In 2023, the South China Sea witnessed escalating tensions involving China, the Philippines, and the neighboring nations involving maritime disputes and territorial sovereignty. The Philippines and the United States, through strategic actions, diplomatic engagements, and joint military exercises, maintained regional balance, while a historic visit by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to the Philippines along with joint patrols of the Philippines maritime force with the United States, Australia, and Japan elicited strong responses from China. The probability of collusion between the Philippines and China definitely exists, however, it may vary from low to high based on the priorities of both, influenced by diplomatic efforts, ongoing rhetoric, and strategic alignments with key allies. This unfolding narrative highlights the South China Sea’s prominence on the global stage.
Chronology of events in the South China Sea: 2023
In 2023, the South China Sea became a focal point of escalating tensions due to overlapping territorial claims related to China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. The United States, a steadfast ally of the Philippines, played a crucial function in preserving nearby balance via a series of strategic movements and diplomatic engagements.
The year began with a commitment reaffirmation, as United States and Philippines defense chiefs met to underscore their dedication to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). This cornerstone agreement facilitated an increased rotational presence of American troops in the Philippines, thereby enhancing deterrence and preparedness in the region.
Solidifying their partnership, U.S. and Philippine military forces engaged in joint exercises in the South China Sea in March. These exercises showcased their interoperability and resolve covering various domains, including humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, maritime security, and air defense.
In a virtual summit held in April, both the U.S. and the Philippines Presidents reaffirmed their commitment to the U.S. Philippines alliance. Pledges were made to strengthen cooperation across security, economic, and climate change domains.
July saw a bold move as the U.S. and Philippines warships conducted a Freedom of Navigation Operation in the South China Sea. This operation challenged excessive maritime claims and upheld the international “right of innocent passage” through international waters, thereby sending a clear message regarding their commitment to freedom of navigation in the region.
In August, the U.S. and Philippines defense officials explored possibilities of joint patrols in the South China Sea, further strengthening their maritime security collaboration.
In October, tensions escalated when a Chinese Coast Guard vessel blocked Philippines resupply boats and vessels to Ayungin Shoal, which is also known as Second Thomas Shoal, drawing condemnation from the U.S. State Department as “dangerous” and “unlawful.”
In November, joint maritime patrols between the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea signaled the unwavering commitment of both nations to uphold freedom of navigation and maintain a rules-based international order in the region.
Throughout the year, the U.S.-Philippines alliance played a pivotal role amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea. Diplomatic reaffirmation, joint exercises, summit-level engagement, Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), and discussions on expanded defense cooperation demonstrated the commitment of the United States to support the security and sovereignty of the Philippines in the South China Sea.
The Commitment of the United States to Support the Philippines
Likewise, the United States has also depicted considerable support for the Philippines. From convening their strong commitment to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) to the rotational presence of U.S. troops in the Philippines, the alliance’s strength was vividly demonstrated month after month. The virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. marked a significant diplomatic milestone.
In July 2023, U.S. warships were conducting a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea, deliberately challenging China’s excessive maritime claims. As tensions escalated in October 2023 with a Chinese Coast Guard vessel obstructing a Philippine resupply mission in the disputed South China Sea, the U.S. backed the Philippines with its full support. The United States’ steadfast support for the Philippines in the midst of tensions, underscored its commitment, as a cornerstone for regional stability, with diplomatic engagements, joint military exercises, and concrete actions reflecting a robust partnership.
Japanese high-level visit to the Philippines
The anxiety surrounding the events in October and November in the South China Sea led the Philippines to look for support from the international community. The Japanese prime minister’s visit to the Philippines in early November boosted confidence in the Philippines.
In a historic visit on November 3, 2023, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made significant strides in reinforcing Japan’s ties with the Philippines. The day of the visit began with a poignant gesture as Prime Minister Kishida paid his respects at Rizal Park, commemorating national hero Jose Rizal’s pivotal role in the Philippines’ independence movement. Subsequent engagements included the business landscape and the future trajectory of economic relations between Japan and the Philippines.
The apex of the visit unfolded between Prime Minister Kishida and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Comprehensive dialogues spanned vital aspects such as security and defense cooperation, economic relations, and people-to-people exchanges. The leaders delved into bilateral projects, including the provision of coastal surveillance radar systems and disaster response equipment.
In subsequent developments, Prime Minister Kishida and President Marcos announced negotiations on a Reciprocal Troop Access Deal. This strategic pact aimed at enhancing military cooperation, gained significance against the backdrop of escalating maritime tensions, particularly in response to China’s assertiveness.
Japan’s commitment to reinforcing regional security was further demonstrated by a 600 million yen grant under Japan’s Overseas Security Assistance program. This grant, directed towards enhancing coastal radar security in the Philippines, signified Japan’s proactive response to evolving security challenges posed by China.
Negotiations on the Reciprocal Access Agreement were announced, enabling joint military exercises and troop access. The proposed agreement, similar to the Philippines’ existing framework with the United States, represented a substantial enhancement in the Japan-Philippines alliance and contributed to broader regional efforts to counter China’s assertive actions. This visit, marked by diplomatic nuances and tangible agreements, solidified the alliance between Japan and the Philippines in the face of evolving geopolitical challenges.
APEC Summit and Marco’s subsequent visit to Hawaii
President Ferdinand Marco’s recent visit to the United States, particularly his stop in Hawaii, signified a pivotal moment. Marcos received a warm welcome from the local Filipino community, reflecting on his family’s exile in Hawaii, during the aftermath of his father’s ousting in 1986. This visit holds symbolic weight, marking his commitment to strengthening ties with the U.S. The President’s engagement also involved a two-day stay at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command headquarters, emphasizing the Philippines’ role in regional security.
While Marcos focused on economic collaborations during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, where he secured substantial investment pledges, his visit to Hawaii took on added significance. The President’s diplomatic efforts included a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit, aiming to defuse tensions while concurrently finalizing a nuclear energy deal with the U.S. and expanding American military access in the Philippines.
Joint Maritime Patrols with the United States
Among the most recent developments in the South China Sea, pertinent ones are the joint maritime patrols by the U.S. and the Philippines within the vicinity of the South China Sea. The Philippines’ National Security Adviser, Eduardo Año, affirmed that the joint patrols conducted with the United States in the South China Sea fall well within Manila’s rights. Echoing this sentiment, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro emphasized that the Philippines, far from provoking conflict, is committed to protecting its rights. Teodoro anticipated multiple iterations of joint patrols moving forward, marking a strategic move amid escalating tensions with China. The joint patrols, conducted within Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near Taiwan and the South China Sea, serve as a clear expression of the Philippines’ determination to safeguard its interests.
Patrols with Australia
Likewise, the latest developments include the initiation of joint sea and air patrols in the South China Sea by the Philippines and Australia, following a similar undertaking with the United States earlier in the week. The three-day exercises, declared by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, aim to reinforce the commitment to a rules-based order. Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles emphasized the joint commitment to a peaceful and secure region in a statement, noting that the first joint patrol between the Australian Defence Force and the Armed Forces of the Philippines is a tangible manifestation of this commitment. The patrols, conducted in the West Philippine Sea within Manila’s exclusive economic zone, involve two Philippine navy vessels, five surveillance aircraft, and Australia’s frigate Toowoomba and P8-A maritime surveillance aircraft. China has accused the Philippines of involving “foreign forces,” a claim Manila rejects, asserting its right to conduct maritime activities in the disputed area.
China’s response to the Philippines’ actions
Tensions between China and the Philippines have escalated as China accuses the Philippines of enlisting “overseas forces” to patrol the South China Sea, referencing joint patrols performed by using Philippine and U.S. Forces in advance within the week. China’s army vows to hold excessive vigilance, guard sovereignty and maritime rights, and protect peace and stability in the area, condemning the joint patrols as activities that “undermine regional peace and stability.” The southern theatre command of the Chinese military contends that the Philippines has engaged in provocative actions by involving external forces in the disputed waters. The latest developments are adding complexity to the geopolitical dynamics of the region, with China explicitly warning that joint patrols must not compromise its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights.
The Probability of collision and its repercussions
In evaluating the likelihood of collusion between the Philippines and China, three distinct scenarios emerge with varying probabilities of collusion between the two countries based on the current geopolitical situation.
First, there is a relatively low probability of collusion, considering the potential for diplomatic efforts, negotiations, or shifts in geopolitical dynamics leading to a de-escalation of tensions. Despite recent strains, the Philippines might seek to balance its relationships, avoiding direct confrontation with China and exploring avenues for dialogue. Economic and geopolitical considerations could incentivize both countries to find common ground and reduce tensions in the South China Sea. The ultimate trajectory will depend on ongoing diplomatic initiatives and regional cooperation efforts.
Second, moving to a moderate probability scenario, tensions between China and the Philippines have intensified, especially in the South China Sea, creating a complex diplomatic environment. While the U.S.-Philippines alliance has strengthened, external factors or unforeseen events could influence the trajectory of their relationship. Geopolitical dynamics and ongoing maritime disputes can contribute to an atmosphere of uncertainty, where the evolving situation could sway the probability in either direction.
Third, a scenario with a higher opportunity, because the Philippines has currently taken assertive actions, together with undertaking joint patrols with the U.S., Australia, and Japan. These strategic alignments represent a clear stance towards China’s assertive conduct inside the South China Sea. Additionally, statements from Philippine officers strongly rejecting China’s territorial claims underscore the United States’s dedication to safeguarding its sovereignty and rights, suggesting a divergence from nearer ties with China. These elements can increase the chance of collusion between the Philippines and China, as each international location might also be seeking to counterbalance every different’s actions and assert its dominance within the area.
End Note
In conclusion, the events unfolding in the South China Sea in 2023 underscore a complex geopolitical landscape marked by strategic alliances, diplomatic maneuvers, and heightened tensions. The United States, Japan, and Australia’s support for the Philippines, alongside joint maritime patrols, reflects a united front against China’s assertiveness. The evolving probability of collision between the Philippines and China adds uncertainty to the region. This narrative serves as a testament to the delicate balance and strategic calculations amid competing interests in the South China Sea.
