In mid-October 2024, Taiwan’s defense ministry reported an ominous yet increasingly routine event—China’s aircraft carrier group sailed through the Taiwan Strait, coming dangerously close to the Pratas Islands. While seemingly part of regular military drills, this naval maneuver carried immense geopolitical weight, sending a clear signal to Taipei, Washington, and the broader international community. It was not an isolated incident but one of many that reveal China’s growing assertiveness, military modernization, and strategic ambitions.
Just days later, President Xi Jinping, during a visit to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, issued a commanding directive: “ensure combat readiness at all times.” His speech, delivered to the elite unit responsible for China’s nuclear and conventional missile capabilities, underscored the gravity of the situation in the Indo-Pacific region. The Rocket Force’s enhanced strategic deterrence was highlighted as central to China’s evolving military posture. These incidents, when combined with China’s relentless activities in the South China Sea, point to an overarching question that international observers cannot ignore: Is China preparing for war?
The Centerpiece of China’s Military Strategy
At the heart of China’s military posturing lies Taiwan. Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province, a part of its sovereign territory that must eventually be reunified—by force if necessary. Military exercises around Taiwan have escalated dramatically since Tsai Ing-wen took office as president in 2016, reflecting Taiwan’s increasing desire to assert its political autonomy and Beijing’s growing frustration.
The 2024 passage of China’s aircraft carrier group through the Taiwan Strait, along with the deployment of over 100 jets, drones, and warships around the island, underscores China’s intent to maintain military pressure on Taipei. This behavior is not new; it reflects Beijing’s evolving doctrine of “strategic deterrence” aimed at both coercing Taiwan and signaling its readiness to external actors, particularly the U.S., that it is prepared to escalate tensions if its red lines are crossed.
Beijing’s military posture towards Taiwan is also a reflection of China’s broader goals. By securing Taiwan, China would gain a critical geostrategic position, controlling access to vital shipping lanes and projecting power deeper into the Pacific. Moreover, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is crucial to China’s technological ambitions, as its takeover would give Beijing greater control over global supply chains for advanced technologies. The situation, therefore, is not only about political reunification but also about economic and military dominance in the region.
Militarization of the South China Sea
Parallel to its actions in the Taiwan Strait, China’s militarization of the South China Sea presents another dimension of its broader military strategy. Over the past decade, Beijing has fully militarized several artificial islands, equipping them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and even fighter jets. The significance of these moves cannot be overstated. Control over the South China Sea gives China the ability to dominate one of the world’s most important trade routes, through which nearly a third of global maritime traffic passes.
Satellite imagery has also revealed new radar systems, such as the Synthetic Impulse and Aperture Radar (SIAR) on Triton Island, designed to detect stealth aircraft. These systems augment China’s intelligence capabilities, allowing Beijing to monitor foreign military activities in the region more effectively and counter any potential adversarial presence.
The international response to China’s militarization of the South China Sea has been mixed. The United States has conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the region to challenge China’s claims, emphasizing the need to maintain open sea lanes. The U.S. has also bolstered defense ties with allies such as Japan, the Philippines, and Australia to counter China’s influence. Yet, despite these efforts, China’s militarization of the area continues unabated, raising concerns about the potential for a military confrontation in the near future.
Technological and Strategic Advancements
China’s military preparedness extends beyond sheer military force. The country has made remarkable advancements in technology and strategic planning that give it an edge in modern warfare. Hypersonic missile technology is one such advancement. The DF-17, a medium-range ballistic missile equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle, is capable of traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5, making it nearly impossible to intercept. These missiles provide Beijing with a strategic deterrent, particularly in a potential conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea.
The development of stealth fighters like the Chengdu J-20, designed for long-range missions with advanced avionics, further underscores China’s growing military capabilities. Similarly, China’s Type 003 aircraft carrier, named *Fujian*, features an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), which enhances the efficiency of deploying fighter jets and other military aircraft.
China’s cyber and electronic warfare capabilities also add a crucial dimension to its preparedness. The PLA has invested heavily in cyber warfare, both offensively and defensively. Notably, China’s offensive cyber capabilities were showcased during the Tianfu Cup, a competition where hackers demonstrated their ability to exploit vulnerabilities in widely used software. Simultaneously, China’s defensive cyber infrastructure is becoming more robust, with cyber ranges being built across provinces to test and refine these capabilities.
These technological advancements have made China a formidable military power in the Indo-Pacific, where it aims to project influence not just through military might but also by leveraging technology, intelligence, and cyber warfare to gain an advantage over regional and global competitors.
Escalating Tensions with Regional Neighbors
China’s assertiveness has not been limited to Taiwan or the South China Sea. Its maritime confrontations with the Philippines have escalated, particularly over disputed areas in the South China Sea. In 2024, confrontations at sea and in the air became frequent, involving boat rammings, water cannon assaults, and aggressive flyovers. The Philippines, backed by its Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S., has called upon Washington to reaffirm its commitment to the defense of Philippine sovereignty.
These tensions, coupled with China’s military buildup in the region, have drawn concern from neighboring countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, which also have territorial disputes with China. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), despite its efforts to maintain unity, has struggled to form a coherent response to China’s assertive behavior. Divisions within ASEAN—particularly between countries like the Philippines and Vietnam that are directly affected by China’s actions, and those like Cambodia and Laos, which are more aligned with Beijing—have hampered the bloc’s ability to respond collectively to Chinese aggression.
Western Containment and Strategic Competition
The Western response to China’s growing military capabilities has been largely shaped by the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. Washington views China’s military buildup as a direct challenge to the existing international order and has taken several steps to counter Beijing’s influence. The United States’ defense budget for 2024 includes significant allocations for bolstering military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, particularly through the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. This initiative aims to strengthen U.S. military presence in the region, increase joint military exercises with allies, and improve missile defense systems to counter China’s growing missile capabilities.
The United States has also reinforced its alliances with countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Japan, in particular, has increased its defense spending and modernized its Self-Defense Forces, signaling its willingness to play a more active role in countering China’s ambitions. Japan’s defense ties with Taiwan, though unofficial, have grown stronger, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
Moreover, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, has taken on greater significance as a strategic counterbalance to China. The Quad’s military exercises, known as the Malabar exercises, have become more frequent and focused on enhancing interoperability between member navies, a clear signal of preparedness for any potential conflict with China.
The European response, while less direct, has also been significant. The United Kingdom and France have increased their naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, conducting freedom of navigation operations and joint exercises with regional allies. The European Union has also adopted a more critical stance on China, particularly over its actions in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. However, Europe remains divided over how to respond to China, as countries like Germany and Italy seek to balance economic ties with Beijing against growing security concerns.
Economic and Diplomatic Dimensions
China’s military buildup is not solely a product of its desire for military superiority; it is also driven by economic and political factors. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plays a crucial role in this strategy, as it involves constructing and managing key infrastructure, including ports and railways, in strategically significant locations. These projects give China economic leverage while enhancing its military and logistical capabilities. For instance, dual-use infrastructure in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia could be quickly militarized in times of conflict, giving China strategic access to crucial maritime chokepoints.
Diplomatically, China has sought to maintain a balancing act—advancing its military and strategic goals while avoiding direct military confrontation. It has used economic incentives, particularly through the BRI, to co-opt smaller states and isolate regional opposition. However, the growing international awareness of China’s coercive tactics has led to a backlash, as evidenced by increasing resistance to BRI projects in countries like Sri Lanka and Malaysia.
End Note: A Tense Future
China’s military preparations, technological advancements, and aggressive posturing in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait suggest a nation readying itself for potential conflict. Whether this preparation will culminate in war remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Beijing views military power as an essential tool for achieving its broader geopolitical ambitions.
The question for the international community is not whether China is preparing for war—it undoubtedly is—but rather how long this preparation will remain a form of deterrence rather than a prelude to actual conflict. The U.S. and its allies are intensifying their efforts to counter China’s rise, but the success of these efforts will depend on maintaining regional alliances, improving military readiness, and ensuring that diplomacy remains a viable path to peace. As China continues to modernize its military and assert its dominance, the world watches, bracing for what could be one of the most significant power shifts of the 21st century.
