Introduction
The Falklands Islands Conflict in 1982 saw Argentina and the United Kingdom fighting over ownership of the islands, known as the “Malvinas” to Argentina. After Argentina invaded, the UK sent ships to reclaim them, leading to a war with casualties and strained relations. Similarly, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has vowed to resist China’s aggression in the South China Sea, focusing on the Second Thomas Shoal where China attacked a Philippine ship. Despite a court ruling against China’s claim, tensions persist, prompting condemnation from the United States. Marcos’s stance marks a shift towards closer ties with the US. To address these tensions, the Philippines must use diplomacy, multilateral cooperation, and legal approaches, along with media influence and defense self-reliance. Additionally, by using media influence to expose “gray-zone” activities, raising public awareness, and improving defense self-reliance, the Philippines can better tackle escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. There are many options on the table that Philippines can work with to put a full stop towards Chinese aggressive acts in the South China sea.
Situation in the south China Sea
The South China Sea has been a focal point of serious clashes, notably between Vietnam and China, and the Philippines and China. These tensions have roots in incidents like China’s seizure of the Paracels from Vietnam in 1974 and a clash in the Spratlys in 1988. The situation escalated in 2012 with a standoff over the Scarborough Shoal between China and the Philippines, leading to anti-China protests in Vietnam and legal action by the Philippines against China in 2013. Tensions heightened further when China deployed a drilling rig near the Paracel Islands in 2014 and when a Chinese trawler was accused of ramming a Filipino fishing boat in 2019.
The territorial disputes involve several countries and extend beyond the South China Sea to areas like the Senkaku Islands and Socotra Rock in the East China Sea. China’s extensive territorial claims, represented by the nine-dash line, have escalated tensions, leading to island-building activities in the Spratly and Paracel Islands since 2013 and freedom of navigation operations by multiple states.
Recently, confrontations between Philippine and Chinese vessels have emphasized the persistent tensions. In January 2024, ASEAN issued a statement addressing the South China Sea issue, reaffirming its commitment to peaceful dispute resolution. However, Chinese coast guard ships have been obstructing Philippine resupply ships near disputed shoals, and recent satellite imagery has revealed China’s intensified land reclamation efforts in the South China Sea. These actions raise concerns about destabilizing arms buildups and the erosion of international maritime laws, complicating efforts to resolve the longstanding disputes.
Option for the Philippines
The Philippines has several strategic options to deal with the challenges posed by China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
One of these is diplomatic engagement, which involves prioritizing dialogues and negotiations for peaceful resolutions. This approach depicts Philippines’ commitment to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Another strategy is multilateral cooperation, where the Philippines can strengthen alliances with ASEAN partners, the United States, and Japan. This strategy aims to consolidate collective security measures, thereby maintaining regional stability.
The Philippines can also enhance maritime domain awareness by improving surveillance capabilities. This strategy involves investing in technology and human resources to monitor and respond effectively to China’s activities in the disputed waters.
The country can also align with like-minded nations to exert collective economic leverage over China. This could involve trade negotiations or economic sanctions as a group, amplifying the impact of the Philippines’ economic leverage. This could involve forming a coalition of countries that share similar concerns about China’s activities in the South China Sea.
The collective economic leverage could be exerted in several ways. One method could be through trade negotiations. Another method could be through economic sanctions. The coalition could agree to impose economic sanctions on China as a group.
The collective approach amplifies the impact of the Philippines’ economic leverage. By acting as a group, the coalition can present a united front, making it harder for China to ignore or dismiss their concerns. It’s a complex but potentially powerful tool in the Philippines’ strategic arsenal.
Lastly, capacity building involves investing in the military and coast guard capabilities to protect national interests. This could include modernizing naval assets and enhancing the training of personnel.
Diplomatic protest with China
The Philippines has responded diplomatically to China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea. This includes incidents at the Second Thomas Shoal where China’s coastguard allegedly used water cannons on a civilian boat, leading Manila to summon Beijing’s envoy. The Philippines accuses China of interfering with its activities within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and demands Chinese vessels leave the area.
China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea, including the Second Thomas Shoal, have been contentious. The Philippines has maintained a military presence there since grounding an old warship in 1999 to assert its claims. China’s refusal to recognize international rulings, such as the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, has sustained tensions.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., in office since 2022, resists yielding to Beijing’s demands and is firm against perceived Chinese aggression. This coincides with his efforts to strengthen ties with the U.S., including expanded military cooperation. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro challenges China to pursue arbitration under international law to clarify its maritime claims.
In addition to these measures, the Philippines could also consider Track II Diplomacy, which involves non-official dialogues and problem-solving activities aimed at building relationships and encouraging new thinking that can inform the official process. This could provide a platform for frank discussions, away from the public eye and the pressures of formal diplomacy.
Moreover, the Philippines can focus on concrete negotiations with China, moving beyond the rhetoric of confrontation. Such an approach would require patience, flexibility, and a commitment to dialogue, but it could potentially lead to more sustainable outcomes in the South China Sea dispute.
Diplomatic support from the international community
Amid rising tensions with China in the South China Sea, the Philippines has leaned on alliances and international law to assert its sovereignty. A hotline was established in January 2023 during President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to China for direct communication on maritime and border issues. However, its effectiveness was questioned when Chinese Coast Guard vessels fired water cannons at Philippine boats near Ayungin Shoal in August 2023, and China did not respond via the hotline.
Post-incident discussions revealed doubts about China’s commitment to peaceful resolution. Tensions escalated with China’s publication of a new “10-dash line” map, expanding its territorial claims, which the Philippines rejected as a violation of international law. Despite voicing condemnation of China’s actions alongside other affected countries, concerns over Beijing’s assertiveness persist.
Efforts to address these challenges through diplomatic channels and ASEAN cooperation have been made, but divisions within the regional bloc remain. Under President Marcos Jr.’s leadership, the Philippines remains hopeful and emphasizes alliances, international law, and strengthening military capabilities.
FONOPS, Drills and exercises
U.S. naval and air forces conduct Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge excessive maritime claims and uphold internationally-recognized rights. The South China Sea, a strategic global shipping lane, has been a focus for FONOPs due to territorial disputes among several nations.
In the past year and a half, the U.S. has conducted five FONOPs, each targeting different types of excessive claims. The first three operations challenged the requirement for ships to provide notification or obtain permission before transiting through another state’s territorial sea under innocent passage. The fourth operation contested China’s excessive straight baseline claims around the Paracel Islands. The fifth operation targeted Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, which China occupies, to challenge the existence of an illegal territorial sea around it. Despite not taking a position on sovereignty disputes in the region, the U.S. remains committed to protesting illegal maritime claims that restrict freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
These operations uphold the principles of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which the Philippines strongly supports. By challenging China’s excessive claims, FONOPs indirectly support the Philippines’ territorial claims in the disputed waters. The presence of U.S. naval and air forces during these operations acts as a deterrent against potential aggressive actions, providing a sense of security for the Philippines.
Defense pacts and bilateral security guarantees
The U.S. and the Philippines have established Bilateral Defense Guidelines, reaffirming mutual defense commitments under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. This step towards modernizing alliance cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region is crucial in response to threats, including China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea and its stance towards Taiwan. To address these challenges, Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. are strengthening alliances and enhancing coordination.
China’s coercive behavior in the South and East China Seas threatens the interests of Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. In response, these allies are leveraging their military alliances to counter Chinese aggression and safeguard regional stability.
Significant progress has been made in strengthening the U.S.-Philippines alliance through initiatives like the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and mutual defense guidelines. Japan has also emerged as a key security partner for the Philippines, with agreements facilitating military cooperation and capacity-building efforts.
In the event of a Taiwan contingency, the Philippines’ strategic location could play a vital role in supporting U.S. and Japanese responses. To counter Chinese gray zone coercion, the three allies must enhance coordination and develop joint responses, with the Philippines addressing disinformation and economic vulnerabilities.
Capacity building and self-preparation
In response to growing security threats from China, the Philippines has enhanced its defense capacity and self-reliance. Key developments in 2024 include the approval of the Philippine Self-Reliant Defense Posture Program, which boosts domestic military production and rationalizes defense acquisition processes. An Office of the Undersecretary for Defense Technology Research and Industry Development will be established to oversee domestic production, research and development, and promote the local defense industry.
While focusing on self-reliance, the Philippines has also strategically imported defense equipment, acquiring BrahMos cruise missiles from India, nine vessels from Israel, and an advanced radar system from Japan. The Department of Science and Technology initiated Project COBRA to develop locally controlled and operated armaments, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers. Despite economic challenges, the Philippines remains committed to defense modernization.
Emergency Hotlines and Avoiding Polarization
The Philippines should approach crisis management by understanding the limitations of hotlines, which China views differently than the U.S. Rather than relying solely on hotlines, the Philippines should strengthen internal coordination within its government to ensure clear communication during crises. Hotlines should be used pragmatically to prevent escalation and facilitate de-escalation. The Philippines should build trust with China through transparency and consistent communication, learning from existing hotlines like the Japan-China one. Balancing sovereignty assertion with cooperative efforts will uphold national interests while contributing to regional security and stability.
Exposing ‘Grey Zones’ in SCS via Media
The Philippines can use its media power to reveal China’s “gray-zone” activities. Accurate reporting of incidents involving the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia can increase international understanding. The Philippines should clarify gray-zone tactics, such as island-building and militia harassment, and collaborate with ASEAN partners to establish a fact-checking unit and real-time information sharing platforms to counter misinformation in the Indo-Pacific region.
