A Brief
Vietnam’s strategic outlook in the South China Sea is deeply rooted in both historical and contemporary considerations. This key region, nestled in the Pacific Ocean, is bordered by several neighboring nations, including Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines, China, and Taiwan. Notably, it serves as a crucial conduit for global trade, with approximately one-third of the world’s trade transiting through its vital sea lanes. Adding to its significance, the presence of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, the largest U.S. fleet forward-deployed in the area, reinforces the strategic importance of Vietnam in this region.
A historical Perspective
Following the Vietnam War and the reunification of North and South Vietnam in 1975, the nation confronted various challenges, including its involvement in a conflict in Cambodia and a prolonged border dispute with China from 1979 to 1989. These complex issues, coupled with the lasting impacts of the war, resulted in Vietnam’s economy falling behind its Southeast Asian counterparts. Despite the cessation of conventional conflicts, Vietnam grappled with economic stagnation. However, the turning point came in December 1986, during the Sixth National Party Congress, when the Doi Moi policy was introduced. This comprehensive program of economic and political reforms aimed to transition from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one.
The resolution passed during the Sixth National Party Congress underscored the significance of peace for economic development and emphasized the establishment of peaceful relationships with all states, regardless of their socio-political systems. Vietnam significantly downsized its standing defense force, introducing the concepts of “people’s war” and “all-people’s national defense,” which highlighted the involvement of the entire population in the nation’s protection. In the years that followed, Vietnam normalized its relations with China in 1991, became a member of ASEAN in 1995, and joined the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in 1998.
In 1998, Vietnam unveiled its first Defense White Paper (DWP), which identified major threats, including economic decline, political and security challenges, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and non-traditional security issues like smuggling and illegal fishing within its waters.
In 2004, Vietnam published its second DWP, reaffirming its dedication to peace and self-defense and expressing its opposition to military alliances and foreign military bases on its territory. The DWP 2004 also recognized the significance of addressing unresolved disputes concerning sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and non-traditional security concerns.
By 2007, Vietnam had introduced its first comprehensive maritime strategy, titled “Vietnam’s Maritime Strategy towards the Year 2020,” with the aim of developing a robust maritime and coastal economy. This strategy gave priority to bolstering the country’s armed forces, particularly focusing on the Navy, Air Force, marine police, border protection force, maritime militia, and self-defense force. These forces were tasked with protecting fishermen and supporting activities related to the exploration of maritime resources within Vietnam’s maritime zones.
The escalating tensions in the South China Sea brought forth challenges from China, including warnings to foreign oil and gas companies engaged in joint exploration efforts with Vietnam. In response to these challenges, Vietnam needed to enhance its defense diplomacy, seek international support, and invest in maritime forces capable of upholding national sovereignty. The DWP 2009 reiterated Vietnam’s commitment to resolving disputes through peaceful means in accordance with international laws.
Geography at play
Vietnam’s extensive 3,260-kilometer coastline along the western South China Sea is rich in fisheries and vast hydrocarbon reserves. While estimates of these resources may vary, it is evident that a significant portion lies within the Exclusive Economic Zones claimed by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. These overlapping claims have given rise to jurisdictional disputes, particularly due to China’s expansive ‘new ten dash line’ claims.
In this geopolitical landscape, Vietnam’s strategic significance becomes pronounced. Positioned as a substantial obstacle to China’s southward maritime expansion, Vietnam is marked by unresolved territorial and maritime disputes with China. Recognized as a key player in the regional dynamics of this vital waterbody, Vietnam’s role is acknowledged by major maritime powers, including the United States, China, Japan, India, Russia, and Australia.
Security and Maritime Challenges to Vietnam
Vietnam confronts a substantial maritime security challenges, primarily focused on safeguarding its territorial claims, sovereignty, and national interests in a region rife with disputes. These disputes extend to claims on the Paracel and Spratly Islands and the assertion of jurisdiction over an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and continental shelf as defined by UNCLOS baselines. Of particular concern is China’s assertive actions in the region, including the takeover of the Paracel Islands and extensive construction efforts in the Spratly Islands. Vietnam is unwavering in its commitment to defending these claims, which have become a paramount security concern as China’s influence in the South China Sea grows. Moreover, Vietnam grapples with non-traditional security challenges, such as transnational crime, Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated fishing, cyber threats, environmental degradation, climate change, terrorism, illegal immigration, and pandemics, with piracy, smuggling, and climate change emerging as the most significant non-traditional maritime security issues for the nation.
China’s assertive stance in Territories Surrounding the South China Sea
Disputes over sovereignty in the South China Sea involve multiple nations, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Taiwan, and these disputes revolve around claims to islands and maritime rights. China’s sovereignty claims in the area are rooted in historical connections dating back to various Chinese dynasties, ancient maps, and actions during the Opium Wars and the 20th-century occupation of key islands, which China cites to bolster its territorial claims. China’s use of the “dash-line” doctrine, introduced in 1947, and it’s more assertive stance subsequently, including activities like imposing fishing bans and conducting military exercises, have contributed to heightened tensions, particularly with Vietnam. As China’s economic and military power has grown, it has become increasingly assertive in safeguarding its interests through various means as a great power in the region. The evolving power balance, coupled with Sino-U.S. strategic rivalry and China’s need to secure economic and energy resource security, has played a pivotal role in flaring tensions in the South China Sea. China’s growing concerns in the region are centered on “Malacca dilemma”, the Sino-Japanese strategic rivalry, heightened Sino-Philippine tensions, along with the presence of the United States in this geo political spectrum.
Simmering Tensions and Territorial Disputes
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China Vs. Taiwan
First, let us get a glimpse of Taiwan in the region with which Beijing’s relations are flaring. Despite governing itself independently since 1949, officially as the Republic of China (ROC), Taiwan finds itself in a precarious situation. China, officially the People’s Republic of China (PRC), deems Taiwan a rebellious province and aspires to achieve “unification” with the mainland, even if coercive measures are necessary. The tension has intensified notably since the election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016. President Tsai, at the helm of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and advocating for a nuanced approach to Taiwan’s status, endeavors to maintain a peaceful yet distinctive relationship with China. However, China’s response has been marked by assertive actions, including military provocations in close proximity to Taiwan, heightening concerns that a conflict over Taiwan might entangle the United States in a war with China. The United States has adopted a One-China policy and does not formally recognize Taiwan, maintaining a complex unofficial relationship while continuing to sell arms to Taiwan’s military. Recent administrations have increased engagement with Taiwan, including arms sales, official visits, and greater diplomatic contact, which has elicited strong responses from China. The risk of a potential conflict over Taiwan remains a significant concern, as China’s military capabilities grow, and the political situation continues to evolve. The possibility of war over Taiwan is not ruled out, with differing opinions among experts regarding the likelihood and timing of a Chinese invasion. The United States’ policy of strategic ambiguity has aimed to strike a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China, but President Joe Biden’s statements indicating U.S. defense of Taiwan have added uncertainty to the situation. Despite the economic and diplomatic challenges posed by China’s pressure, Taiwan’s democracy has remained resilient and vibrant, with most people on the island supporting the status quo while seeking closer ties with countries that respect its sovereignty and democratic values.
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Philippines Vs. China
In the South of Taiwan lies the Philippines, whose President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visited China in January 2023, where he established a hotline for direct communication between the Philippines and China’s foreign affairs ministries, aimed to prevent the escalation of tensions in the West Philippine Sea. However, when a crisis occurred in August, with the Chinese Coast Guard firing water cannons at Philippine boats in their exclusive economic zone, the hotline remained unanswered. China’s actions, such as the publication of a new map with ten-dash lines that violate international law and the 2016 arbitral decision, have raised concerns and led to diplomatic protests. While the Philippines and like-minded nations have stood up to China’s assertiveness, the challenges persist. The current administration, under Marcos Jr., has departed from the previous pro-China policy, emphasizing a foreign policy aligned with national interests and strengthening alliances with countries sharing similar values. Public opinion supports such measures to address West Philippine Sea issues, emphasizing military strengthening, joint maritime patrols, and a focus on defense capabilities.
The Role of the United States
President Joe Biden’s most recent visit to Hanoi marks a significant milestone in the growing relationship between the United States and Vietnam, as they upgraded their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This new level of diplomatic engagement, Vietnam’s highest, is expected to lead to increased military cooperation and closer collaboration on issues like climate change. During his visit, Biden encouraged U.S. technology and aviation companies to expand their partnerships with Vietnamese counterparts. However, the Biden administration has faced criticism from human rights groups and some members of Congress for engaging more closely with Vietnam at a time when the country’s human rights record has deteriorated. Despite these concerns, the strategic importance of Vietnam in the region has led the White House to prioritize the relationship, in contrast to the 1990s and 2000s when human rights issues hindered U.S.-Vietnam ties.
While most of Vietnam’s ASEAN neighbors have leaned closer to China, Hanoi’s concerns about Chinese aggression and actions in the South China Sea have driven its decision to strengthen ties with the United States. However, Vietnam is unlikely to completely pivot away from its multidirectional foreign policy. The country remains economically dependent on China, making it challenging to decouple their economies. Additionally, Vietnam maintains historical ties with Russia, which has been a key arms supplier and supporter during the Vietnam War. Therefore, Vietnam’s comprehensive strategic partnership with the United States signifies a deepening alignment of interests but does not imply a complete departure from its existing international relationships, as it continues to balance its strategic engagements.
A Calculus of Vietnam’s Deterrence amid Tensions in the South China Sea
Vietnam’s strategic approach centers on safeguarding its regime’s survival, countering China’s influence, and avoiding regional conflicts, with a primary focus on protecting sovereignty and enforcing maritime claims in the South China Sea. The Vietnamese Communist Party (CPV) is aiming to secure its power by driving economic growth. Vietnam actively cultivates relationships with key players like the United States, Japan, India, Australia, and fellow Southeast Asian nations. Vietnam adheres to a defense policy guided by the “three No’s,” which means no alliances, no foreign military bases on its soil, and no reliance on other nations during conflicts. While Vietnam desires strong defense cooperation with the United States, its proximity to China necessitates a careful balancing act. Vietnam’s approach opposes the use of force, seeks to deter China, and is open to participating in security and defense mechanisms in the Indo-Pacific region, including potential engagement with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and greater involvement in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) security initiatives.
