 The Philippines’ Modernization Imperative: From Internal Security to Archipelagic Defense
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has historically focused on internal security challenges such as insurgencies and terrorism, with limited investment in external defense capabilities. This internal orientation, coupled with outdated equipment, left the country vulnerable to external threats. However, recent developments in the South China Sea, especially China’s growing assertiveness and aggressive maritime actions, have triggered a strategic pivot. The Philippines is now embracing the “Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept” (CADC), a major doctrinal shift aimed at securing the entire archipelago and protecting its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Tensions remain high, with recent incidents—like China’s use of water cannons near Pag-asa Cays and deployment of the massive “Monster†coast guard ship—drawing strong condemnation from Manila and its allies, including the United States.
In response, the Philippine government has increased its defense budget to ₱271.9 billion (US$4.65 billion) for 2025, marking a 12.3% rise from the previous year. While ₱35 billion is guaranteed for AFP modernization, an additional ₱40 billion may be released depending on government revenues. Despite this increase, the guaranteed modernization fund falls short of the ₱50 billion expected by the military. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has reaffirmed his commitment to transforming the AFP into a world-class force, a sentiment echoed by Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr., who emphasized re-establishing effective deterrence against destabilizing threats in the Indo-Pacific.
Modernization efforts are focused on acquiring new naval, air, and missile assets. The Navy is receiving two new missile corvettes and six offshore patrol vessels from South Korea, adding to its existing Jose Rizal-class frigates. Submarine acquisition is also a top priority under the Re-Horizon 3 program, with a ₱80–₱110 billion budget earmarked for two diesel-electric subs. In the air domain, the Philippines is expanding its FA-50 fighter fleet, acquiring additional A-29B Super Tucano attack aircraft, and continuing deliveries of Black Hawk helicopters. Future fighter acquisitions may include Saab’s Gripen, Lockheed Martin’s F-16s, or India’s Tejas LCA.
One of the most significant advancements in maritime defense is the procurement of BrahMos anti-ship missile batteries from India, with a second delivery completed in April 2025. These systems, customized for the Philippine environment, provide a vital deterrent against grey-zone threats. There are plans to acquire up to nine additional BrahMos batteries. Other projects under consideration include India’s Akash air defense missile and the U.S.-made HIMARS system. The AFP is also prioritizing cybersecurity, launching a $613 million initiative in partnership with Israeli firm RealEye.ai. Foreign assistance, particularly from the United States, remains crucial. The U.S. has restored $500 million in military aid and reaffirmed its defense commitments under the Mutual Defense Treaty, supporting key military projects and infrastructure at EDCA sites.
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New Naval Bases: Strategic Locations and Enhanced Capabilities
The Philippines is significantly enhancing its naval infrastructure with new bases in Subic Bay and Mindanao, marking a strategic leap in maritime defense and regional deterrence. Subic Bay, once home to the second-largest U.S. military base in the world, is experiencing a resurgence in strategic relevance. The groundbreaking of Naval Station Nabasan will establish a modern facility capable of supporting advanced naval operations, with a 180-meter-long wharf and a depth of 14 meters, situated near Grande Island. This base will offer the Philippine Navy direct access to the South China Sea, a vital area given the ongoing maritime tensions. Additionally, plans are underway to restore the former U.S. Naval Air Station at Cubi Point, transforming it into a forward-operating base for surveillance missions focused on contested areas like Scarborough Shoal.
Despite its historical importance, current Subic facilities are inadequate for supporting the entire Philippine fleet, prompting urgent efforts to develop more capable infrastructure. U.S. support has been instrumental, with upgrades at Oyster Bay Naval Detachment including new operational facilities and the installation of a gantry crane to boost logistical capacity. Moreover, the U.S. Navy is seeking to lease a large, climate-controlled storage facility near Subic Bay and Clark by 2026, indicating a long-term commitment to logistical coordination and forward-deployed readiness in the region.
In the southern Philippines, the establishment of a new naval support base in Misamis Oriental, Mindanao, will deepen the country’s maritime presence in the Sulu Sea. This base plays a critical role in monitoring maritime chokepoints and securing vital sea lanes, especially in light of Chinese warship transits through nearby waters. Its strategic location enhances the Philippines’ capability to respond swiftly to security threats, including piracy and illegal fishing, which have plagued the Sulu and Celebes Seas for years.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. emphasized that the new Mindanao base will enable a smooth transition of forces from Cavite, improving the Navy’s overall reach and flexibility. Furthermore, joint exercises with U.S. Marines are already being conducted in this southern region, reinforcing bilateral defense ties and readiness for potential maritime conflicts. Together, these developments underscore a broader effort by the Philippines to fortify its naval capabilities and assert control over its vast maritime territory amid growing regional tensions.
The US Forces Return to Subic Bay: A Direct Message to China?
The longstanding US-Philippines alliance continues to deepen, sending a clear strategic message amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. Rooted in the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), the partnership was further strengthened by the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which now covers nine strategic locations across the Philippines as of 2023. These agreements facilitate joint military exercises, rotational presence, and the construction of US facilities on Philippine soil. Notably, new bilateral defense guidelines signed in May 2023 explicitly extend mutual defense commitments to armed attacks in the South China Sea, underscoring the alliance’s regional focus.
Under EDCA, the US is actively building up its military presence in Subic Bay, including a recently leased 57,000-square-foot warehouse to support humanitarian and military operations by 2026, with plans for an even larger climate-controlled facility nearby. This build-up includes aiding the Philippine Navy with new infrastructure such as a naval pier at Subic Bay and expanding joint exercises like the historic Balikatan 2025 drills, which involved over 14,000 troops from multiple countries. These exercises featured sophisticated missile defense simulations and the deployment of advanced U.S. weaponry, showcasing enhanced interoperability and deterrence capabilities.
This growing military cooperation between the US and the Philippines is widely viewed as a direct response to China’s assertive maritime claims and activities in the South China Sea. The US regularly conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s extensive territorial claims, although some studies suggest these operations have increased regional tensions. Still, US and Philippine officials stress the importance of deterrence to maintain stability and uphold international law. Meanwhile, China has expressed concern over the alliance, warning against actions that could undermine regional peace and accusing the US of a history of broken promises. Tensions have also manifested in espionage incidents, with Philippine authorities arresting Chinese nationals allegedly spying on US naval activities at Subic Bay.
Together, these developments signal a robust US-Philippines defense partnership aimed at preserving regional security amid the evolving Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape. The alliance not only strengthens the Philippines’ military capacity but also sends a firm message to Beijing regarding the commitment of both nations to protect their interests and maintain freedom of navigation in contested waters.
Thousands of U.S. Military Vehicles Land in Philippines – China Furious
The South China Sea Conundrum: The Core of the Tension
The South China Sea remains a flashpoint of geopolitical tension, with China’s assertiveness at the core of the conundrum. Central to Beijing’s expansive maritime claims is the controversial “Nine-Dash Line,” which was invalidated by a 2016 international arbitral ruling. Nonetheless, China continues to disregard this legal decision, bolstering its claims through aggressive “grey zone” tactics. These include large-scale artificial island building—particularly in the Spratly Islands—where military facilities and airstrips have been constructed. Notably, Vietnam has also contributed to the island-building race, reclaiming over 2,200 acres as of March 2025. China’s maritime militia and coast guard, often referred to as the “little blue men,” have played a key role in enforcing these claims, engaging in harassment and dangerous maneuvers against other nations’ vessels. A stark example occurred in May 2025, when a Chinese coast guard vessel reportedly used water cannons and sideswiped a Philippine research ship near Sandy Cay.
In response, the Philippines has remained steadfast in asserting its sovereignty and maritime rights based on the 2016 arbitral ruling. Manila has ramped up diplomatic efforts, forging closer security partnerships with countries like the United States, Japan, and Australia. This multilateral strategy aims to strengthen collective resistance to coercive Chinese actions. The Philippines has also prioritized transparency, systematically documenting and publicizing incidents involving Chinese vessels. Recent efforts include April 2025 landings by Philippine forces on contested features, directly challenging earlier moves by Chinese personnel who had planted flags on the same islands. Such actions underscore the growing boldness of Manila’s maritime posture.
The international community has largely backed the Philippines. The United States has reaffirmed its “ironclad commitment” to Philippine defense, particularly under the new Bilateral Defense Guidelines signed in 2023, which extend mutual defense obligations to include armed attacks in the South China Sea. Joint military exercises and defense cooperation continue to expand, reinforcing deterrence. Meanwhile, other allies like Australia and Japan have voiced strong concern over China’s behavior and have provided diplomatic and security support to Manila. These international alignments demonstrate a broader commitment to upholding international law and maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Amid growing regional friction, the Philippines is also accelerating the modernization of its naval and maritime capabilities. This includes procuring new vessels and surveillance technologies to enhance patrols within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). These developments highlight a strategic pivot by Manila—from diplomatic protest to a more proactive and defensive posture—aimed at deterring further incursions and securing its maritime interests in one of the world’s most contested waterways.
Conclusion
The Philippines is undergoing a strategic transformation through an integrated approach that combines defense modernization, the development of new naval bases, and a strengthened alliance with the United States, all aimed at countering mounting threats—especially from China in the South China Sea. This shift is underscored by the revival of Subic Bay, increased U.S. investments exceeding $210 million in EDCA sites, and the historic 2025 Balikatan exercises involving over 14,000 troops, showcasing enhanced interoperability and missile defense capabilities. The acquisition of advanced systems like the BrahMos cruise missiles, NMESIS integration, and upcoming Miguel Malvar-class frigates significantly boosts the country’s maritime and coastal defense, while Philippine Army Chief General Roy M. Galido emphasizes the enduring value of land power and alliances for regional stability. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed America’s commitment to deterrence during his Manila visit, although China views these developments as provocative, with warnings from its defense ministry framing the Philippines as a pawn of foreign interests. Looking forward, Manila’s pursuit of submarines under Re-Horizon 3 reflects long-term ambitions to complicate adversary calculations, but experts caution that growing militarization could also elevate the risk of unintended confrontations, placing the Indo-Pacific at a crucial juncture between strategic deterrence and escalation.
