Introduction
In the context of deterring a potential Chinese attack, the Philippines has emerged as a significant regional player in 2023, as it claims the 32nd spot among 145 nations in the Global Firepower Index. Strengthening its defense posture, the Philippines has forged bilateral defense agreements with key nations, solidifying its position as a formidable military force in the region. Meanwhile, China’s dramatic military modernization has reshaped the security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. As it aspires to become a two-ocean navy, it is not yet on par with the United States across all military dimensions. However, China has significantly narrowed the gap, altering the regional balance. Amid these transformations, the challenges are multifarious and are raising concerns about security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. The South China Sea, a volatile hotspot, presents the potential for conflict escalation, with territorial disputes, resource competition, freedom of navigation operations, proxy conflicts, and nationalist pressures. Let us look at a possible scenario in which the Philippines could deter a Chinese attack.
Philippine Military and Naval Capabilities
With respect to global military strength and comprehensive power, the Philippines is showing notable progress in 2023. It ranks 32nd out of 145 countries in the Global Firepower Index, showcasing a two-place improvement from the previous year, highlighting the nation’s growing military capability. In the Philippines, the military apparatus stands fortified, comprising a formidable assembly of 130,000 active personnel across various branches. Recent acquisitions encompass an array of cutting-edge armaments and machinery, encompassing supersonic combat aircraft, assault choppers, and versatile transport craft. These augmentations underscore the nation’s unwavering commitment to bolstering its defense prowess and positioning itself as a formidable military presence within the dynamic Asian theater. Additionally, the existence of reciprocal defense compacts with pivotal nations such as the United States, Japan, and Australia further fuels cooperative endeavors and fortifies the nation’s defense stature. In the face of multifarious challenges, the Philippines persistently charts a course toward military empowerment, assertively assuming its standing as an influential force within the realm of Asian middle powers. The nation holds the ninth position in defense networks, primarily due to its military cooperation with the United States, a key treaty ally. However, the Philippines faces hurdles in terms of resilience, ranking 20th, partly due to internal conflict legacies. As the Philippines further invests in its military and forms strategic partnerships, its military capabilities are on an upward trajectory, making it an increasingly influential player in the region. As the Philippines continues to modernize its military and collaborate with key allies, it is not only improving its own security but also contributing to regional stability and influence.
Chinese Naval and military capabilities
China’s military modernization over the past two decades has been remarkable, transforming it into a formidable force. China, while not yet attaining parity with the United States in terms of military hardware and proficiency, has undeniably achieved substantial progress, notably in domains that directly challenge American capabilities. They’ve channeled substantial resources into the development of precision-guided missiles designed to target U.S. airbases within the vast Asia-Pacific expanse. Concurrently, they’ve fortified their anti-ship capabilities, honing their capacity to thwart maritime threats effectively. Furthermore, they’ve unveiled cutting-edge anti-satellite technology, a development that holds the potential to disrupt crucial space-based assets. These advancements collectively represent a notable convergence between China and the United States, an occurrence that precipitates growing concerns pertaining to the prospect of regional conflicts. China’s modernization extends beyond military tech aimed at countering the U.S. They’re also improving their helicopter engines, naval capabilities, and aircraft technology. The Type 054B frigate and J-20 stealth fighter with WS-15 engines are notable examples. Additionally, China is on the verge of launching the domestically designed Fujian aircraft carrier, emphasizing their ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. Potential upgrades to amphibious assault ships underscore China’s focus on expanding its military capabilities.
These comprehensive military modernization efforts by China have raised concerns globally. China aims to increase its influence in the evolving security landscape of the region, demanding careful assessment and strategic planning to maintain regional stability and deter potential aggression in the years ahead.
China Vs the Philippines: The United States in the Picture
The Asia Power Index presents a comprehensive view of the evolving power dynamics in the region, highlighting the bipolar competition between two superpowers, the United States and China. While the United States still maintains an edge in overall power, the data reveals that China has significantly closed the gap and is not far behind. However, despite the expectations of a power transition, the United States is unlikely to reestablish a decisive lead, signifying the end of uncontested US primacy in Asia. In the context of the Philippines, the implications of this power shift are profound. As such, the notion of a Sino-centric century remains uncertain and in arrested development. This scenario presents challenges and opportunities for nations like the Philippines.
The Philippines has a vested interest in maintaining its territorial and coastal defense capabilities. In light of China’s military assertiveness, the Philippines is actively modernizing its military to bolster its deterrence capabilities. This includes the acquisition of advanced defense assets, such as submarines, aircraft, and missile systems. However, the Asia Power Index indicates that even if China were to surpass the United States in comprehensive power in the future, it is unlikely to achieve the same level of dominance that the United States once held.
The Philippines’ role in this evolving regional balance of power is significant. As the United States and China vie for influence, middle powers like the Philippines play a crucial role in shaping the regional order. Recent data from the Asia Power Index also reveals challenges for China. In 2023, China registered a decline in comprehensive power due to its prolonged strict COVID-19 measures, which disrupted people-to-people connectivity and economic linkages. This development raises questions about China’s ability to tip the balance of power decisively in its favor.
The index’s findings suggest that while China may not fully catch up to or overtake the United States, it can still challenge US power in Asia and impact the interests of smaller neighboring nations like the Philippines.
The Powder Keg for war?
In the context of the South China Sea, often referred to as “The Powder Keg for war,” several potential scenarios could lead to a full-scale conflict between the Philippines and China. The territorial disputes in this region, especially concerning areas like the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, are a longstanding source of tension. Should diplomatic efforts fail to find resolution, these disputes could escalate into a military confrontation, as seen in the past.
Resource extraction is another combustible element. The South China Sea is abundant in valuable resources, including fisheries, oil, and natural gas. As competition for these resources intensifies, disputes over encroachments into exclusive economic zones (EEZ) or territorial waters may trigger confrontations. Incidents involving fishing vessels or drilling activities have the potential to escalate into a crisis.
Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) conducted by foreign naval forces, such as the United States, raise tensions. If a situation were to arise where the Philippines and China clash during such operations, unintended confrontations or even a military crisis could ensue.
Proxy conflicts, driven by military alliances and commitments, are also a concern. Involving other countries due to agreements with the Philippines or China could magnify the risk of a broader conflict.
Finally, domestic dynamics, including nationalist sentiments, public pressure, or populist movements, can influence foreign policy decisions in both nations. These factors may push the countries toward more assertive postures, diminishing the willingness to seek diplomatic resolutions and increasing the risk of military confrontations.
Naval Frontier: Is deterrence possible?
The Philippines is actively pursuing a robust strategy to enhance its territorial and coastal defense capabilities amid escalating tensions, particularly in the South China Sea. The recent collision between Chinese ships and a Philippine military supply vessel en route to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal has prompted the Philippines to realign its military modernization program.
The country’s modernization plan, known as Horizon 3, is a crucial component of this strategy. It encompasses the acquisition of multirole fighter jets, radars, frigates, missile systems, helicopters, and even the Philippines’ first submarine fleet. While this modernization effort began in 2013, budget constraints have slowed its progress, with only about 10% of Horizon 1 and 53% of Horizon 2 completed by 2022. However, due to recent clashes with China, Manila is accelerating its acquisition plans, with $793 million earmarked for defense spending in 2024.
The Philippines is procuring various military assets, such as C-130J-30 Super Hercules tactical airlifters, BrahMos missiles, Acero-class gunboats from Israel, landing dock platforms from Indonesia, corvettes from South Korea, and offshore patrol vessels. While the financing of Horizon 3, estimated at 500 billion pesos, remains unclear, several countries have offered assistance, including France, Spain, and South Korea, vying to supply submarines.
The Philippine military’s realignment focuses on acquiring fewer but more potent assets and platforms, aligning with a forward-defense strategy aimed at pushing threats as far away as possible. This approach allows for the immediate deployment of fighter jets and other assets when encountering Chinese vessels.
The Philippines has also outlined a territorial defense strategy that places significant importance on islands it claims in the South China Sea, particularly Thitu Island, Loaita Cay, West York Island, Flat Island, and Nanshan Island.
The recent efforts in enhancing the Philippines’ maritime and aerial capabilities have a strong focus on modernizing its Navy. It includes the procurement of maritime patrol aircraft, anti-submarine warfare helicopters, and unmanned combat aerial vehicles. These assets are essential for strengthening the country’s maritime security and defense.
In June 2023, the Philippine Navy conducted its first “full-mission capable deployment” of anti-submarine warfare assets. This operation involved the missile-equipped frigate BRP Antonio Luna and the Agusta West land AW159 Wildcat helicopter. These assets are considered critical deterrents against potential threats in the region. The Philippines is also eager to expand its anti-submarine capabilities and is actively pursuing the acquisition of submarines, with three shipbuilders submitting proposals. The evolving landscape in the region suggests that the Philippines is committed to fortifying its position and defending its claims.
End Note
The Philippines has positioned itself as a significant regional military player, improving its global ranking and actively enhancing its defense capabilities. Meanwhile, China’s relentless military modernization has narrowed the gap with the United States, altering the security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and raising concerns. The South China Sea remains a volatile hotspot with multiple triggers for conflict. In response, the Philippines is proactively pursuing a robust strategy to bolster its territorial and coastal defense capabilities, aligning with a forward-defense approach. While challenges persist, including financial constraints, the Philippines’ commitment to modernization, strategic alliances, and regional cooperation demonstrates its determination to deter potential aggression and safeguard its sovereignty and maritime interests in this era of evolving power dynamics and bipolar competition in the Indo-Pacific.
