The Philippines has intensified its patrols in the disputed South China Sea ahead of the implementation of a new Chinese regulation that empowers the Chinese coast guard to detain foreigners accused of trespassing. The regulation, effective from Saturday, marks a further escalation in tensions in this fiercely contested waterway, one of the world’s most economically significant and busiest trading routes. Under the updated legislation, foreigners accused of illegally entering Chinese waters can be detained for up to 60 days without trial.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has described these new Chinese regulations as worrisome and an “escalation of the situation.” He warned that if any Filipino citizen is killed “by a willful act,” it would be close to “an act of war.” The Philippines, along with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, has overlapping claims in the South China Sea, which China claims almost 90% of, despite an international tribunal in The Hague rejecting these claims.
Concerns are growing that increasing maritime confrontations in the region heighten the risk of a miscalculation that could inadvertently provoke conflict. The Philippines has repeatedly accused China of dangerous behavior, including firing water cannons and ramming its boats to disrupt Philippine Coast Guard missions. Such incidents have drawn warnings from the US, which has stated it would defend the Philippines, a treaty ally, in the event of an armed attack on its public vessels, aircraft, and armed forces or its Coast Guard in the South China Sea.
Fishing groups in the Philippines have expressed fear about being detained at sea, but many have no choice but to continue their activities as their livelihoods depend on it. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, has stated that the regulations are intended “to standardize the administrative law-enforcement procedures of Coast Guard agencies and better uphold order at sea.” Mao assured that “individuals and entities have no need for concern as long as they have not done anything illicit.”
In response, the Philippines has increased its patrols. Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Philippine navy spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, mentioned that the Philippines is also working with partners and allies to address the matter. “We are not the only ones concerned; other countries are also worried,” Trinidad told local media. He emphasized that various Philippine agencies are working to ensure Filipino fishing communities, who have long complained of harassment by Chinese vessels, will not be arrested. “The actions right now of the Philippine navy, the armed forces, the Coast Guard, Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, and all other maritime players of the Philippine government are preventing such a situation,” he said.
Collin Koh, a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, described the new regulations as a form of “lawfare.” “It is meant to intimidate, it is meant to threaten,” he said, adding that it was intended to remind countries such as the Philippines that China has a bigger navy and Coast Guard. However, Koh noted that the wording of the law remains vague. China’s Coast Guard Law, first introduced in 2021, applies to “maritime areas under Chinese jurisdiction,” but does not clearly define this. Were China to actually arrest Filipinos at sea, this would carry significant risks for Beijing, he added. “What if in the process of trying to apprehend trespassers under the new guidelines, you clash with Philippine maritime forces, [and] somebody dies?” Koh asked, suggesting this could then lead to the invocation of the Philippines’ mutual defense treaty with the US.
Applying the new law could also push the Philippines to advance its own legal challenges against China, Koh pointed out. The Philippines has previously said it is considering filing a new legal challenge against China in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, accusing it of environmental damage within the Philippine’s exclusive economic zone – waters extending 200 nautical miles (370 km) from a state’s coastline, where the country has special rights to exploit resources and build.
China’s embassy in Manila did not respond to a request for comment. Beijing has consistently rejected the tribunal’s ruling in the South China Sea case, asserting that its “territorial sovereignty and marine rights” in the seas are unaffected by the ruling. Chinese President Xi Jinping has maintained that China is “committed to resolving disputes” with its neighbors, despite the tribunal’s decision, which was overwhelmingly in favor of the Philippines. The ruling declared large areas of the sea to be neutral international waters or exclusive economic zones of other countries, punching holes in China’s “nine-dash line” claim that extends deep into the South China Sea.
Chinese state media has reacted angrily to the tribunal’s verdict, with Xinhua, the country’s official news agency, describing the ruling as “ill-founded” and “naturally null and void.” The Communist party’s newspaper, the People’s Daily, argued that the tribunal had ignored “basic truths” and “trampled” on international laws and norms. “The Chinese government and the Chinese people firmly oppose [the ruling] and will neither acknowledge it nor accept it,” it added.
The Philippine foreign affairs secretary, Perfecto Yasay Jr., welcomed the ruling, calling for “restraint and sobriety.” The US State Department also called on both parties to comply with their obligations, as stated by spokesman John Kirby. The tribunal’s decision is a significant setback for Beijing, effectively disqualifying China’s “nine-dash” claim on the basis of historic rights. The ruling declared that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the “nine-dash line.”
The tribunal found that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone by interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration, constructing artificial islands, and failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing in the zone. At Scarborough Shoal, where it said fishermen from the Philippines and China had traditional fishing rights, China had restricted these rights. Additionally, the tribunal condemned China’s land reclamation projects and construction of artificial islands in the Spratly Islands, causing “severe harm to the coral reef environment.”
Paul Reichler, of the law firm Foley Hoag LLP, who coordinated the Philippines’ legal team, noted that the tribunal’s ruling benefits not only the Philippines but also other states bordering the South China Sea, like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. If China’s “nine-dash line” is invalid as to the Philippines, it is equally invalid to those states and the rest of the international community.
The South China Sea is a vital maritime region believed to hold untapped oil and gas reserves, through which approximately $4.5 trillion of ship-borne trade passes annually. Sporadic violence between Chinese vessels and those of Southeast Asian militaries has occurred over the years, with the potential for further military drills and establishment of an air defense identification zone by China over the region.
In recent months, the Philippines has accused China of “dangerous maneuvers” that damaged its vessels and left four Filipinos with minor injuries. Such incidents occurred during resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship serving as an outpost for Philippine troops in the Second Thomas Shoal, located within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. The Philippines maintains that these missions are routine and necessary to sustain military forces deployed in the area.
The Chinese coast guard has taken measures against what it considers illegal intrusions into waters near the Second Thomas Shoal, claiming that the Philippine side has “deliberately stirred up trouble.” The shoal, lying 118 miles (190 km) off the Philippine island of Palawan, is a flashpoint in the South China Sea, with the Philippines frequently accusing Chinese vessels of aggressive and dangerous attempts to block its resupply missions. Analysts warn that increasing incidents raise the risk of miscalculation, potentially drawing the US, a Philippine ally, into confrontation with Beijing.
The Scarborough Shoal, a traditional fishing area for Chinese, Filipino, and Vietnamese fishers, has also been a point of contention. In May 2024, a flotilla of about 100 fishing boats led by Filipino activists set sail for the shoal, intending to assert Manila’s sovereignty. The Philippine coast guard and navy deployed patrol ships to keep watch over the activists and fishers, who planned to float small territorial buoys and distribute food packs and fuel. Despite the peaceful mission, there were concerns about potential confrontations with the Chinese coast guard.
China has effectively seized the Scarborough Shoal since a 2012 standoff with Philippine government ships. The Philippine government brought the disputes to international arbitration, winning a significant ruling in 2016. However, China has refused to participate in the arbitration and continues to defy the outcome. The Philippine coast guard recently accused the Chinese coast guard of reinstalling a floating barrier across the entrance to the shoal’s fishing lagoon, a move condemned by the Philippines.
The ongoing skirmishes between the Philippines and China, resulting in minor collisions and injuries, highlight the escalating tensions in the South China Sea. The situation remains volatile, with fears that territorial disputes could lead to an armed conflict involving major powers like the United States. The South China Sea’s strategic importance, coupled with its rich natural resources, ensures that it will continue to be a focal point of international maritime disputes and geopolitical moves.
