The United States has outlined a strategic plan to enhance the readiness of its Navy in preparation for potential conflict with China by 2027, with the goal of deterring aggression and protecting national security interests. The plan, known as Project 33, is aligned with China’s military buildup and its stated goal of preparing for an invasion of Taiwan by 2030. U.S. Navy Chief Admiral Lisa Franchetti has reiterated the urgency of increasing military readiness in response to China’s growing hostility, particularly in territorial disputes involving the Philippines and Taiwan. The plan includes technological advancements, increased recruitment, and enhanced combat training.
A key component of this strategy is improving the operational readiness of the U.S. Navy by 2027, coinciding with the timeline set by Chinese President Xi Jinping for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The U.S. Navy’s efforts focus on modernizing its fleet through the development of unmanned surface vessels, drones, and advanced weapon systems. Additionally, lessons learned from military engagements in the Red Sea and the Black Sea, particularly regarding the use of technology and training, are being integrated into preparations for a potential conflict with China.
To address recruitment challenges, the U.S. Navy is investing heavily in attracting and retaining sailors. This is a crucial aspect of the strategy, as the Navy requires a sufficient number of personnel to operate and maintain its advanced technologies. The Navy is also focusing on strengthening its partnerships with regional allies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. In 2014, the U.S. and the Philippines signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows U.S. forces to use Philippine military bases for joint training, humanitarian missions, and rotational deployments.
The agreement is central to the U.S. military’s presence in the region, with several Philippine bases being upgraded to support the growing military needs. The U.S. has invested millions of dollars in enhancing these bases, including the construction of new infrastructure and the deployment of advanced surveillance technology, such as unmanned MQ-9 Reaper drones. These upgrades aim to enhance the Philippines’ defense capabilities and support U.S. efforts to counter China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
The U.S. and the Philippines are also focused on bolstering their military presence in key areas of the South China Sea, particularly near contested waters. One major project is the development of Subic Bay, which was once a major U.S. Navy base. Subic Bay’s deep-water harbor will be used to support the Philippines’ maritime patrols, fighter jets, and missile storage. The Philippines is also upgrading its air and naval facilities in other strategic locations, including Pagasa Island in the disputed Spratlys and Balabac Island in Palawan, both critical to enhancing defense in the region.
In addition to the military infrastructure upgrades, the Philippines is investing in airports and seaports to improve its ability to respond to potential Chinese aggression. The Pagasa Island airport project is particularly important, as it will provide greater access to the remote island, which is strategically located in the South China Sea. This development is part of a broader effort by the Philippines to assert its territorial claims and improve its defensive posture amid rising tensions with China. Similarly, the construction of military airstrips in the region will allow for rapid deployment of forces in the event of a conflict.
Another critical development is the focus on the northernmost islands of the Philippines, particularly Batanes, which is located just 200 km from Taiwan. The Philippines has been increasing its military presence on these islands, which are positioned near vital maritime chokepoints that could be used by China in the event of a conflict. The Philippines and the U.S. have initiated joint patrols in the region, which are designed to enhance coordination and surveillance in the face of Chinese territorial expansion. The U.S. military has also been granted access to strategic locations like Fuga Island, which could be used for launching operations or countering Chinese naval movements.
The Philippines’ strategic position is crucial for U.S. military planning in the Indo-Pacific. The country sits along the first island chain, a key geographical barrier to Chinese expansion. The U.S. has recognized the importance of this alliance, as the Philippines’ proximity to Taiwan and the South China Sea makes it a critical partner in countering Chinese aggression. The mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and the Philippines allows for increased U.S. military presence in the region, reinforcing the role of the Philippines as a key strategic partner in the event of conflict with China. This collaboration is expected to play a pivotal role in ensuring regional stability and maintaining open sea lanes for global trade.
Strategic Naval Goals for 2027
The U.S. Navy is accelerating its efforts to prepare for potential high-end conflict, particularly with a focus on China’s growing military capabilities. Admiral Franchetti’s strategic guidance highlights two key objectives: readiness for a potential conflict with China by 2027 and enhancing long-term warfighting advantages. To achieve this, the Navy is emphasizing critical areas like ship repair infrastructure, command center readiness, and integration of lessons from recent conflicts. This strategy aligns closely with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s directive for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared for action by 2030. The Navy’s strategy also focuses on scaling up autonomous systems, enhancing distributed command centers, and improving recruitment, retention, and personnel training. These steps aim to counter the PLA’s growing strength and address the increasing likelihood of a military confrontation over Taiwan, which experts believe could occur by 2027.
Drawing lessons from recent conflicts, the Navy is studying Ukraine’s use of advanced technologies, such as drones, robotic vessels, and missiles, in the Black Sea to challenge Russian forces. The ongoing conflict in Yemen, where Houthi rebels deploy drones and ballistic missiles against commercial ships, has further highlighted the evolving nature of modern naval warfare. These insights are shaping the Navy’s approach to unmanned vessels, disaggregated forces, and low-cost weaponry. To meet these ambitious goals, Admiral Franchetti has set a target for 80% of naval forces to be deployment-ready at all times and called for comprehensive repair efforts for critical infrastructure like piers and runways. She acknowledged the challenges of these “big, hairy, audacious goals” (BHAG) but stresses that achieving them will enhance deterrence against Chinese aggression, thereby maintaining regional stability and global security.
US-Philippine Defense Cooperation
The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the United States and the Philippines has significantly deepened defense collaboration between the two nations. In February 2023, both countries announced the inclusion of four new military sites, increasing the total number from five to nine. These strategically positioned locations—Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Isabela, Balabac Island in Palawan, and Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan—are close to Taiwan and the South China Sea, reflecting a response to China’s increasing military presence and territorial assertions. The EDCA permits rotational deployments of U.S. forces and the construction of necessary facilities but prohibits permanent U.S. bases. The United States has committed over $128 million for infrastructure development at the new sites, supplementing $82 million allocated to existing locations. These upgrades, which include airstrips, storage facilities, and command centers, aim to modernize Philippine defense infrastructure, improve interoperability between the two militaries, and enhance their capacity to respond to regional security challenges. Additionally, these investments promise economic benefits for local communities, such as job creation and long-term growth.
The expansion of EDCA comes amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea and increasing concerns over a potential conflict involving Taiwan. China has strongly opposed the proximity of these sites to Taiwan, viewing them as provocative, while local opposition in the Philippines, notably from leaders like Cagayan Governor Manuel Mamba, reflects fears of provoking China and escalating conflict. Despite these concerns, the U.S. continues to invest heavily in defense projects, with $56.8 million spent on the original five sites between 2014 and 2023 and an additional $82 million allocated for 21 new projects. In fiscal year 2024, 34 more projects are planned, including the construction of a port in Batanes and a naval detachment on Mavulis Island to strengthen maritime law enforcement. While some experts caution that these sites should prepare for contingencies like refugee influxes, many agree that continued U.S. support is vital for deterring Chinese aggression and ensuring regional stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Key Base Developments in the Philippines
In 2024, the Philippines is making significant strides in modernizing its military infrastructure to bolster defense capabilities amid rising regional tensions, particularly in the South China Sea. Basa Air Base in Pampanga, a key site for the Philippine Air Force, is undergoing a major upgrade, including a new 58,000-square-meter parking apron capable of accommodating up to 20 aircraft. Funded by the U.S. Pacific Deterrence Initiative with a $32 million contract awarded to Acciona CMS Philippines LLC, the project is set for completion in 2026. This development aims to enhance the operational readiness of both Philippine and U.S. forces. Complementing these upgrades, new surveillance systems at Basa Air Base and Subic Bay will boost situational awareness, while additional military airbases on Pag-asa and Balabac Islands are being developed for rapid deployment capabilities. Concurrently, the Philippine Navy is expanding its infrastructure to support newly acquired assets, including two missile corvettes and six offshore patrol vessels. The Naval Operating Base (NOB) in Subic Bay is undergoing continuous enhancements, including plans for a finger pier to dock larger ships, reinforcing the country’s ability to address maritime threats and assert sovereignty in contested waters like the Scarborough Shoal.
These military upgrades are closely tied to the Philippines’ strategic objective of maintaining sovereignty and security in its exclusive economic zone, where territorial disputes with China are increasingly frequent. The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States plays a crucial role, enabling rotational deployments of U.S. forces and joint operations that enhance regional deterrence. Beyond defense, these investments have broader implications for the Philippine economy. Infrastructure development, business reforms, and tax incentives under initiatives like the CREATE MORE program are expected to drive economic growth, with projections of 6 to 6.5 percent for 2024 and a longer-term forecast of 6 to 8 percent. The government anticipates revenues reaching PHP6.25 trillion by the end of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration. These combined efforts in defense and economic policy highlight the Philippines’ commitment to strengthening resilience, competitiveness, and security amid evolving regional challenges.
Focus on Taiwan Proximity
The Philippines is strategically enhancing its military infrastructure in response to escalating regional tensions, particularly due to the proximity of its northernmost territories to Taiwan and the South China Sea. The Philippine Navy is developing a new outpost on Fuga Island to fortify defenses against potential threats in these contested areas. In the Batanes Islands, which lie closer to Taiwan than Manila, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has deployed advanced communication systems, including Harris radios on islands such as Calayan, Fuga, and Mavulis. These efforts form part of a broader initiative to bolster operational readiness, supported by infrastructure improvements like new airstrips and surveillance systems. Joint military exercises, such as the 2024 Balikatan drills with U.S. forces, underscore the Philippines’ commitment to maintaining a strong strategic posture. These measures are designed to ensure readiness in the face of a potential Chinese escalation in the Taiwan Strait, which could disrupt regional security and affect trade flows crucial to Southeast Asian economies.
A potential conflict over Taiwan presents significant risks for Southeast Asia, with the Philippines playing a pivotal role due to its strategic alliance with the United States. While many ASEAN nations would likely strive to remain neutral, their responses would vary depending on the conflict’s progression. Countries like Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia may opt for neutrality unless directly impacted, while nations such as Cambodia and Myanmar might lean toward supporting Beijing. The intersection of a Taiwan crisis with South China Sea disputes adds further complexity, as China could use its bases in the Paracel or Spratly Islands to stage operations. Though China may avoid escalating these claims to prevent alienating Southeast Asian nations, the Philippines’ geographic and strategic position makes neutrality difficult. In such a scenario, ASEAN unity could fracture, with the Philippines aligning more closely with the U.S. while other members adopt divergent stances. This fragmentation risks undermining regional cohesion, potentially dividing ASEAN into pro-U.S. and pro-China factions and destabilizing the broader Southeast Asian geopolitical landscape.
Philippine Maritime Presence
Tensions in the South China Sea remain high, particularly around the contested Scarborough Shoal, where the Philippines and China recently clashed in a maritime incident. On December 4, 2024, China accused four Philippine vessels of illegally entering its territorial waters, claiming that one of the ships ignored warnings and endangered a Chinese vessel. The Philippines Coast Guard (PCG), however, described the event as a Chinese provocation, accusing Chinese vessels of firing water cannons, sideswiping a Philippine ship, and executing dangerous maneuvers. This incident follows a diplomatic dispute in November, when China submitted new nautical charts to the United Nations asserting its claims over the shoal, which lies within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Philippines, supported by a 2016 ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated China’s “nine-dash line” claim, continues to assert its sovereignty. Despite the ruling, China maintains a strong presence around the shoal, complicating efforts to de-escalate tensions and threatening regional stability.
The Scarborough Shoal dispute reflects broader geopolitical dynamics in the South China Sea, a region crucial for global trade and rich in resources. Approximately one-third of global maritime commerce passes through these waters, making the region strategically significant. The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, relies on Washington’s commitment under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty to counter China’s assertive maritime activities. While Manila seeks to defend its sovereignty, it also aims to balance its economic relationship with China, a major trading partner. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict remain stymied by the absence of a binding code of conduct between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The latest confrontation underscores the urgency for effective dispute management mechanisms and international pressure on China to comply with international law. As China expands its naval capabilities, the risk of further confrontations remains high, making regional stability increasingly precarious. The international community must play a crucial role in supporting adherence to international norms to prevent escalation in this strategically vital waterway.
First Island Chain and U.S. Strategy
The United States is recalibrating its military strategy to counter China’s expanding anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, which threaten U.S. power projection in the Western Pacific. China’s advancements in medium and intermediate-range ballistic missile technology, bolstered by rapid military modernization, have rendered traditional U.S. reliance on large, centralized bases and aircraft carriers increasingly vulnerable. In response, the Pentagon is adopting a more flexible approach, focusing on smaller, agile forces capable of denying China’s ability to dominate the region. Central to this strategy is the Philippines, whose geographic location provides critical access to key maritime routes and enables the U.S. to project power and counterbalance China’s influence. This partnership has strengthened through enhanced intelligence-sharing agreements, joint reconnaissance missions, and initiatives like Task Force-Ayungin, supporting Philippine operations in the South China Sea. The participation of international partners, such as the French Navy in the 2024 Balikatan exercises, further underscores the growing multilateral effort to secure regional stability and deter Chinese aggression.
To support this strategic shift, the U.S. is deploying innovative operational concepts and technologies. Initiatives like the Replicator program aim to field swarms of low-cost drones to augment traditional manned platforms, while the Marine Corps’ Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) enable small, mobile units to position antiship missiles across key islands. The Air Force’s Agile Combat Employment (ACE) disperses aircraft to mitigate vulnerabilities and sustain strike capabilities during a crisis. Additionally, alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and new partnerships like AUKUS enhance regional defense coordination. However, this strategy presents challenges, such as balancing the survivability of dispersed forces with their striking power and determining optimal force positioning relative to China’s missile threat. Diplomatic and political considerations further complicate this approach, as countries like the Philippines and Japan may face domestic pressures against hosting large U.S. military presences. As tensions escalate, these trade-offs will be pivotal in shaping the effectiveness of the U.S.’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy.
How the US Military Revive Naval Base in Subic Bay to Defend the Philippines from Chinese Invasion?
Mutual Defense Treaty Reinforcement
In 2024, the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) has been significantly reinforced to address escalating tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Joint U.S.-Philippine naval exercises have been pivotal in this effort, focusing on anti-submarine warfare and night patrol operations to enhance interoperability and maritime security. These exercises aim to counter China’s increasingly assertive actions, particularly its refusal to recognize the 2016 international ruling that invalidated its expansive territorial claims. The strategic importance of Philippine waters, ideal for stealth submarine operations, underscores the MDT’s role in maintaining regional stability. These drills demonstrate a clear commitment to protecting shared interests and ensuring freedom of navigation in contested waters, emphasizing the need for a strong, united front against potential threats.
Another key milestone was the signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSMIA) on November 18, 2024, which allows for the sharing of classified military information and facilitates the streamlined sale of sensitive technologies. This agreement enhances joint operations, exercises, and humanitarian efforts, strengthening the defense partnership amid rising Chinese influence. The deal was signed during U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s fourth visit to the Philippines, reflecting the deepening security ties between the two nations. Additionally, the U.S. has provided substantial military support, including a $500 million assistance package and access to four additional military bases in the Philippines. The Philippines’ interest in acquiring advanced systems like the Typhon midrange missile system further cements this alliance. These developments indicate that under the MDT, the U.S. remains poised to support the Philippines if conflict arises, reinforcing a commitment to regional security and stability.
Regional Impact of U.S.-Philippine Alliance
In 2024, the U.S.-Philippine alliance has emerged as a cornerstone of the U.S. defense perimeter in the Indo-Pacific, reinforcing deterrence capabilities against regional threats, particularly China and North Korea. The Philippines’ strategic location enables the U.S. to forward-deploy military assets for rapid response to crises in key areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Enhanced military cooperation between the two nations includes advanced joint exercises and increased troop rotations, signaling a credible deterrent against aggression and reassuring other regional allies of Washington’s commitment to security. The establishment of the Bilateral Defense Guidelines in 2023 further strengthened this alliance by outlining priority areas for joint military efforts and reinforcing the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). These measures are part of a broader U.S. strategy to counter China’s expanding influence and maintain a robust presence in contested waters, safeguarding freedom of navigation and regional stability.
This deepening U.S.-Philippine partnership unfolds against the backdrop of intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, marked by a series of confrontational incidents. In 2023, aggressive Chinese maneuvers, such as intercepting a U.S. spy plane over the South China Sea and a near-collision with a U.S. destroyer in the Taiwan Strait, underscored the risk of conflict. These tensions mirror the 2001 collision incident that led to a major diplomatic standoff. As the U.S. continues its freedom of navigation operations and military deployments, China accuses Washington of containment policies aimed at undermining its rise. This escalating competition has significant implications for Asia-Pacific nations, which benefit from U.S. security guarantees and China’s infrastructure investments but may face difficult strategic choices. The future of regional stability will depend on how these countries balance their interests amid growing superpower tensions and navigate the delicate equilibrium between economic cooperation and security alliances.
How The Philippines’ NEW STANDARD MAP Counter China’s 10-Dash Line Claim?
