In a story emblematic of China’s strategy for territorial expansion, a frog placed in lukewarm water remains unaware as the water is slowly heated until it is boiled alive. This “boiling frog strategy” illustrates a cautious and incremental approach to extending influence and power, one that avoids significant backlash from the international community. Admiral John Aquilino, outgoing commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, recently warned that China is employing this very strategy in the South China Sea. “It’s getting more aggressive, they’re getting more bold and it’s getting more dangerous,” Aquilino told the Financial Times, pointing to Beijing’s steadily intensifying pressure over his three-year tenure.
A Rising Tide of Aggression
Aquilino, a former “top gun” pilot, recalls several tense incidents during his command. One notable episode was the uproar over then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which infuriated Beijing and led to heightened threats on Chinese social media. This visit was seen by China as a sign of the Biden administration’s assertive stance towards Beijing. “The misinterpretation by the Chinese gave me concern that they might actually take actions that could be detrimental,” Aquilino said.
China’s growing belligerence is also evident in increased coastguard activity around Taiwan’s islands of Kinmen and Matsu. Aquilino described this as a “pressure campaign in action,” noting that it has expanded in scope and scale. The situation escalated further in February 2023 when Chinese spy balloons were detected flying over the United States. Although none have been seen over the mainland, Guam, or Hawaii since, the incident underscored the increasing tension between the two superpowers.
Four Phases of Strategy in the South China Sea
To understand China’s expanding influence in the South China Sea, we can examine its approach in four distinct phases. Each phase marks a progression in China’s strategy, showcasing its methodical and incremental approach to asserting control over this crucial maritime region.
Phase One (1990–2002): Framing the Disputes
In the first phase of the boiling frog strategy, China laid the groundwork for its future assertiveness. It pursued a strategy of delaying the resolution of territorial disputes, aiming to consolidate its claims over maritime rights and jurisdiction. This period saw several key developments:
- Naval Skirmishes: In March 1988, China and Vietnam clashed over Johnson South Reef in the Spratly Islands. This skirmish highlighted the region’s instability and foreshadowed future tensions.
- Strategic Uncertainty: The end of the Cold War and the US-Soviet détente created strategic uncertainty in East Asia. The collapse of the Soviet Union further complicated the regional security landscape.
- Enhanced Naval Presence: In June 1990, Malaysia enhanced its naval presence in the northern Borneo state of Sabah by establishing a naval base, increasing its power projection capability in the South China Sea.
- Oil and Gas Reserves: By 1991, China’s military emphasized the strategic importance of the South China Sea’s oil and natural gas reserves. The Gulf War heightened awareness of the need for diversified oil reserves, making the region a strategic focal point.
This phase laid the groundwork for China’s future assertiveness, establishing its claims and setting the stage for more aggressive actions.
Phase Two (2003–2012): The Three Warfares Strategy
As the water temperature slowly increased, China unveiled its Three Warfares strategy in 2003. This strategy, inspired by Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War,” has been a cornerstone of China’s approach to its territorial ambitions.
The Three Warfares strategy encompasses media or public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare. Each of these elements plays a crucial role in shaping perceptions, controlling narratives, and using legal means to gain an advantage over adversaries.
Media Warfare: Shaping Public Opinion
The first of the Three Warfares, media warfare, seeks to shape both domestic and international public opinion. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) holds the view that rallying the Chinese public can be a useful tool for signaling resolve and deterring foreign incursions on Chinese interests.
Psychological Warfare: Influencing Foreign Policy
The second warfare attempts to influence foreign decision-makers and their approach to China policy. This was particularly evident in the South China Sea dispute, where China used a combination of the three warfares to shape the narrative and assert its territorial claims.
Legal Warfare: Using Law as a Weapon
The third warfare, known as legal warfare or “lawfare”, uses legal means to achieve strategic objectives. It involves exploiting the legal system to achieve military objectives, shape the operational environment, deter adversaries, or gain the moral high ground. An example of this can be seen in China’s approach to the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China used legal arguments to justify its territorial claims and to challenge the actions of other countries. It also used legal warfare to challenge the legitimacy of international arbitration proceedings related to the South China Sea.
These examples illustrate how the Three Warfares strategy has been effectively implemented by the PLA’s General Political Department’s Liaison Department, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the United Front Work Department. This strategy has allowed China to undermine international institutions, alter borders, and subvert global media without resorting to open conflict, making it a powerful tool in its territorial ambitions.
Phase Three (2013–2016): Public Strategy and Assertiveness
A significant shift occurred in 2013 when President Xi Jinping articulated the goal of achieving a “rights-stability balance,” moving away from delaying the resolution of disputes. By this stage, the water was noticeably warmer, and China’s actions became more overt and assertive.
- Rights-Stability Balance: Xi Jinping’s articulation of this concept marked a departure from previous strategies, emphasizing the need to consolidate China’s claims while maintaining regional stability.
- Artificial Islands and Military Installations: China embarked on a massive land reclamation project, constructing artificial islands and military installations in disputed territories. These actions significantly altered the strategic landscape of the South China Sea.
- Arbitration Case: In 2013, the Philippines challenged China’s claims through an arbitration case, leading to a 2016 ruling by the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea that rejected China’s extensive territorial claims. Despite the ruling, China refused to acknowledge the tribunal’s jurisdiction and continued its assertive actions.
China’s defiance of international legal rulings and its continued construction in the South China Sea highlighted its commitment to consolidating its claims, regardless of international opposition.
Phase Four (2017–2020): Consolidation and Escalation
In the final phase, the frog is nearing a boiling point as China leverages advanced military technology to bolster its position. Modern aircraft, ships, and missiles enhanced the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s capabilities, allowing for more aggressive actions:
- Military Modernization: China invested heavily in modernizing its military, acquiring advanced aircraft, ships, and missiles. These capabilities allowed the PLA Navy to conduct more complex and assertive operations in the South China Sea.
- Unrestrained Behavior: Despite international rulings against its claims, China continued to act assertively. This included deploying military assets to artificial islands and increasing its naval presence in disputed waters.
- Economic Leverage: China successfully convinced many Southeast Asian countries that confronting it would harm their economies. This led to significant policy shifts, such as the 2018 memorandum of understanding between China and the Philippines on oil and gas development.
China’s strategy during this phase focused on consolidating its gains and leveraging its military and economic power to deter opposition from regional actors.
Backlash and Increased Militarization
As China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea has escalated, it has provoked significant backlash, leading to increased militarization of the region and greater involvement from the United States. This intensifying situation has raised tensions, with regional actors responding to Beijing’s incremental aggression by strengthening their military capabilities and forging new alliances.
The Philippines, in particular, has been at the forefront of this response. Facing heightened hostility from China’s Coast Guard and maritime militia, Manila has moved to bolster its defense cooperation with the United States and other allies.
The rise in military activities and alliances underscores the growing resistance to China’s actions. Regional countries, wary of the boiling frog strategy, are now more vigilant and proactive, aiming to counterbalance Beijing’s expanding influence before the metaphorical water reaches a boiling point.
A Surge in Hostility
In 2023, China’s Coast Guard and maritime militia significantly increased their presence and hostility in the South China Sea. The Philippines became a focal point of maritime tensions, prompting the Philippine government to strengthen defense cooperation with the United States and its allies. Admiral Samuel Paparo of the US Pacific Fleet noted in November 2023 that Chinese officers were under orders to be more aggressive in interactions with Western military forces.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. launched an assertive transparency campaign to publicize Chinese actions in near-real time. Despite this, China continued to oppose patrols in the West Philippine Sea, claiming they violated Chinese sovereignty.
Second Thomas Shoal, a low-tide elevation, became a major contention area. China actively blocked Philippine resupply operations to the beached BRP Sierra Madre, with incidents in October and December 2023 involving aggressive maneuvers by Chinese vessels.
In response to these hostilities, the Philippines has bolstered defense cooperation with the United States. The 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement was expanded in February 2023, granting the US temporary access to four additional bases. The Philippines also engaged in significant military exercises, including the 39th and largest Exercise Balikatan in April 2024, and the first combined bilateral sail with the US in the South China Sea since 2016.
Regional and Global Implications
The Philippines sought to strengthen ties with other regional countries, conducting trilateral drills with the US and Japan, and holding the first bilateral amphibious exercise with Australia. Bilateral relations with Australia were elevated to a strategic partnership during Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit in September 2023.
Under Indonesia’s leadership as ASEAN Chair, progress was made in negotiating a code of conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. The 56th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in July 2023 announced the completion of the COC’s second reading, with a goal to finalize it within three years. However, Philippine President Marcos expressed dissatisfaction with the slow pace and announced intentions to engage with Malaysia, Vietnam, and other countries on a second COC.
The Path Ahead
The increasing boldness and aggression of China in the South China Sea underscore the importance of strategic alliances and defense cooperation. As the Philippines and other regional actors strengthen their military capabilities and seek broader alliances, the situation remains precarious. The frog may still have a chance to leap from the pot, but time is running short. The response to China’s incremental strategy in the coming years will shape the future stability of the region, determining whether the frog will jump to safety or be boiled alive.
