The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict stands as a long-standing and deeply entrenched issue, afflicting both Armenia and Azerbaijan since the waning years of the Soviet Union. Characterized as a “protracted conflict,” it has defied lasting resolution, drawing international attention and posing significant geopolitical challenges. A roundtable hosted by the United States Institute of Peace in March 1998 brought together leading experts to dissect this complex issue, aiming to unearth the underlying factors and shared interests that might pave the way for a comprehensive settlement.
Historical Roots and Regional Dynamics
The roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict extend deep into history, but its modern manifestation can be traced to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. As newly independent successor states grappled with defining their borders, Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominantly Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, became a flashpoint for territorial disputes. The enclave’s aspiration for self-determination culminated in a full-scale military conflict, culminating in a fragile ceasefire in 1994. While this ceasefire temporarily halted large-scale hostilities, it left behind a legacy of displacement and uncertainty, casting a long shadow over prospects for lasting peace.
Political Factors: Elections and Leadership
Distinct from many other post-Soviet conflicts, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue exerts a profound influence on the electoral politics of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Armenia, the 1998 presidential elections saw the ascent of Robert Kocharian, a staunch advocate for Nagorno-Karabakh, to power. Conversely, Azerbaijan’s electoral landscape, tarnished by allegations of corruption, has made the government increasingly reluctant to appear yielding to Armenian demands, fearing political repercussions.
International Involvement and Diplomacy
One striking feature of this conflict is the substantial level of international interest it has garnered. Traditional regional powers, Russia and Turkey, find themselves on opposing sides, further complicating diplomatic efforts. The United States, striving to appease its influential Armenian diaspora while also securing alternative oil routes through Azerbaijan, faces a challenging balancing act.
The OSCE’s Minsk Group: A Changing Diplomatic Approach
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has played an active role in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through its Minsk Group. While earlier plans, like the one proposed in September 1997, generated mixed reactions and even political turmoil in Armenia, recent proposals introduced the idea of a “common state” for Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan swiftly rejected this concept, viewing it as a potential step towards independence for the disputed region. Nevertheless, these recent proposals signify evolving diplomatic dynamics, mirroring subtle shifts in the political landscape of the conflict.
Historical Context and Regional Tensions
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has deep historical roots within the geopolitics of the Soviet Union’s collapse. In 1923, Soviet authorities officially established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, despite the region’s predominantly Armenian population. This pivotal decision laid the foundation for ethnic tensions that eventually escalated to a climax in 1988 when the regional legislature of Nagorno-Karabakh voted in favor of becoming part of Armenia. Despite the implementation of the Bishkek Protocol in 1994, which aimed to secure a ceasefire, the situation has remained precarious ever since. It has been marked by sporadic clashes and significant casualties, notably during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020.
Geostrategic Complexities and the Fragility of Ceasefires
The geopolitics of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are far from straightforward. Russia, historically aligned with Armenia, openly supports its cause, while Turkey stands firmly behind Azerbaijan. The United States’ explicit endorsement of Armenia introduces a heightened level of convolution into the already intricate web of regional politics. This convolution further complicates Russia’s multifarious involvement in the region. As the Minsk Group’s endeavors encountered hurdles and as other global powerhouses confronted their distinctive challenges, the European Union, with resolve, embraced a more assertive role in the arduous task of mediating the persistent conflict. These intricate dynamics came to a head in September 2020 when hostilities escalated, ultimately culminating in a Russian-brokered agreement that reinstated a fragile peace.
Political Dynamism and Domestic Challenges
Internal political dynamics in both Armenia and Azerbaijan further complicate peace efforts. In Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan faced domestic upheaval following territorial losses in 2020. Conversely, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, driven by territorial advancements, has intensified his grip on Nagorno-Karabakh. This escalation has worsened an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe and stands as a looming threat to the painstakingly nurtured peace negotiations of recent months.
Humanitarian Concerns and Shifting Diplomacy
The humanitarian toll of the conflict is mounting, with blockades leading to severe shortages and loss of life in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s unwavering stance in maintaining its blockade, even in the face of mounting international pressure, leaves the region teetering on the verge of yet another looming humanitarian catastrophe. Simultaneously, the U.S. has signaled renewed commitment to Armenia through high-profile visits, such as Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s, while Russia’s credibility as a security guarantor in the region has faced increasing scrutiny due to its limited involvement in various flashpoints.
Outlook for the Future
Recent times have seen some momentum towards dialogue, with talks facilitated by the U.S., European Union, and Russia. However, sporadic border skirmishes serve as stark reminders of the fragility of these negotiations. Unresolved issues related to territorial demarcation and secure transport routes remain formidable obstacles to achieving a lasting peace. Given the tenuous security situation and the high stakes involved, particularly concerning energy supplies, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict looms as a persistent threat, not only to Armenia and Azerbaijan but also to the broader geopolitics of the region.
Conclusive Words
The Nagorno-Karabakh issue is a multifaceted puzzle entangled in a web of historical conflicts, geopolitical interests, and evolving identities. Achieving lasting peace requires courageous steps to address these challenges head-on, recognizing that the stakes extend beyond the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, impacting the broader geopolitics of the region. While the conflict persists without a resolution in sight, the imperative for revitalized diplomatic endeavors and global collaboration remains of utmost importance. The repercussions of inaction extend far beyond the confines of the South Caucasus and resonate across the global stage.
