On April 11, 2024, the United States made a calculated move that likely unsettled Beijing. The US deployed a potent land-attack missile system, the Mid-Range Capability (MRC) launcher, to the Philippines. This is the first potential deployment of missiles with such a range since the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019. While framed as a military exercise, this move carries deep strategic implications as tensions in the South China Sea continue to simmer.
Understanding the Weapons
MRC
The MRC system, with its ability to strike targets up to 1,600 kilometers away, puts vital Chinese installations within range.
Typhon System
Flexible and potent, the Typhon can be armed with anti-ship SM-6 missiles or land-attack Tomahawks, making it a major threat to China’s naval and land-based assets in the region1.
The South China Sea: A Contested Flashpoint
China’s increasingly assertive behavior in the South China Sea, including the building of artificial islands and militarization, has long alarmed its neighbors and the U.S. The deployment of US missiles comes amid repeated incidents between Chinese vessels and those of the Philippines and other regional nations.
Strategic Implications
Shifting Balance
This deployment marks a significant change in the Indo-Pacific’s power balance. By positioning offensive capabilities close to China’s doorstep, the US seeks to deter aggression and reassure allies like the Philippines.
Calculated Risk
While a bold move, it’s not without risks. China may perceive this as a major escalation, potentially leading to heightened tensions and even retaliatory actions.
China’s Response and Regional Concerns
China’s condemnation of the deployment on April 19, 2024, labeling it a destabilizing act, reflects Beijing’s displeasure and concerns about its ability to project power unchallenged. Regional states like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, all with claims in the South China Sea, will be watching closely.
Analyst’s Perspective: Deterrence vs. Provocation
Expert opinions are indeed divided on the deployment of the US Mid-Range Capability (MRC) launcher to the Philippines. The crux of the debate lies in the dichotomy of deterrence versus provocation.
Deterrence
Some analysts see this move as a necessary step to counterbalance Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea. They argue that the deployment of the MRC system enhances the deterrence capabilities of the US and its allies in the region. As Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, puts it, “Chinese missiles would threaten the US [naval] bases in the western Pacific. The United States needs a similar capability so it can strike Chinese bases without risking ships or aircraft.”
Provocation
On the other hand, some experts warn that this move could fuel a dangerous arms race in the region. They argue that the deployment of such a potent missile system could be perceived as a major escalation by China, potentially leading to heightened tensions and even retaliatory actions. Joseph Matthews, a senior professor at the BELTEI International University in Phnom Penh, warned that “allowing the US army to deploy missiles in the Philippines posed a serious threat and danger to the peace and stability in the region. It would not help resolve any regional dispute, but exacerbate the lingering tensions in the South China Sea.”
Balancing Act
The deployment of the MRC system in the Philippines represents a delicate balancing act between deterrence and provocation. While it aims to counterbalance Chinese assertiveness in the region, it also runs the risk of escalating tensions and potentially sparking an arms race. As Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, puts it, “Allies may be open to rotational deployments in crises, but this is very much dependent on future political dynamics.”
Economic Ripples
China has a history of using economic levers as a form of retaliation in response to geopolitical tensions. In the past, China has imposed bans on agricultural products, particularly bananas, from the Philippines. This had significant implications for the Philippine economy, given that China is one of its largest trading partners.
In addition to trade restrictions, China has also discouraged its citizens from visiting the Philippines citing “security concerns”. This has potential implications for the tourism industry in the Philippines, which relies heavily on Chinese tourists.
The deployment of the US missile system could potentially trigger similar economic retaliations from China. While the immediate impact might be mitigated by the temporary nature of the deployment, the long-term economic implications could be significant. The uncertainty surrounding China’s potential response adds another layer of complexity to the already tense geopolitical situation.
Conclusion
The US missile deployment in the Philippines is a high-stakes gamble. It signals resolve but risks ratcheting up tensions. The long-term consequences are yet unknown— will it lead to greater stability or set the stage for more dangerous confrontations in a hotly contested region?
As Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, puts it, “Allies may be open to rotational deployments in crises, but this is very much dependent on future political dynamics.”
