutional change faces staunch opposition from the Philippine Senate, including Marcos’s sister among its members. The Senate issues a manifesto condemning what they perceive as a “sinister and underhanded attempt” to amend the constitution without Senate involvement. Concerns are raised that the proposed changes might extend beyond economic considerations, potentially removing term limits for the president, currently restricted to a single six-year term. This opposition reflects a broader historical context, where the Senate has been a target for those attempting to undermine the country’s democratic foundations, as highlighted in their collective statement on Tuesday.
As the Philippines grapples with this intricate web of political turmoil, personal animosities, and constitutional debates, the nation stands at a crossroads, with the future trajectory of its governance and stability hanging in the balance. The unfolding chapters of this gripping political saga are closely watched, especially with mid-term elections in 2025 looming on the horizon, promising to influence legislative agendas based on shifting loyalties and candidate endorsements.
