Can Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea Join Forces Against China?

An Overview

In the geopolitical theater of the East and South China Sea, a chronicle of escalating tensions and geopolitical complexities is unfolding, shaped by historical disputes, military posturing, and the specter of a rising China’s military might. From the early clashes in 1988 to the contemporary challenges in 2023, the maritime disputes have evolved. We’ll discuss the anxieties surrounding China’s rise, the formidable capabilities of littoral states such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and the geostrategic implications of China’s ambitious Blue Navy Project. Against this backdrop, the prospect of a Joint Defense Agreement among the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea emerges, offering a range of scenarios from a defense pact to joint cooperation mechanism. If you want to understand the whole picture, we will recommend you to give your ample time. So, let us explore this issue holistically.

Chronology of Key Events and Escalating Tensions

The history of disputes between China and its neighboring countries in the South China Sea and the East China Sea is marked by a series of significant events. In 1982, the United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was established, outlining the rights and responsibilities of nations in their use of surrounding waters.

One of the earliest armed conflicts occurred in 1988, when China and Vietnam clashed on the Johnson Reef, resulting in the sinking of three Vietnamese ships. This marked a turning point in the region’s geopolitical landscape. China’s assertiveness continued in 1992 with the passage of the Law on the Territorial Sea subsequently, thereby laying claim to the entire South China Sea based on historical rights dating back to the Han dynasty.

Tensions escalated further in 1996 during the Mischief Reef incident, where Chinese naval vessels engaged in a battle with a Philippine navy gunboat. The following years witnessed diplomatic efforts, such as the 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, aimed at easing tensions and establishing guidelines for conflict resolution.

The East China Sea also became a focal point of contention. In 2012, Japan and China signed a Joint Energy Development Agreement, but disputes over the Chunxiao/Shirakaba field and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands persisted. In the southern domain, the Philippines opted for international arbitration under UNCLOS to address maritime disputes, culminating in a pivotal 2016 ruling that contested China’s claims in the South China Sea.

Subsequent years have witnessed a surge in militarization and confrontations within the region. China’s establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea in 2013, coupled with the deployment of missiles to the Paracel Islands in 2016, elicited concerns regarding regional stability. The year 2018 saw heightened tensions when a U.S. warship patrolled in proximity to islands constructed by China in the South China Sea, provoking a strong reaction from the Chinese authorities.

In 2023, tensions continued to escalate. The Philippines welcomed an expanded U.S. military presence through joint defense agreements, drawing objections from China. In addition to this, China’s release of an updated territorial map, including a “ten-dash line,” has sparked protests from ASEAN members, as well as from India, Japan, and Taiwan.

Anxiety Surrounding the Rise of Dragon

The anxiety surrounding the rise of China, often referred to as the “Dragon in the East,” is multifaceted and prominently observed in the East and South China Sea regions. This apprehension is rooted in several factors, including China’s assertive territorial claims, military build-up, and expansive maritime activities, which have led to heightened geopolitical tensions. One prominent concept that adds a theoretical perspective to this unease is the “Thucydides Trap,” a term coined by renowned political scientist, Graham Allison. The proposition posits that a burgeoning power, exemplified by China, and an established dominant force, such as the United States, are prone to conflict owing to the former’s challenge to the prevailing order. Lee Kuan Yew, the revered founding figure of Singapore, articulated in a 2013 interview that “The challenge for the United States is to manage China’s rise in a way that avoids war. This is a very difficult task, because China is not going to accept a status quo where it is subordinate to the United States.” He further emphasized the necessity for smaller countries in the region to be astute and formulate strategies to address the potential of conflict. Lee asserted, “Small countries need to be smart and have a plan in place for how to deal with the rise of China. They need to diversify their economies and build strong relationships with both the United States and China.” The prevailing unease surrounding China’s ascendance in the East and South China Sea is understandable. The Thucydides Trap is a useful framework for understanding the current situation in the East and South China Sea. The theory suggests that the United States and China are on a collision course due to their rivalry. This poses a significant challenge for both countries, as well as for smaller countries in the region.

Capabilities of the littoral states of the East & South China Sea

• Japan

Japan stands out as the most militarily powerful littoral state in the Far East, with a formidable military force known as the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF). The JSDF, particularly its Maritime Self-Defense Force, commands attention with more than 150 ships, including advanced destroyers, frigates, submarines, and aircraft carriers. The Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) complements this prowess with a fleet of more than 500 aircrafts, featuring top-of-the-line fighter jets like the F-35A Lightning II. Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) safeguards the nation’s land territory, and is equipped with modern tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery. With a military budget of totaling 6.8 trillion yen or $52 billion. The Japan’s defense force role extends beyond deterrence, as seen in its engagement in freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) challenging China’s maritime claims, joint exercises with regional partners like the United States, the Philippines, and Vietnam, and collaborative efforts to enhance maritime domain awareness in the region.

• Taiwan

Taiwan with its modern and well-equipped Armed Forces (ROCAF) holds a considerable say in the region. With a military budget of $19.4 billion in 2023 and a robust force including 169,000 active personnel, 1.66 million reserves, 474 aircraft, 1,200 tanks, and 110 warships, Taiwanese navy, is a force to reckon with, boasting more than 110 ships, advanced destroyers, frigates, submarines, and fast attack aircrafts. Armed with cutting-edge weaponry such as anti-ship missiles, torpedoes, and anti-submarine warfare systems, the ROCN plays a pivotal role in Taiwan’s maritime defense. The Air Force further solidifies Taiwan’s military might, featuring a fleet of over 400 aircrafts, including F-16 Fighting Falcons and F-CK-1 Chingkuo jets. Taiwan’s military include the HsiungFeng-III anti-ship missiles and ongoing development of hypersonic weapons. Taiwan collaborates cordially with regional partners, like the United States, Japan, and Australia to bolster its maritime security.

• South Korea

South Korea, is a powerful littoral state in the East China Sea arena, and maintains a formidable military through the Republic of Korea Armed Forces (ROKAF). Boasting the largest and most capable navy (ROKN) with more than 160 advanced ships and a well-equipped Air Force featuring a fleet of 600 aircraft, including cutting-edge fighter jets. The growing Army further fortifies defense on land with a force exceeding 618,000 troops and modern weaponry. A defense budget of $43.1 billion for 2023, showcases South Korea’s commitment to staying ahead of evolving security challenges.

South Korea has strategically allocated resources for initiatives like the KF-21 Boramae fighter jet and plans for Lockheed Martin’s F-35A and F-35B aircrafts. The nation’s pursuit of industrial self-sufficiency aligns with its dedication to technological advancements, positioning South Korea as a key player in shaping the region’s security landscape.

• The Philippines

The Philippines is restructuring its military modernization plan to enhance territorial and coastal defense in response to escalating tensions with China. The recent collision between Chinese ships and a Philippine military supply vessel underscores the urgency. General Romeo Brawner, the Philippine Army Chief of Staff, highlights the shift’s focus on safeguarding territories. The updated Horizon 3 modernization plan includes multirole fighter jets, radars, frigates, missile systems, helicopters, and the nation’s first submarine fleet. Despite budget constraints, the Philippine government has proposed a core 2024 defense budget of 4.1 billion dollars.

The Geostrategic Framework for China’s Blue Navy Project

In the historical context of maritime strategy, Alfred Thayer Mahan’s influential work, “The Influence of Sea Power upon History,” laid the foundation for the Sea Power Theory in 1890’s. Often referred to as the ‘Clausewitz of The Sea,’ Mahan categorized nations into those communicatively dependent on land and those reliant on the sea. His theory, encompassing six key elements, explored the maritime strength of a nation based on factors such as physical conformation, territorial extent, population size, character of the people, and government. Mahan emphasized the role of physical features, citing England and France pre-Napoleonic wars as examples. England’s geographic advantages led to a maritime focus for resources, while France, rich in resources, leaned more towards internal production.

In April 2023, China’s naval capabilities took center stage as a carrier battle group, led by the Shandong, conducted simulated air strikes near Taiwan, showcasing its expanding naval prowess. With the upcoming introduction of the third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, equipped with catapults for extended-range fighter missions, China is committed to project its power beyond the East and South China sea. Alongside advanced warships like the Fujian, the Chaganhu, a Type 901 underway replenishment ship, exemplifies the importance of logistical support in sustaining maritime operations far from coastal bases.

China’s ascent from a green-water navy to one with blue-water ambitions is evident in its development of over 340 warships, reflecting a desire for global maritime influence. Spanning three decades, China’s naval transformation has made it the largest navy in East Asia. The Department of Defense reports an expected growth of China’s navy from around 340 platforms to 400 ships by 2025 and 440 ships by 2030. China’s objectives include addressing potential conflicts with Taiwan, controlling its near-seas regions, securing commercial sea lines, challenging U.S. influence in the Western Pacific, and asserting itself as a global power with anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.

China’s pursuit of port access, illustrated by endeavors like the construction of a naval base in Cambodia, aligns with its broader strategy to establish a more expansive global footprint. As part of initiatives like the Belt and Road, China’s expanding naval presence, including facilities in Argentina and Cuba, raises concerns about geopolitical implications of China’s moves. Despite official denials, strategic initiatives analyzed by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies suggest China’s growing determination to secure additional naval outposts globally.

The United States Island Chain Containment Strategy?

 The island chain strategy, initially conceptualized by American statesman, John Foster Dulles, in 1951 during the Korean War, proposed a strategic containment plan surrounding the Soviet Union and China with naval bases in the West Pacific. While it did not take center stage during the Cold War, the concept remains pivotal in the geopolitical landscape, drawing significant attention from both American and Chinese analysts. For the United States, the island chain strategy is integral to its military force projection in the Far East. Conversely, for China, the concept is a cornerstone of its maritime security, with concerns about potential encirclement by U.S. armed forces. The island chain strategy encompasses three chains: the First Island Chain, acting as a historical defense line against the Soviet Union during the Cold War include countries like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines; the Second Island Chain, serving as a strategic defense line for the United States extends far beyond the first island chain in to the Pacific Ocean, and the Third Island Chain, extending across the Pacific Ocean toward Oceania. Beyond these three chains, the Fourth Island Chain, including locations like Lakshadweep and the Maldives, aims to disrupt key waypoints like the Gwadar Port and Hambantota, while the Fifth Island Chain spans from the Gulf of Aden to South Africa, encircling the Chinese naval base at Doraleh, Djibouti.

Likely Scenarios of Joint Defense Agreement between the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea

• Maritime Security Coalition

 Against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the East and especially the South China Sea, a plausible scenario involves the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea entering a Joint Defense Agreement with a primary focus on maritime security. This coalition, driven by shared concerns over China’s assertive territorial claims, envisions collaborative efforts encompassing intelligence-sharing, joint military exercises, and coordinated actions to uphold freedom of navigation. Leveraging Japan’s advanced maritime capabilities, Taiwan’s strategic location, South Korea’s robust military, and the Philippines’ commitment to defense enhancement, this coalition could aim to act as a deterrent against potential aggressive actions by the Chinese.

• More comprehensive Joint Defense Agreement that includes mutual defense

This scenario will be more ambitious and provocative, as it would commit the four countries to defending each other in the event of an attack. This would require joint military planning and training, as well as mutual assistance in the event of war. This scenario is less likely than the first one, as it would be more likely to trigger a negative reaction from China. However, it is still possible, especially if China continues to take aggressive actions in the region.

Strategic Cybersecurity and Technological Collaboration

Recognizing the evolving landscape of modern warfare and the growing importance of cyber and space capabilities, another plausible scenario entails a Joint Defense Agreement focusing on strategic cybersecurity and technological collaboration among the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. With Japan’s proficiency in cyber warfare, Taiwan’s technological prowess, South Korea’s innovation commitment, and the strategic position of the Philippines, this alliance could extend beyond defense to include joint research and development initiatives, ensuring the participating nations stay ahead in the technological arms race.

A bilateral Joint Defense Agreement between the Philippines and Taiwan, with Japan and South Korea as observers

This scenario would be a compromised scenario, as it would allow the Philippines and Taiwan to cooperate on defense without directly provoking China. Japan and South Korea could still provide support to the Philippines and Taiwan as observers, such as by providing intelligence and logistical assistance. This scenario is also possible, especially if the Philippines and Taiwan feel that they need to take additional steps to deter China from taking aggressive actions against them.

End Note

In the tumultuous East and South China Sea, escalating tensions marked by historical disputes and China’s military rise set the stage for complexity. Littoral states like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines boasts formidable military capabilities amid rising anxieties about China’s ascent, encapsulated by the Thucydides Trap. China’s expansive Blue Navy Project and the evolving island chain containment strategy add layers to the intricate scenario. Discussions of a Joint Defense Agreement among regional actors unfold against this backdrop, offering varied scenarios from maritime security coalitions to comprehensive mutual defense pacts.