“Scarborough Shoal is not just a cluster of rocks; it’s a litmus test for sovereignty, international law, and the future balance of power in the South China Sea.”
Nestled in the turbulent waters of the South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal is more than just a ring of submerged rocks and reefs—it’s a flashpoint in one of the most heated territorial disputes of our time. Claimed by both China and the Philippines, this seemingly inconspicuous area holds immense strategic and economic value, making it a magnet for conflict. From the riches of marine resources to its pivotal location in the global shipping network, Scarborough Shoal symbolizes a clash of ambitions, national pride, and geopolitical muscle. But as tensions flare and warships patrol its surrounding waters, the burning question remains: who truly has the rightful claim to this contested paradise?
Scarborough Shoal: A Battleground of Claims, Interests, and History
Scarborough Shoal, known as Bajo de Masinloc in the Philippines and Huangyan Dao in China, lies approximately 220 kilometers west of the Philippine island of Luzon in the South China Sea. Stretching across 150 square kilometers, this coral-rich reef is far more than a marine ecosystem, it has become a focal point of geopolitical tension. Home to some of the world’s richest fishing grounds and potential reserves of oil and gas beneath its seabed, Scarborough Shoal is strategically significant in a region critical to global trade. With annual trade worth $3.4 trillion flowing through the South China Sea, its location makes it a coveted asset for competing powers.
A Clash of Historical Claims
The competing claims over Scarborough Shoal are deeply rooted in history, colonial treaties, and evolving interpretations of sovereignty. For the Philippines, the shoal’s inclusion in historical agreements like the 1898 Treaty of Paris, which ceded the Philippines from Spain to the United States, strengthens its claim. When the Philippines gained independence in 1946, the shoal, located just 220 kilometers from Luzon, was firmly considered part of the Philippine archipelago. This understanding of proximity and historical governance supports the Philippines’ territorial rights, which have been consistently upheld in international forums.
On the other hand, China bases its claims on ancient maps and navigational records that reference its historical influence in the South China Sea. The controversial Nine-Dash Line introduced by China in 1947 asserts territorial control over vast stretches of the sea, including Scarborough Shoal. These historical maps are often criticized for their ambiguity and lack of clear legal standing under modern international law. As Dr. Carlyle Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales, points out, “While China emphasizes historical maps to support its claims, these maps are often ambiguous and lack clear legal standing under international law.”
International Legal Frameworks and Competing Interpretations
The dispute is further complicated by international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to which both China and the Philippines are signatories. According to UNCLOS, Scarborough Shoal lies within the Philippines’ 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This legal framework, reinforced by the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, affirms the Philippines’ sovereignty over the shoal. Despite this, China has dismissed the ruling, claiming that its historical rights predate modern legal frameworks. The Philippine claim over Scarborough Shoal is legally grounded in UNCLOS and the 2016 ruling, which states that China’s Nine-Dash Line has no legal basis under international law. Yet, China’s de facto control since 2012, marked by the deployment of Coast Guard vessels and maritime militias—has led to continuous tension. The 2012 standoff between Philippine Navy forces and Chinese vessels, which resulted in China taking effective control of the shoal, remains a vivid example of this ongoing conflict. The Philippines continues to assert its territorial rights despite the growing presence of Chinese forces.
Modern Developments: The Escalating Tug-of-War Over Scarborough Shoal
Scarborough Shoal remains a flashpoint in the South China Sea dispute, with tensions escalating as both China and the Philippines assert competing claims. Since China’s effective control of the shoal in 2012, the situation has only intensified, with China maintaining a military and maritime presence, deploying Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels to assert its dominance. The Philippines continues to rely on the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, which invalidated China’s Nine-Dash Line and affirmed the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) rights, including over Scarborough Shoal.
China’s claims are rooted in the Nine-Dash Line, which is based on historical maps, but these claims are not universally recognized under international law. Beijing’s continued militarization of the shoal has sparked concerns over its strategic intentions, with experts like Dr. Gregory Poling arguing that China’s aim is not legal ownership but practical control. The shoal’s proximity to major sea lanes and potential resources such as oil and gas only heighten its strategic importance.
The Philippines faces economic hardship as its fishermen are often barred from accessing traditional fishing grounds around Scarborough Shoal. Dr. Jay Batongbacal emphasizes that the loss of access to these waters has severely impacted local communities, both economically and socially. Filipino fishermen, once reliant on the rich marine resources of the shoal, now face harassment and militarization of their waters by Chinese forces.
As the world watches the developments around Scarborough Shoal, the stakes are clear: this isn’t just a local dispute—it’s a litmus test for international law, regional sovereignty, and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
Regional Dynamics: A Battleground of Power and Influence
The Scarborough Shoal dispute is not just about competing territorial claims; it is deeply enmeshed in the broader power struggles that define the South China Sea. Historically, this region has been a focal point of conflict, with competing colonial interests and strategic rivalries shaping its geopolitical landscape. Today, it has become a stage for modern-day power projection, resource competition, and military assertiveness.
The rise of China as a regional powerhouse has significantly shifted the balance of power in the South China Sea. Backed by economic strength and a growing military arsenal, Beijing has adopted a more assertive posture, employing its Nine-Dash Line to justify expansive claims. This has placed it on a collision course with the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations. “The rise of China as a regional power has led to increased assertiveness in the South China Sea, leading to heightened tensions with other claimants, including the Philippines,” explains Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Fellow for Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Adding another layer to the conflict is the growing US-China rivalry. The United States, seeking to maintain freedom of navigation and counter China’s growing influence, has expressed strong support for the Philippines’ claims. This was evident in the 2016 arbitration ruling, which Washington openly backed, and in recent joint military exercises aimed at reinforcing Manila’s maritime security. As Dr. Rapp-Hooper notes, “The US-China rivalry has further complicated the Scarborough Shoal dispute, with the US expressing support for the Philippines and its claims.”
Regional alliances and multilateral organizations such as ASEAN have struggled to find common ground in addressing the dispute. While individual member states like Vietnam and Malaysia also face territorial challenges with China, ASEAN’s collective response has often been muted, reflecting differing national priorities and economic dependencies on Beijing.
The Scarborough Shoal dispute encapsulates a broader trend in the South China Sea: a resource-rich, strategically vital area caught between the ambitions of a rising China, the resistance of smaller nations like the Philippines, and the strategic calculus of external powers like the US. As tensions simmer, Scarborough Shoal remains a flashpoint, illustrating how regional dynamics continue to shape the contest for dominance in one of the world’s most contested waters.
Current Situation: A Perpetual Standoff at Scarborough Shoal
The current state of the Scarborough Shoal dispute remains a tense and volatile standoff, where legal rulings clash with on-the-ground realities. For the Philippines, the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling under UNCLOS stands as a cornerstone of its claim. This landmark decision not only invalidated China’s Nine-Dash Line but also affirmed the Philippines’ sovereign rights within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), including Scarborough Shoal. The ruling has been largely symbolic, as China has outright rejected its legitimacy and maintained a strong presence in the area.
The Philippines continues to advocate for adherence to international law. Still, its fishermen face significant challenges, often being barred or harassed by Chinese Coast Guard vessels despite the PCA ruling. These incidents, frequently caught on camera, highlight the disparity between international legal victories and practical enforcement on the water. Filipino fishermen, whose livelihoods depend on access to the shoal’s abundant resources, remain at the heart of this human dimension of the conflict.
On the ground, the situation reflects an asymmetry of power. While the Philippines has sought to bolster its maritime defense capabilities and leaned on its alliance with the United States for support, China has maintained its dominance by deploying patrol vessels, maritime militias, and surveillance equipment around the shoal.
The United States, a key ally of the Philippines, has reinforced its support by conducting joint naval exercises and promising to uphold the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) in the face of Chinese aggression. Yet, the question remains: how much can the Philippines rely on external actors to assert its sovereign rights effectively?
In this ongoing struggle, Scarborough Shoal is more than a disputed territory—it is a symbol of larger issues, from the enforcement of international law to the impact of great power rivalries on smaller nations. For now, the shoal remains an unresolved flashpoint, embodying the complexities of maritime sovereignty in the South China Sea.
Current Developments: Intensifying Tensions at Scarborough Shoal
China’s Escalated Military Presence
In late December 2024, China’s People’s Liberation Army conducted large-scale “combat readiness patrols” around Scarborough Shoal, deploying both naval and air forces. These exercises, described as a significant show of strength, underscore Beijing’s commitment to asserting its claims over the disputed area.
Formalizing Claims Through Baseline Declarations
In November 2024, China published baselines around Scarborough Shoal, effectively delineating it as part of its territorial waters. This move came in response to the Philippines’ recent legislation defining its maritime zones in the area, which Beijing views as a violation of its sovereignty.
Philippines’ Legislative Actions
The Philippines has enacted new maritime laws to clarify its territorial claims, including those over Scarborough Shoal. These laws aim to strengthen Manila’s legal standing in the ongoing dispute and assert its rights under international law.
International Responses and Regional Implications
The United States has reiterated its support for the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty, conducting joint naval exercises and affirming its commitment to regional stability. ASEAN countries continue to approach the situation cautiously, balancing their economic ties with China against concerns over territorial integrity and regional security. The recent developments highlight the escalating tensions and the complex interplay of national interests, international law, and regional alliances in the South China Sea dispute.
Geopolitical Implications: Scarborough Shoal as a Strategic Flashpoint
Strategic Importance: A Vital Choke Point for Global Trade
Scarborough Shoal is not just a small island in the South China Sea; it is a strategically significant maritime feature that holds immense importance for both regional and global powers. Its location, sitting at the crossroads of vital sea lanes, places it at the heart of one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, connecting Asia with Europe, the Middle East, and beyond. The South China Sea, through which $3.37 trillion in trade passes annually, has long been recognized as a critical maritime choke point. In this context, control over Scarborough Shoal offers leverage over these sea lanes, essential for both military and economic purposes.
For China, the shoal represents a potential military base that could extend its dominance in the South China Sea, enabling control over the surrounding waters. This would enhance China’s power projection capabilities and provide an advantageous position for its naval operations. To military significance, the shoal’s proximity to strategic shipping lanes gives China leverage over regional trade flows and access to resources in the broader South China Sea area. As Dr. Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explains, “The South China Sea is a critical maritime choke point for global trade, making it a vital strategic interest for both regional and extra-regional powers.”
The potential for Scarborough Shoal to evolve into a flashpoint for conflict cannot be understated. As China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea continues, the unresolved disputes over territorial claims increase the risk of miscalculation and escalation. With militaries from the U.S., China, and other countries frequently operating in the region, a single incident could ignite a larger confrontation. Regional powers such as the Philippines and Vietnam, along with the presence of U.S. military assets under its Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), further complicate the situation. The South China Sea disputes, including those surrounding Scarborough Shoal, could easily become a trigger for broader regional or even global conflict.
Economic Importance: Resources at Stake
The economic stakes in the South China Sea are also substantial. The region is rich in natural resources, including fisheries, oil, and gas. The annual fish catch in the South China Sea alone is valued at over $20 billion, with Filipino, Vietnamese, and Chinese fishermen all heavily reliant on its waters. Scarborough Shoal, a key fishing ground, plays a vital role in feeding millions and sustaining the livelihoods of coastal communities. Control over the shoal gives China significant leverage over the fishing industry, disrupting not only Filipino fishermen but also the economies of other Southeast Asian countries.
Beyond fisheries, the South China Sea holds vast reserves of oil and gas, with estimated natural gas reserves as high as 190 trillion cubic feet. The shoal’s proximity to potential underwater oil and gas fields elevates its strategic value, as countries compete for rights to explore and exploit these resources. As tensions rise, the question of who controls the shoal becomes inextricably linked to the broader battle for access to these critical resources.
Great Power Rivalry: U.S. and China in a Standoff
The geopolitical landscape surrounding Scarborough Shoal is further complicated by the rivalry between the United States and China. As China asserts its territorial claims and expands its influence, the U.S. has increasingly challenged Beijing’s actions through Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), which assert navigational rights in waters claimed by China. In 2021, the U.S. Navy conducted operations near Scarborough Shoal to contest China’s claims and ensure unimpeded access to international waters. These operations, while conducted in accordance with international law, underscore the growing tension between the two superpowers. The U.S. views China’s militarization of the South China Sea as a threat to regional stability and freedom of navigation, making the region a key focal point in the broader U.S.-China rivalry. This geopolitical tug-of-war not only exacerbates tensions in the region but also draws extra-regional powers into the equation, creating a complex web of alliances and interests.
Environmental Concerns: A Price for Dominance
While the economic and military stakes are high, the environmental implications of the ongoing dispute over Scarborough Shoal are equally concerning. China’s actions in the region, particularly its dredging operations and fishing practices, have caused significant damage to the coral reefs surrounding the shoal. These reefs are critical to maintaining marine biodiversity and the health of the broader South China Sea ecosystem.
Satellite imagery has documented the destruction of coral beds and the alteration of marine habitats due to China’s reclamation activities, which often involve dredging sand to build artificial islands and military structures. These actions have long-term consequences not just for regional ecosystems, but for the global environment as well. As marine resources continue to deplete and coral reefs die off, the delicate balance of marine life in the South China Sea could be severely disrupted.
Expert Opinions and Analysis on the Scarborough Shoal Dispute
Dr. Gregory Poling (CSIS):
“China’s goal is not legal ownership but practical control of Scarborough Shoal.”
Poling highlights China’s strategy of exerting de facto control through military presence, Coast Guard, and militia vessels, bypassing the need for legal recognition. This allows China to dominate the region economically and militarily while sidelining the sovereignty claims of the Philippines despite the 2016 UNCLOS ruling.
Richard Heydarian (Political Analyst):
“The Philippines is caught between asserting sovereignty and avoiding escalation.”
Heydarian emphasizes the Philippines’ challenge of protecting its sovereign rights without provoking conflict. While the arbitration ruling supports the Philippines, China’s militarization forces Manila to balance defense efforts with diplomacy to avoid full-scale confrontation.
Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund):
“The South China Sea disputes, including Scarborough Shoal, are a litmus test for the future of international order.”
Glaser points to the shoal as a symbol of broader geopolitical struggles. China’s actions undermine UNCLOS and the rules-based order, raising questions about the future enforcement of international maritime law and regional stability.
Conclusion: A Symbol of Regional Tensions and Global Stakes
The question of who owns Scarborough Shoal remains unresolved, symbolizing the broader geopolitical struggle in the South China Sea. For the Philippines, the shoal represents sovereignty, livelihood, and a test of international law. For China, it is a strategic asset to project power and assert dominance in a region critical to its interests. Despite the 2016 arbitration ruling affirming the Philippines’ rights, China’s rejection of the decision and ongoing militarization highlight the limits of international legal frameworks in curbing unilateral actions.
Scarborough Shoal is not just a territorial dispute; it’s a litmus test for the future of maritime law, regional stability, and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. As this tug-of-war continues, the shoal serves as a reminder of the urgent need for diplomacy, adherence to international norms, and cooperation to prevent escalation in one of the world’s most contested waters.
