Welcome to The Pacific Report. Today, we delve into a recent escalation of tensions in the South China Sea. On June 20, 2024, the Philippines accused China’s Coast Guard of launching a brutal assault with bladed weapons, marking a significant shift in the dynamics of the ongoing dispute. This incident has the potential to draw the United States into another global conflict.
The Incident
The confrontation occurred near the Second Thomas Shoal in the contested Spratly Islands during a Philippine mission to resupply its soldiers stationed on a beached World War II-era warship that asserts Manila’s territorial claims over the atoll. Footage released by the Philippine military shows Chinese coast guard officers brandishing an axe and other bladed or pointed tools at Filipino soldiers and slashing their rubber boat. Manila has labeled this as a brazen act of aggression.
This incident has raised alarm bells in the international community, as it marks a departure from the previously observed tactics employed by China in the disputed waters. The use of bladed weapons and the aggressive boarding of another country’s naval vessel are actions that have not been seen in this conflict until now.
China’s Official Stance
China’s official statements regarding the incident in the South China Sea have been defensive. At a regular briefing with reporters, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lin Jian did not directly address the allegations from the Philippines about their vessels being damaged by Chinese coast guard personnel wielding blades and firing tear gas. Instead, Lin Jian reasserted Beijing’s claims over the Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ren’ai Jiao in China. He stated, “The Philippine operation was not for humanitarian supplies at all. The Philippine vessels carried not only construction materials but also smuggled weapons. They also intentionally rammed into Chinese vessels and splashed water and threw things on Chinese law-enforcement personnel. These actions have obviously aggravated tensions at sea and seriously threatened the safety of Chinese personnel and ships.”
Furthermore, China’s Coast Guard disputed the Philippine military’s account of the incident, stating that Manila’s vessel deliberately and dangerously approached a Chinese ship in an unprofessional manner, forcing it to take control measures, including “boarding inspections and forced evictions.”
These statements reflect China’s stance on the incident and its broader claims in the South China Sea. However, they also highlight the stark contrast between the narratives of the two countries involved in the dispute, further complicating the situation.
Increasing Confrontations in the Resource-Rich Waterway
This incident is the latest in a series of increasingly fraught confrontations in the resource-rich and strategically important waterway. However, the scenes captured in the latest footage mark an inflection point in the long-simmering tensions. China appears to be adopting new, far more openly aggressive tactics that seem calculated to test how the Philippines and its key defense ally, the United States, will respond.
China claims indisputable sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, including most of the islands and sandbars within it, even those hundreds of miles from mainland China. Multiple governments, including Manila, hold competing claims. This incident is unprecedented as it involves China’s maritime law enforcement boarding a Philippine naval vessel. According to international law, these vessels enjoy what is termed sovereign immunity. This act could even be construed as an act of war.
At a news conference, senior Philippine military officials stated that China’s Coast Guard officers illegally boarded the Philippine rubber boats, looted seven disassembled rifles stored in gun cases, destroyed outboard motor, communication and navigation equipment, and took the personal cellphones of Filipino personnel. They deliberately punctured the rubber boats using knives and other pointed tools. This act of aggression has been likened to piracy, with only pirates known to board, steal, and destroy ships, equipment, and belongings.
Implications for the United States
The implications of these actions in the South China Sea are profound for the U.S., which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines dating back decades. The latest clash marks the first run-in between the two countries since a new law in China took effect authorizing its coast guard to seize foreign ships and detain crews suspected of trespassing for up to 60 days without trial.
The Philippines has sought closer ties with the U.S., which has repeatedly stressed Washington’s ironclad commitment to a 1951 mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and the Philippines. This treaty stipulates that both sides would help defend each other if either were attacked by a third party. The United States stands with its ally the Philippines and condemns the escalatory and irresponsible actions by China.
In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines’ claims in a landmark maritime dispute, concluding that China has no legal basis to assert historic rights to the bulk of the South China Sea. However, Beijing has ignored the ruling and has increasingly pushed its maritime territorial claims.
The decision by China’s Coast Guard to use bladed weapons in the latest South China Sea clash has drawn comparisons with clashes between China and India on their disputed Himalayan border. The Philippine personnel on the rubber boats are elite forces hailing from the Navy Special Operations Group. They did not retaliate against the Chinese because they are exercising restraint, likely under direct instructions to avoid escalating the situation.
China appears to be testing both Manila and Washington to find out exactly where the red line is. They wanted to see how far the U.S. is willing to pledge its security commitment to the Filipinos. And of course, Beijing is not naive enough not to have considered the possibility of having all these actions escalate the situation, but it seems that was a risk that they, in the end, decided to take.
International Reactions and Expert Analysis
Now, let’s delve into the international reactions and expert analysis on this incident. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a call with Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo to discuss China’s actions in the South China Sea. Blinken emphasized that China’s actions “undermine regional peace and stability” and underscored the United States’ ironclad commitments to the Philippines under their Mutual Defense Treaty.
Dr. Hasim Turker, a geopolitical expert, describes the South China Sea as a nexus of geopolitical intricacy and intensified rivalry. He emphasizes the strategic importance of the region, acting as an essential conduit that accommodates over one-third of global maritime traffic.
The United States and Vietnam warned against the “threat or use of force” in the disputed South China Sea. U.S. President Joe Biden and Vietnam’s Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong said the competing claims on the strategic waterway must be settled under international norms.
ASEAN leaders urged for disputes to be resolved through dialogue rather than threats. This call came a day after the clash between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea.
Hugh White, a political pundit, opines that the chances of a U.S.-China war starting around Second Thomas Shoal are now perhaps as high as the chances of one starting in the Taiwan Strait. He notes that in recent months, in response to escalating Chinese actions, the U.S. and its allies have been drawn deeper into the contest in support of the Philippines.
Conclusion
This incident serves as a stark reminder of the volatile nature of geopolitical conflicts and the delicate balance of power that exists in the South China Sea. As tensions continue to rise, the international community will be watching closely to see how this situation unfolds and what implications it may have for the future of this strategically important waterway. It’s clear that the actions of China and the responses of the international community, particularly the United States, will play a crucial role in determining the future stability of the region.
In conclusion, the South China Sea dispute is a complex issue with far-reaching implications. The recent clash between the Philippines and China marks a significant escalation in the conflict, and the international community’s response will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of this dispute. As we continue to monitor the situation, stay tuned to The Pacific Report for more updates and in-depth analysis on the developments in the Asia-Pacific region.
