“China isn’t waiting for 2049 to change the balance of power — it’s doing it now, in the gray zones between peace and war.”
— Hal Brands, Johns Hopkins SAIS
In the tense waters of the South China Sea, modern conflict no longer requires a declaration of war. It is waged with water cannons powerful enough to shred steel, blinding laser lights, and deliberate ramming maneuvers. This is the reality of “grey-zone” conflict—a sustained campaign of state-backed coercion designed to shift territorial control without triggering a full-scale military response. At the epicenter of this quiet storm is the Philippines, a nation facing relentless pressure that challenges not only its sovereignty but the very foundations of international law.
A recent Ayungin Shoal incident perfectly illustrates this escalating tension, where a Chinese Coast Guard vessel rammed and blasted a Philippine supply boat with high-pressure water jets. The attack left the Philippine ship damaged and its crew shaken. In response, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro denounced the act as “illegal and reckless,” labeling it a direct assault on national sovereignty. Beijing, in a familiar refrain, blamed Manila for “provocation.”
The stakes of these clashes extend far beyond regional disputes. The South China Sea is the world’s maritime superhighway, with an estimated $5.3 trillion in annual trade passing through its corridors. Every container of electronics, every barrel of oil, and every grain shipment connecting Asia to the world transits this contested area. Any significant disruption here would send shockwaves through the global economy.
At its core, this confrontation represents a deep legal and moral chasm. China insists on its expansive “New Ten-Dash Line” claim, a boundary decisively rejected by the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling. The Philippines, backed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), continues to defend its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and strategic outposts. Each collision and blocked resupply mission is a direct test of the rules-based international order that prevents the Indo-Pacific from descending into open conflict.
The Pag-asa Island Clash: Grey-Zone Tactics Turn Overtly Dangerous
“China is building a Great Wall of Sand in the South China Sea.”
— Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., former U.S. Pacific Command
On October 12, 2025, the calm around Thitu Island (Pag-asa Island) was shattered by violence. The Philippine fisheries vessel BRP Datu Pagbuaya, on a routine mission to support local fishermen, was suddenly targeted by a Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ship. According to the Philippine Coast Guard, the CCG vessel fired high-pressure water jets before deliberately ramming the Filipino ship’s stern, causing significant structural damage.
Manila condemned the action as a calculated act of intimidation within its own EEZ. Beijing, however, deployed its standard counter-narrative, accusing the Philippine ship of “dangerous approach” and claiming the collision was Manila’s fault. This incident is not an anomaly but a textbook example of grey-zone coercion—a strategy of using force that stays just below the threshold of open warfare.
The United States responded swiftly. In an official statement, Washington condemned the “dangerous ramming” and reaffirmed that any armed attack on Philippine vessels would invoke the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). Regional allies including Australia and Japan echoed these concerns, calling for restraint and respect for international law.
Data reveals an alarming trend. According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), the frequency of such confrontations has more than doubled since 2023. The Philippines documented over 50 incidents of Chinese harassment within its EEZ in 2024 alone. This latest ramming near Pag-asa Island reinforces a dangerous normalization of coercion in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors.
As Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro stated, “These are not accidents—they’re deliberate, state-directed acts meant to wear down our resolve.” His words capture the essence of the challenge: defending sovereignty in the grey zone is a battle of endurance against slow, grinding pressure.
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Historical Context: From Legal Victory to Escalating Confrontation
“Whoever controls the sea has command of the trade routes of the world.”
— Alfred Thayer Mahan, naval strategist
The legal foundation of the Philippines’ position was cemented in July 2016, when the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague delivered a landmark ruling. The tribunal invalidated China’s “Nine-Dash Line”, affirming that features like the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) lie within the Philippines’ EEZ. It also ruled that China had violated Philippine sovereign rights. Despite being a signatory to UNCLOS, China dismissed the verdict as “null and void.” Nevertheless, this ruling remains Manila’s most powerful legal instrument in international diplomacy.
Since then, China’s tactics have evolved into open coercion, creating what analysts call an “escalation ladder.” At the Second Thomas Shoal, Philippine personnel resupplying the BRP Sierra Madre—a grounded ship serving as a sovereign outpost—face relentless harassment. Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels routinely employ water cannons, ramming, and military-grade lasers.
The data from 2025 paints a clear picture of intensifying pressure. Around Scarborough Shoal, Chinese Coast Guard patrols peaked at an unprecedented 120 ship-days in January, nearly double the rate from late 2024. This surge in presence has led to a record number of direct vessel interactions with Philippine law enforcement.
In response, Manila and its allies have moved from symbolism to substance. The 2025 Balikatan exercises were the largest ever, involving over 16,000 troops from the Philippines, the United States, Australia, and Japan. These drills focused on high-end Combined Joint All-Domain Operations to simulate the real-world defense of Philippine sovereignty, signaling a unified and robust deterrence posture.
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The Future of Freedom of Navigation: Transparency and Alliances
“The real test of power today is not whose army wins, but whose story wins.”
— Joseph Nye, Harvard University
China’s grey-zone strategy is a methodical playbook of exhaustion and isolation. It aims to stretch the Philippines’ limited maritime resources, blockade outposts like the BRP Sierra Madre, and control the global narrative through edited footage and disinformation.
The Philippines’ innovative counter-strategy can be summed up in one word: transparency. Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Manila has weaponized visibility through its “Transparency Initiative.” The Philippine Coast Guard now documents and publicizes nearly every confrontation. In 2024 alone, footage of Chinese harassment garnered over 47 million views online. Drones provide continuous monitoring, and foreign journalists are regularly embedded on resupply missions, turning each encounter into a global news event.
This doctrine of radical openness is backed by a strengthening network of allies. Military cooperation has expanded significantly:
- The U.S. pledged $500 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF).
- Japan delivered patrol vessels and TC-90 aircraft.
- Australia committed heavy landing craft.
- Joint patrols under the Maritime Cooperative Activity now include the U.S., Japan, and Australia.
Despite this, the situation remains dangerously fragile. As former Philippine Navy Vice Admiral Rommel Jude Ong warned, “We’re one miscalculation away from catastrophe.” The Philippine government has made it clear that any Filipino casualties resulting from Chinese aggression would trigger consultations under the Mutual Defense Treaty. A 2024 survey by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute found that 73% of Southeast Asians believe a major conflict in the South China Sea is likely by 2030. The margin for error has never been thinner.
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Conclusion: The Test of Resolve in the West Philippine Sea
“China’s gray zone tactics are meant to win without fighting — to change facts on the water before anyone notices.”
— Dr. Chester Cabalza, Philippine security analyst
The struggle for the West Philippine Sea is a definitive contest of the 21st century—a clash between the rule of law and the rule of force. China’s grey-zone warfare, employing water cannons, swarms, and ramming, is a calculated effort to reshape maritime borders through coercion rather than combat.
The Philippines, though outmatched in tonnage and numbers, has refused to capitulate. Through resolute sovereignty patrols, continued resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre, and a masterful transparency strategy, Manila has demonstrated that legitimacy and international law are formidable assets. Every viral video of harassment is not just evidence; it is an act of diplomatic defense.
This resolve has catalyzed a broader coalition. The expanding web of military exercises, joint patrols, and security assistance from the United States, Japan, Australia, and others proves that the Indo-Pacific will not accept a future dictated by coercion. The battle for these waters is not merely about rocks and reefs; it is about whether the rules-based international order will endure. In this long game, the Philippines stands as a testament to the power of principle, proving that courage and clarity can defend a nation’s patrimony against overwhelming force.
