Geo-Strategy

Is it Possible for ASEAN Countries to form a NATO-Style Collective Security Alliance

Imagine a situation in which Chinese merchant fleet, its navy and Chinese Coast Guard present in some form, from the coast of Africa, all the way around to the Korean Peninsula, covering vast oceans, thus protecting Chinese economic interests and the maritime system in which those interests operate. Likewise, imagine India, South Korea, and Japan all adding submarines and other warships to patrol this Afro-Indo-Pacific region. Finally, imagine the United States, a hegemon, still maintaining the world’s largest navy and coast guard, but with a smaller difference between it and other world class navies, also adding its fleet in this calculus. This is the situation we are heading towards particularly in the South East Asia. If we add an aggressive posture in this picture by any of these states, the situation becomes fully rife for a full blown conflict. In the wake of such a scenario, the concept of collective security can obviously give a sigh of relief in any tense environment. The presence of a dynamic regional form like ASEAN, can provide an opportunity to materialize this dream of collective security for the whole region. Let us explore this idea of collective security under the umbrella of ASEAN, and also explore the idea in the context of success model of NATO for European Collective security regime.

ASEAN: An Overview

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises of ten member states with diverse backgrounds and with a population of 662 million. From its origin in 1967 to its present economic prominence with a collective GDP of more than $3.2 trillion, ASEAN has proved itself as a successful model of regional cooperation. ASEAN has grown into a substantial economic and political force, significantly influencing regional geopolitics. The organization’s economic significance, underscored by initiatives like the ASEAN Economic Community, and its diplomatic achievements, provide a foundation for brainstorming the idea of a security or defense pact among its member states. As the region faces new challenges and opportunities, addressing diverse security priorities, historical complexities, and external pressures will be crucial for the path forward for this organization.

NATO’s Context in ASEAN’s Security Perspective

Sir Winston Churchill, believed that the World War I in Europe was caused in large part by the divided state of Europe. He discussed the concept of a collective security alliance in the 1930s, when he published an article, “The United States of Europe” particularly in the wake of Germany’s growing militarization and expansionist ambitions. In a 1936 speech, Churchill spoke of the need for “A Grand Alliance” of democratic nations to counter the threats posed by Nazi Germany. In 1946, Churchill carried this idea to Zurich through his speech, the first step in his plan called for a Council of Europe, which would not interfere with national sovereignty of nations; but, act as a forum to help kick start the process of deepening ties between the European nations.

The established order of NATO in 1949, marked a good sized moment in history, representing the USA’ first engagement in a peacetime navy alliance beyond the Western Hemisphere. Following the devastation of World War II, European nations, grappling with monetary and security issues, sought assistance from the United States to rebuild their economies and guard towards capacity threats, mainly from a resurgent Germany or the Soviet Union. The Marshall Plan, initiated with the aid of Secretary of State George Marshall, played a pivotal role in fostering European financial integration and strengthening shared pursuits between the USA and Europe. This historical backdrop holds relevance as ASEAN contemplates a prospective collective security pact, drawing parallels between the economic collaboration and security assurances needed in Southeast Asia.

In the face of evolving geopolitical landscapes, NATO’s response to Russia’s aggression, particularly in Ukraine, underscores the alliance’s renewed sense of purpose. The conflict prompted increased collaboration with Ukraine, with NATO member countries providing substantial military support. Simultaneously, Finland and Sweden sought NATO membership, highlighting the alliance’s expanding influence. For ASEAN, observing NATO’s response to current challenges provides valuable insights into navigating regional complexities and maintaining a commitment to collective defense in the face of external threats.

Exploring possibilities of an ASEAN Defense Pact on the footsteps of NATO

In the period between 1948 and 1955, responding to escalating security concerns, Western European international locations signed the Brussels Treaty in 1948, setting the level for a collective protection approach. Concurrently, the Truman Administration, with guide from the Republican Congress, explored the concept of a European-American alliance. The ensuing North Atlantic Treaty in 1949 blanketed the United States, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and the UK. The outbreak of the Korean War multiplied NATO’s integration, leading to the admission of Greece and Turkey in 1952 and West Germany in 1955. These historical negotiations and expansions provide insights for ASEAN as it considers a collective security pact, reflecting on the importance of clear terms and addressing constitutional concerns.

NATO’s enduring legacy is rooted in its collective defense arrangement, emphasizing that an attack against one member is considered an attack against all, positioning Western Europe under the American “nuclear umbrella.” The doctrine of “massive retaliation” emerged, signifying a commitment to respond with large-scale nuclear attacks in the event of aggression. Beyond the Cold War, NATO has persisted, expanding its membership to include former Soviet states. This enduring alliance, built on principles of collective security and deterrence, stands as the world’s largest peacetime military coalition, illustrating its significance in shaping global geopolitics. ASEAN, contemplating a collective security pact, can draw lessons from NATO’s legacy in fostering unity and deterrence against external threats.

A Review of Past Efforts within ASEAN and Lessons from evolving history of the Region

In South East Asian region, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) emerged in 1954 through collaboration among the United States, France, Great Britain, New Zealand, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Pakistan. Despite its title, SEATO primarily included nations outside Southeast Asia, with only the Philippines and Thailand as regional members. Established during the Cold War to counteract the spread of communism, SEATO faced varied responses from Southeast Asian nations, with the Philippines and Thailand joining due to concerns over domestic communist threats. However, linguistic and cultural differences among member states, coupled with SEATO’s limited collective action capabilities, contributed to its dissolution in 1977.

Another notable initiative was the Five Power Defense Arrangements (FPDA) which came into being in 1971 as a security arrangement involving Australia, New Zealand, Britain, Malaysia and Singapore. It was intended to deter external aggression. Although, the FPDA is a significant security arrangement in Southeast Asia, as it has helped to maintain regional stability and has been used to conduct joint military exercises and trainings.

Likewise, The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), signed in 1976 by the founding members of ASEAN, is a legally binding code for inter-state relations in the region and beyond. It is based on the principles of non-interference, peaceful settlement of disputes, and renunciation of the threat or use of force. The TAC has been a cornerstone of ASEAN’s peace and security architecture for over 40 years. It has helped to promote regional stability and cooperation, and it has been used to resolve a number of disputes between ASEAN member states. In 1987, the TAC was amended to allow for accession by states outside Southeast Asia. As of 2023, there are 54 High Contracting Parties to the TAC, including all 10 ASEAN member states, China, Japan, Russia, India, the United States, and the European Union.

Similarly, in 1995, ASEAN leaders took a broader approach by adopting the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), a security dialogue that extended beyond ASEAN member states to include influential nations like China, Japan, and the United States. While the ARF successfully facilitated regional dialogue and cooperation, it encountered difficulties in developing a cohesive security policy due to diverse interests among participating nations.

A more recent effort was the adoption of the ASEAN Security Community (ASC) Blueprint in 2010, outlining a vision for a secure and prosperous Southeast Asia. The ASC Blueprint envisioned the development of a shared security identity, strengthened defense capabilities, and enhanced regional cooperation on security matters. However, progress toward implementing the blueprint has been slow, reflecting the complexities of aligning diverse national interests of nations.

Current Regional Security Landscape

Admiral Michael Mullen, stated in 2006, “The old maritime strategy focused on sea control, the new one must recognize that the economic tide of all the nations rises not when the seas are controlled by one nation, but rather made safe and free for all.” Southeast Asian nations are actively enhancing defense partnerships amid ongoing military modernization plans, navigating a delicate balance in the increasingly polarized regional landscape dominated by the strategic rivalry between China and the United States. As a critical theater in the growing competition between these major powers, Southeast Asia, comprising the ten ASEAN member states (soon to be eleven with Timor-Leste’s admission), is reluctant to align decisively with either side. Despite close monetary ties with Beijing, nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are concurrently cultivating stronger defense family members with the U.S. And its allies. This local navy modernization, totaling $60.Nine billion from 2013 to 2022, is regularly regarded as a way of balancing against China, yet no us of a has fundamentally reshaped its military to discourage a conflict with China. The Southeast Asian states, regularly in search of a middle ground among the U.S. And China, will probably voice issues about geopolitical competition, aiming for speak and collaboration on shared demanding situations such as monetary integration, climate change, and the strength transition.

Discussing Obstacles and Roadblocks in Creation of a Security Pact

In the context of discussing boundaries and roadblocks within the creation of a safety or defense p.C. For ASEAN, the current joint navy drills, named the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise (ASEX 23), marks a big but careful step toward navy cooperation within the local grouping. The workout, centered on humanitarian comfort efforts, came about in opposition to the backdrop of escalating tensions inside the South China Sea. Despite the nice development, demanding situations lie in the various army abilties and political orientations of ASEAN member states. The geopolitical weather, characterised via the competition among the USA and China, similarly complicates efforts to form a unified protection percent. The exercises were framed by Indonesia as a demonstration of ASEAN centrality, highlighting concerns about being forced to choose sides amid great power competition. Additionally, the evolving nature of alliances, such as AUKUS and the Quad, poses challenges to ASEAN’s relevance and unity. The region’s vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change underscores the importance of cooperation, but geopolitical dynamics present hurdles in establishing a cohesive security framework. The varying levels of participation in the drills and differences in military strategies among member states also raise questions about the potential operational effectiveness of an ASEAN-wide security pact. Despite these obstacles, the joint exercises serve as a foundation for future collaboration, emphasizing the need for a gradual and pragmatic approach in navigating security challenges within the ASEAN region.

Potential Benefits of a NATO Styled ASEAN Security Arrangement

Collective Defense and Regional Stability

A NATO-styled ASEAN Security Pact holds the promise of ensuring collective defense against external threats, fostering a sense of security and stability within the region, such a pact could serve as a bulwark against potential aggressors, providing member states with the assurance of mutual support.

Enhanced Military Cooperation and Deterrence

An ASEAN Security Pact would enhance military cooperation, facilitate joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordinated responses to any security crises. Similar to NATO’s historical role in deterrence during the Cold War, the pact could act as a deterrent against potential adversaries.

Addressing Contemporary Security Challenges

A security pact would empower ASEAN to collectively address security challenges by providing a framework for intelligence-sharing and collaborative efforts, the pact could enhance the region’s ability to counter emerging security risks.

Balancing External Influences and Regional Autonomy

Amid the ongoing strategic rivalry between major powers, particularly the United States and China, an ASEAN Security Pact becomes crucial for maintaining a balanced approach and preserving regional autonomy.

End Note

In reflection, ASEAN’s journey from its historical origins to its current status represents a nuanced evolution in response to shifting global dynamics. Insights from NATO’s context and lessons from ASEAN’s past initiatives, coupled with an understanding of the region’s current security landscape, highlight the balance that Southeast Asian nations maintain despite major power rivalry. While obstacles persist, the potential benefits of a NATO-styled ASEAN Security Pact, encompassing collective defense, enhanced military cooperation, addressing modern security challenges, and preserving regional autonomy, offers a compelling vision to foster a resilient security architecture in the wake of upcoming challenges.

Analysis

How The Philippines’ NEW STANDARD MAP Counter China’s 10-Dash Line Claim?

Recently, the Philippines has taken a decisive step to assert its territorial rights in the South China Sea by preparing to release an updated map that reflects its maritime entitlements in line with the 2016 arbitral ruling and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This new map is a clear response to China’s controversial “10-dash line” map, which claims nearly the entire South China Sea. The updated map will delineate areas such as the Kalayaan Island Group, Scarborough Shoal, Macclesfield Bank, and the Benham Rise—territories that the Philippines has long claimed as its own. Furthermore, the map will define the West Philippine Sea as the country’s 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), separating it from the broader South China Sea, and thereby strengthening the Philippines’ sovereignty over these regions.

This move was prompted by the release of China’s updated “10-dash line” map in 2023, which extended China’s territorial claims even further, overlapping with the EEZs of several Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines. The Philippine government responded swiftly, formally rejecting this new map, which contradicts the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling that invalidated China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea. The tribunal had affirmed that certain features in the Spratly Islands fall within the Philippine EEZ. Despite this legal victory, China continues its claims in defiance of international law, leading the Philippines to take a firm stance in defense of its sovereignty. The creation of the updated map is part of a broader diplomatic effort to assert the Philippines’ rights, and it will undergo rigorous vetting to ensure it aligns with international law and the arbitral ruling.

An intriguing aspect of the updated map is the inclusion of Sabah, a territory currently under Malaysia’s control but historically linked to the Philippines through the Sultanate of Sulu. This issue dates back to the 15th century when the Sultanate of Sulu came into possession of the region after assisting Brunei in a civil conflict. In 1878, the Sultan of Sulu leased Sabah to the British North Borneo Chartered Company, a lease that the Philippines argues never amounted to a transfer of sovereignty. After the formation of Malaysia in 1963, which included Sabah, the Philippines formally asserted its claim. Although Malaysia considers the issue settled, interpreting the 1878 agreement as a cession, the Philippines continues to lay claim to the region, albeit without actively pursuing it in recent years.

The maritime confrontation in the South China sea is part of a broader pattern of ongoing tension between China and the Philippines over sovereignty in the South China Sea. Scarborough Shoal has long been a flashpoint, and despite the 2016 arbitral ruling, China has maintained a heavy presence in the area, effectively blocking Philippine vessels from accessing this traditional fishing ground. The Philippines has responded by asserting its territorial claims more forcefully, and in recent months, it has enacted two significant pieces of maritime legislation—the Maritime Zones Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act—aimed at further strengthening its territorial integrity. In response, China has issued threats of “necessary measures” to protect its sovereignty.

The South China Sea dispute remains a complex and multifaceted issue, involving overlapping claims from multiple nations, including China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The region is of immense strategic importance, with vital trade routes that handle over $3 trillion in annual commerce. The United States, a longstanding ally of the Philippines, has warned China against aggressive actions, reaffirming its commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. Meanwhile, ASEAN nations find themselves caught between maintaining ties with China, an economic powerhouse, and upholding international law in the face of Beijing’s expanding maritime claims. As tensions escalate, the risk of miscalculation grows, and the future of peace and stability in the region remains uncertain. The Philippines, undeterred, is resolutely moving forward in asserting its sovereignty, with its own new map and standing firm in its diplomatic protests against China’s actions.

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Historical Philippine Maps

The 1734 Velarde map, one of the earliest representations of the Philippines, offers significant historical insights into the territorial boundaries during the Spanish Empire. This map is a valuable artifact that reveals the territorial scope claimed by the Spanish colonial authorities, providing a snapshot of the Philippines during that period. The map is particularly noteworthy for its depiction of the islands, which showcases the colonial boundaries in a way that highlights the era’s geopolitical landscape. In 2024, the National Historical Commission of the Philippines (NHCP) initiated the “Landas ng Pagkabansa” (Path of Nationhood) project to honor the nation’s history. As part of this initiative, NHCP will install 43 new historical markers across Luzon, intended to commemorate key events and milestones in the journey to Philippine independence. This project is part of the broader 125th Anniversary of Philippine Independence, celebrated from 2023 to 2026.

The “Landas ng Pagkabansa” project is a pivotal effort to highlight the heroism and sacrifices of Filipinos in the fight for independence, tracing the history from the 1898 declaration of independence in Kawit, Cavite, to the end of the First Philippine Republic in 1901 in Palanan, Isabela. The 43 markers will be installed in key provinces such as Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Mountain Province, and Ifugao. These markers are not only educational but also serve as reminders of the heroism and sacrifices of local communities and individuals who contributed to the independence movement. Dr. Emmanuel Calairo, NHCP chairperson, emphasized that these markers aim to remind Filipinos of the historical events that shaped their nation and the enduring spirit of their ancestors.

In parallel to this commemoration, the Philippine government is set to release a new map that will reflect the country’s territorial claims, including the West Philippine Sea and Benham Rise, which is now referred to as “Talampas ng Pilipinas.” This updated map, developed by the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), will incorporate the maritime zones and features recognized under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), along with the 2016 arbitral award. According to NAMRIA Director Peter Tiangco, this map will clearly delineate areas where the Philippines has sovereignty and sovereign rights, providing legal clarity and standing up to international scrutiny. The map will also include the exact coordinates of key maritime features and will be published once the rules for the Philippine Maritime Zones Act are finalized.

The release of this updated map coincides with the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, particularly in the West Philippine Sea, where the Philippines has faced increasing aggression from China. The Philippine government has filed multiple diplomatic protests against China’s actions, including the incidents of Chinese vessels firing of water cannons at Philippine vessels. As of December 2024, the Philippine government has filed 60 protests against China’s aggressive maritime actions this year alone, bringing the total to 193 protests since the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. These protests highlight the Philippines’ strong opposition to China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, which are largely based on the controversial “New ten-dash line.”

The diplomatic disputes with China have intensified, with China defending its actions as necessary to protect its perceived territorial rights, particularly in the disputed areas such as Scarborough Shoal. In response, the Philippine government has repeatedly condemned these actions, emphasizing that they are illegal under international law, particularly the 1982 UNCLOS. Despite these tensions, the Philippines remains resolute in defending its sovereignty and maritime rights, using both diplomatic channels and legal instruments to assert its position in the ongoing territorial dispute.

Updated Philippine Map to Counter China’s Claims

In 2024, the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) announced plans to release a new and updated official map of the Philippines. This initiative aligns with the 2016 arbitral ruling and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), aiming to assert the Philippines’ maritime entitlements and counter China’s controversial “10-dash line” claim. The updated map will reflect the provisions of the newly enacted Philippine Maritime Zones Act, which clearly defines the country’s maritime zones, including the West Philippine Sea. NAMRIA Administrator Undersecretary Peter Tiangco emphasized that this new map will align with international standards and Philippine constitutional mandates, marking a significant step forward in the nation’s defense of its sovereignty.

The updated map will accurately delineate the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and continental shelf, ensuring compliance with UNCLOS and highlighting maritime boundaries with precision. This delineation is crucial for promoting environmental protection by identifying and preserving marine ecosystems and biodiversity. Additionally, the map will enhance navigation safety for both commercial and military vessels in the South China Sea by providing clear and reliable maritime charts. Administrator Tiangco noted that the previous map was based on historical agreements like the Treaty of Paris, but the new version reflects modern legal frameworks, particularly UNCLOS and national legislation.

Strategically, the updated map serves as a powerful diplomatic tool to counter China’s expansive claims over the South China Sea, now outlined in its “10-dash line” map. These claims overlap with the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations, which have led to tensions in the region. By asserting its maritime rights through an internationally compliant map, the Philippines seeks to strengthen its position in upholding the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s excessive territorial claims. Furthermore, the updated map reaffirms the Philippines’ sovereignty over the West Philippine Sea and provides a legal basis for protecting its maritime resources and enforcing territorial boundaries.

The release of the updated map is expected to garner significant international support, reinforcing the Philippines’ stance in global forums and promoting a rules-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific region. NAMRIA is currently in the final stages of the vetting process, involving consultations with various government agencies to ensure accuracy and consistency with existing laws. While awaiting the Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Maritime Zones Act, NAMRIA has prepared the delineation of maritime zones and archipelagic sea lanes in compliance with constitutional and international provisions.

Legal Basis and Regional Implications

The National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) announced the forthcoming release of an updated Philippine map that aligns with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the newly enacted Philippine Maritime Zones Act (Republic Act No. 12064). Signed into law by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., this act defines the geographical extent of the country’s maritime zones, including its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and continental shelf. The new map aims to reinforce the Philippines’ sovereign rights, particularly in disputed areas such as the Kalayaan Island Group, Scarborough Shoal, and the West Philippine Sea, while promoting compliance with international maritime standards.

The updated map is part of a broader strategy to counter China’s contentious “10-dash line” claim, which extends its territorial assertions over most of the South China Sea, overlapping with the EEZs of the Philippines and other neighboring nations. NAMRIA Administrator Peter Tiangco highlighted the “big difference” between the Philippine map, which is rooted in legal frameworks such as UNCLOS, and China’s maps, which lack international legal support. This updated map, once published, will pinpoint the Philippines’ lawful claims and strengthen its position in international discussions regarding maritime disputes.

A key focus of the new map is the promotion of sustainable maritime practices. It highlights areas of environmental importance, reaffirming the Philippines’ commitment to marine biodiversity conservation and the responsible use of marine resources. Additionally, the map provides a clear delineation of maritime boundaries, which is critical for ensuring navigation safety for commercial and military vessels operating in the South China Sea. By establishing precise territorial markers, the map enhances maritime security and supports safe passage for international shipping lanes.

Complementing this initiative, President Marcos also signed the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act (Republic Act No. 12065), which outlines designated routes for foreign vessels and aircraft passing through Philippine waters, in accordance with UNCLOS and the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation. Together, these legislative measures support the Philippines’ sovereignty, protect its maritime domain, and establish a rules-based framework for managing its territorial waters.

Significance of the Map

The release of the new Philippine map will mark a historic moment, being the first update since the landmark 2016 arbitral ruling by The Hague, which invalidated China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea. The map will highlight the Philippines’ sovereign rights and maritime entitlements recognized under international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Anchored in the Philippine Maritime Zones Act, this legal framework clarifies the country’s maritime domain and provides a basis for asserting its rights in contested waters. Unlike China’s recently revised 10-dash line map, the Philippines’ updated map stands firmly on legal grounds, reinforcing its territorial and maritime claims through globally recognized norms.

A key feature of the updated map is the incorporation of the Philippine Rise (formerly Benham Rise), a 13-million-hectare undersea plateau located 250 kilometers east of northern Luzon. Approved by the United Nations in 2012 as part of the Philippines’ extended continental shelf, the Philippine Rise is rich in marine biodiversity, including coral reefs, algae, and sponges that sustain various fish species. Its potential goes beyond ecology, with vast deposits of methane hydrates and other valuable seabed resources such as cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts. These minerals hold promise for the aerospace industry and global energy needs, further emphasizing the region’s strategic and economic significance.

The Philippine government has undertaken extensive scientific initiatives in the Philippine Rise, highlighted by marine expeditions like the 2017 Coordinated National Marine Scientific Research Initiatives and Related Activities (CONMIRA). Research efforts have uncovered its role as the country’s most productive tuna fishing ground and explored opportunities for renewable energy and marine biotechnology. Oceanographers are also studying currents and physical processes to better understand typhoon patterns, benefiting not just the Philippines but the entire region. Amidst maritime disputes in the West Philippine Sea, the Philippine Rise offers a secure area for continued research, illustrating the balance between scientific pursuits and national sovereignty.

The new map also integrates the West Philippine Sea, reflecting the Philippines’ ongoing efforts to counter China’s aggressive actions and reinforce its sovereign rights. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration has prioritized these updates as part of broader maritime legislation, including the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act. This law establishes regulated routes for foreign military and civilian vessels, ensuring compliance with UNCLOS and the Chicago Convention. By updating its map and implementing robust legal measures, the Philippines not only asserts its territorial integrity but also enhances regional stability in the face of growing tensions in the South China Sea.

Why BRP Sierra Madre is important for the Philippines?

Regional Tensions Over China’s New Map

In 2024, tensions surrounding China’s updated 10-dash line map remain high, with strong protests from India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan. Released in August 2023, the map asserts expansive territorial claims, including disputed areas in the South China Sea and the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, as well as the Aksai Chin plateau. India, which considers Arunachal Pradesh its territory, was the first to issue a formal protest, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar denouncing China’s claims as “absurd.” Other nations have followed suit, rejecting the map’s validity under international law. The Philippines has declared the map “illegal” and cited a 2016 Hague tribunal ruling that invalidated China’s claims. Vietnam and Malaysia have issued similar statements, emphasizing violations of their sovereignty and exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Taiwan, claimed by China as a province, has also reiterated its independent status.

China’s map introduces a tenth dash east of Taiwan, intensifying regional disputes. It reaffirms its territorial claims over nearly all of the South China Sea, encroaching on areas claimed by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The map has also raised concerns about China’s intentions regarding Taiwan. The dispute further extends to historical contentions, such as the inclusion of Russia’s Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island, despite a 2008 treaty resolving the matter. Analysts view this move as China’s attempt to assert dominance and revive irredentist territorial ambitions.

Military maneuvers and diplomatic posturing have escalated as nations push back against China’s assertions. China’s Coast Guard has intensified patrols in contested waters, leading to confrontations with Philippine vessels and sparking fears of potential conflict. In response, countries like Malaysia and Vietnam have sought clarity and pressed for adherence to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). These actions are compounded by the involvement of external powers like the United States, which has criticized China’s claims and pledged support for its regional allies. The Philippines and Vietnam have emphasized the importance of UNCLOS as the basis for resolving disputes and rejected China’s narrative of historical sovereignty.

Critics argue that the map’s timing reflects a calculated move by China to stir debate, ensuring its claims dominate diplomatic discussions. Analysts like James Chin of the University of Tasmania suggest that Beijing’s intent is to maintain its territorial claims at the forefront of regional politics while signaling defiance of the 2016 Hague ruling. This strategy reinforces China’s nationalist rhetoric under President Xi Jinping and highlights its willingness to assert dominance despite international criticism. However, countries like India and the Philippines have countered with public rallies, cultural events, and strong diplomatic protests, while others, such as Vietnam, prefer quieter opposition through Communist Party channels.

Despite widespread criticism, China remains resolute in enforcing its territorial claims. Beijing defends the map as a routine administrative publication, urging other nations to view it “objectively.” However, experts warn that the map risks escalating regional tensions, particularly in the South China Sea, a vital trade route with an estimated $5 trillion in annual trade passing through it. Analysts foresee heightened military encounters and closer interactions between China and U.S.-allied forces operating in the region. While countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines continue to voice opposition, their ability to compel China to alter its stance remains limited. The 10-dash line thus symbolizes China’s broader strategy of territorial assertion and its unyielding approach to regional disputes.

What are the Most Pressing Challenges for the Philippines in 2024?

Analysis

Philippines China Trade Accusations Over New South China Sea Confrontation

Tensions between China and the Philippines flared once again following a maritime confrontation near the contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, further intensifying a long-standing territorial dispute. Both nations offered conflicting accounts of the incident, highlighting the fragile state of relations in one of the world’s most strategic waterways.

The Philippine government accused China of “aggressive actions” after Chinese coast guard vessels reportedly fired water cannons and sideswiped a Philippine fisheries bureau boat that was delivering supplies to Filipino fishermen. Video evidence released by Philippine officials showed a large Chinese vessel approaching the smaller Philippine boat before the collision and the use of water cannons. Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesperson Jay Tarriela labeled the actions as “overkill,” stating that they endangered lives and disrupted legitimate Philippine maritime operations.

The United States condemned China’s actions, with U.S. Ambassador to Manila MaryKay Carlson describing them as “unlawful” and reaffirming the U.S.’s commitment to supporting allies in maintaining a free and open Pacific. The U.S. has increasingly voiced concerns over China’s aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea, with this latest confrontation drawing swift international attention.

China, however, presented a different narrative. According to the Chinese Coast Guard, four Philippine ships “dangerously approached” its vessels, attempting to enter what Beijing considers its territorial waters around Scarborough Shoal, known in China as Huangyan Island. Coast Guard spokesperson Liu Dejun defended the actions of Chinese vessels as necessary to “exercise control” over what he described as provocative and unsafe maneuvers by the Philippine side.

Liu added that one Philippine vessel ignored repeated warnings, further escalating tensions. “We warn the Philippines to immediately stop infringement, provocation, and propaganda; otherwise, it will bear all consequences,” he said in a statement.

The confrontation comes on the heels of a November diplomatic dispute after China unilaterally declared baseline territorial waters around Scarborough Shoal. This week, Beijing submitted nautical charts to the United Nations reinforcing its claims, which the Philippines has rejected as “baseless” and “illegal.” Alexander Lopez, spokesperson for the Philippines’ National Maritime Council, reiterated the country’s sovereign claim to the area, calling China’s actions part of a broader pattern of aggression, coercion, and intimidation.

“The aggressive posture of Chinese vessels highlights a continuing pattern of disregard for Philippine sovereignty and international law,” Lopez stated during a press briefing. He urged China to exercise self-restraint and respect the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated Beijing’s expansive claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Scarborough Shoal has been a flashpoint for years. Although the arbitral tribunal ruled in 2016 that the area is a traditional fishing ground open to multiple nationalities, China has maintained a near-constant presence there, effectively blocking access to Philippine vessels. Tensions escalated further in recent months as Beijing ramped up its activities, including submitting maps that the Philippines insists infringe on its exclusive economic zone.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently signed two new maritime laws aimed at strengthening the country’s territorial integrity. The Maritime Zones Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act define the nation’s maritime zones and sea lanes more clearly, a move Beijing has called a provocation. In response, China summoned the Philippine ambassador to Beijing and warned that it would take “necessary measures” to protect its territorial sovereignty.

U S Funded Port in Batanes The Bold Move to Counter China

China claims nearly the entire South China Sea, a vital maritime route facilitating over $3 trillion in annual trade, with overlapping claims from Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Despite years of negotiations on a code of conduct for the waterway between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), disputes persist, with some ASEAN members insisting the code must adhere to UNCLOS principles.

While Beijing asserts that its baseline submissions to the UN are consistent with international law, the Philippines and other claimants have dismissed them as lacking legal merit. “This is not a legitimate exercise of maritime rights but a blatant attempt to expand control,” Lopez said.

The ongoing dispute raises concerns about broader regional stability. The U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, dating back to 1951, could potentially draw Washington into any armed conflict in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, ASEAN nations continue to navigate a delicate balance between maintaining security ties with the U.S. and avoiding provocation with China, a dominant economic power in the region.

This latest confrontation highlights the growing risk of miscalculation in the South China Sea, where competing claims and aggressive posturing by China have created a volatile environment. As diplomatic efforts struggle to keep pace with the rapid escalation of maritime tensions, the future of peace and stability in the region remains uncertain.

Russian Submarine Enters Philippines Exclusive Economic zone(EEZ)

Analysis

U S Funded Port in Batanes The Bold Move to Counter China

The proposed US-funded port in Batanes, Philippines, mirrors strategic initiatives in other parts of the world, such as the US military presence in the Baltic states near Russia. In Eastern Europe, NATO allies have fortified their positions with bases, infrastructure, and joint exercises in countries like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, citing the need to counter Russian aggression. The United States has committed to support its allies in Asia, particularly in areas close to the South China Sea. Batanes, with its proximity to both Taiwan and contested waters, presents an invaluable strategic position. Recently, the US committed to funding the construction of a port in Batanes, a move that many experts interpret as a direct counter to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. America’s alliance with the Philippines strengthens both democracies, contributing to the security of the region and the stability of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

But why build a port in Batanes? The port could provide logistical support for both military and humanitarian missions, offering the US and the Philippines greater flexibility in this vital area. This isn’t just about military presence; it’s about reinforcing alliances and ensuring stability in a region increasingly pressured by geopolitical tensions. China, however, is less than thrilled about the development. With its territorial claims and military buildup in the South China Sea, China has clear ambitions to assert control over the region. A US-funded port so close to Chinese interests is seen as a direct challenge to these ambitions, with some analysts predicting a potential diplomatic standoff. The port, however, could also serve as a powerful symbol of the US-Philippine partnership, strengthening ties and encouraging other nations to boost their defense initiatives in the face of China’s growing influence.

As construction progresses and tensions continue to rise, all eyes are on Batanes. Will this port spark a new wave of regional partnerships, or will it escalate tensions in the South China Sea? Only time will tell. The US military is reportedly looking to develop a strategically positioned port in the Philippines, offering a foothold near key islands adjacent to Taiwan. Experts caution that such a move is likely to be viewed as a hostile act by Beijing. Ongoing discussions involve building a port in the Philippines, about 125 miles from Taiwan, a territory that Beijing claims as part of its sovereign domain. The Bashi Channel, located between Taiwan and Batanes, is a crucial maritime route linking the Western Pacific to the disputed South China Sea, making it even more significant if tensions rise between China and Taiwan.

Filipino officials have confirmed that American military representatives recently visited Batanes to discuss the proposed port. Governor Marilu Koo of Batanes has also appealed for US funding to construct an auxiliary port to assist cargo vessels seeking shelter during the monsoon season. The US proposal to build a port in the Philippines could be seen as a countermeasure to Beijing’s increasing influence in these contested waters. In recent years, China has heavily militarized several man-made islands in the South China Sea, intensifying the region’s strategic stakes.

Beijing views any US initiative to establish facilities in the Pacific Islands as a potential step toward supporting American intervention in the event of a Chinese military action against Taiwan. According to Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the London School of Oriental and African Studies, Beijing perceives such moves—whether military or civilian—as hostile, as they could assist the US in supporting Taiwan during a conflict. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, echoes this sentiment, warning that the port proposal could complicate China’s strategic calculations. Experts believe China may respond by applying economic pressure on the Philippines.

Tensions in the region have been rising, particularly following a record number of Chinese warships near Taiwan. The US has been strengthening its alliances in Asia, particularly with the Philippines. Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippines has pursued closer ties with the US, granting access to additional military bases and endorsing joint patrols in the South China Sea. This year, the Philippines also hosted large-scale military exercises, involving over 177,000 Filipino and American soldiers.

The proposed port in Batanes is part of Washington’s ongoing strategy to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region. It also reflects the US’s broader goal of opposing China’s aspirations to reunify with Taiwan. This proposed port, alongside other US activities near China, is expected to further erode mutual trust between the two powers. Despite the US’s assurance that it does not seek confrontation, recent actions—including the US-Japan-South Korea summit at Camp David and joint military exercises in the South China Sea—are seen by China as efforts to contain its influence.

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Strategic Location of Batanes

Batanes, the northernmost province of the Philippines, is strategically located in the Indo-Pacific region. It lies closer to Taiwan than to Manila, at about 190 kilometers (120 miles) south of Taiwan. This proximity places Batanes near the Bashi Channel, a vital maritime route that connects the Western Pacific Ocean to the South China Sea. This channel is essential for international trade and naval operations, making the province a significant point of interest for regional security and commerce.

The waters surrounding Batanes add to its strategic value. To the east lies the vast Pacific Ocean, while the South China Sea is to the west. The province is bordered by the Bashi and Balintang Channels to the north and south, respectively. These waterways are not only important for global shipping but also for local livelihoods, as they provide rich fishing grounds. The territorial waters around Batanes are a key source of marine resources, supporting both the local economy and the country’s food security.

Batanes’ strategic position has drawn international attention, particularly from the United States and China. Filipino and American forces have held military exercises in Batanes, signifying its role in regional security. These activities highlight the province’s importance in maintaining stability and fostering cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

US Port Funding

The United States has announced plans to fund and construct a new port in Batanes, the Philippines’ northernmost province. This port will serve dual purposes: supporting military operations and providing humanitarian aid. Given its proximity to Taiwan and its location near the crucial Bashi Channel, this port will enhance the strategic importance of Batanes, allowing for quicker responses to emergencies and improving regional security.

One of the port’s key roles will be to assist in humanitarian efforts. In the event of a conflict or natural disaster, the port will facilitate the rapid evacuation of Filipinos living in Taiwan. Its location near the Bashi Channel, a major maritime route connecting the Western Pacific to the South China Sea, makes it ideally positioned to handle such operations. Additionally, the port will strengthen the Philippines’ ability to respond to disasters in the region, ensuring timely aid and rescue missions.

On the military side, the port will enhance the Philippines’ defense capabilities near Taiwan, an area of growing tension. It will provide strategic support for allied forces, improving the region’s readiness in case of conflict. This initiative aligns with the broader US strategy to reinforce alliances in the Indo-Pacific and counter China’s expanding influence.

China’s Concerns

China views the planned US-funded port in Batanes as a direct challenge to its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and near Taiwan. The port’s location, less than 125 miles from Taiwan and near the contested Bashi Channel, is strategically important. For China, the project signifies an effort by the United States to strengthen its influence in the region and counter China’s claims, particularly the controversial nine-dash line that overlaps with the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of several Southeast Asian nations.

The construction of the port adds to rising tensions in the region, where China has already been increasing its military activities. The port could serve as a staging ground for US forces in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. With record numbers of Chinese warships patrolling near Taiwan and the South China Sea, the new port is seen as intensifying the military competition between the US and China, further straining regional stability.

China has expressed its concerns through diplomatic channels, with its embassy in Manila warning that Taiwan is an internal matter and should not become a point of conflict between China and the Philippines. This highlights the difficult balance the Philippines must maintain as it manages its relationships with both China and the United States.

Philippine Government’s Role

Governor Marilu Koo of Batanes has been a vocal supporter of building a new port in the province. She highlights the importance of this infrastructure in supporting cargo vessels and improving disaster preparedness. With Batanes frequently experiencing natural disasters such as typhoons, a well-equipped port would be vital for the swift delivery of goods, aid, and rescue operations. This advocacy aligns with broader efforts to enhance the region’s resilience and connectivity.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken decisive steps to deepen ties between the Philippines and the United States. His administration has granted the US access to additional military bases, particularly near Taiwan, recognizing the strategic importance of the area. President Marcos has also endorsed joint patrols with the US in the South China Sea, strengthening military cooperation and demonstrating a shared commitment to maintaining regional security. These measures reflect the Philippine government’s proactive approach to addressing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

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Geopolitical Tensions

The rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying as both nations take decisive actions to strengthen their positions in the Indo-Pacific region. The US has been conducting regular military exercises with allies such as the Philippines, Japan, and Australia. These include joint patrols and training operations aimed at enhancing regional security and demonstrating the US commitment to its allies. Additionally, the US has deepened its strategic partnerships through agreements that allow shared access to military bases and coordinated operations, reinforcing its influence in the region.

China views these actions as a direct provocation and a challenge to its territorial claims, particularly in the South China Sea and near Taiwan. In response, Beijing has ramped up military activities, including deploying more warships and aircraft in contested areas. Economically, China has imposed tariffs and trade restrictions, leveraging its economic power to counterbalance the growing US influence.

The escalating competition has severely eroded trust between the two nations, complicating efforts to find diplomatic solutions. Both sides are engaged in a comprehensive struggle for power and influence, involving military, economic, and strategic dimensions. As tensions continue to rise, the prospects for meaningful dialogue remain slim, increasing the risk of miscalculation and conflict in this critical region.

Implications for the Region:

The construction of the US-funded port in Batanes carries significant implications for the region. It is viewed as a symbol of the strengthening partnership between the Philippines and the United States, highlighting their shared commitment to regional stability. The port also serves as a countermeasure to China’s growing militarization of the South China Sea, reinforcing the Philippines’ sovereignty and enhancing its ability to respond to potential security threats. By boosting infrastructure in a strategic location, the project highlights the importance of alliances in addressing the evolving challenges of the Indo-Pacific region.

However, this development is not without risks. Experts caution that it could heighten diplomatic and military tensions in the region. China, which perceives the port as a threat to its strategic ambitions, may respond by exerting economic or strategic pressure on the Philippines. This could include measures such as trade restrictions, investment pullbacks, or increased military presence near Philippine waters. Such actions might strain the Philippines’ delicate balancing act between its longstanding alliance with the US and its economic ties to China.

Taiwan Factor

The US-funded port in Batanes, located less than 124 miles from Taiwan, significantly enhances the strategic depth of US-Philippine relations. Its proximity to Taiwan is particularly important, as it enables rapid evacuation of Filipinos in the event of a conflict or natural disaster. With over 150,000 Filipinos working in Taiwan, having an infrastructure capable of supporting emergency operations is vital. Additionally, the port strengthens the defensive capacity of the Philippines near Taiwan, positioning the country as a key ally in maintaining stability in this highly sensitive region.

However, the port’s strategic importance also brings potential risks. Any conflict over Taiwan could have serious implications for the Philippines due to its geographical proximity. The port’s role as a potential staging ground for US military operations might draw the Philippines into a larger regional conflict.

Recent military exercises further highlight the growing importance of Batanes in regional security. During the Balikatan 2024 exercise, US and Philippine forces deployed troops to Batanes to test their ability to secure the island chain near Taiwan.

Public Opinion and Policy:

Recent public opinion surveys in the United States highlight widespread concern about China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. A poll revealed that approximately 32% of Americans see China as an immediate threat, reflecting fears about its expanding regional ambitions. These concerns are fueled by China’s territorial disputes, its assertiveness in the South China Sea, and its growing economic and military power. The perception of China as a challenge to US interests has shaped much of the public discourse on foreign policy and security in recent years.

The United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s security is rooted in the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), enacted in 1979. This law emphasizes the US’s dedication to maintaining peace and stability in the Western Pacific by ensuring that Taiwan’s future is determined through peaceful means. The Act serves as a cornerstone of US policy in the region, highlighting its role in counterbalancing China’s aggressive territorial claims and military expansion.

Public opinion in the US continues to shape policy, with a significant portion of the population expressing unfavorable views of China. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, 81% of Americans hold a negative view of China, with 43% having a very unfavorable opinion. This sentiment has influenced US policy, with 48% of Americans considering limiting China’s power and influence a top foreign policy priority. The US government has aligned its actions with these public concerns, focusing on strengthening alliances in the region and ensuring stability through strategic initiatives like the Taiwan Relations Act.

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Regional Solidarity

The Philippines has recently taken significant steps to assert its territorial claims and strengthen regional solidarity against China’s expansive territorial ambitions in the South China Sea. On November 8, 2024, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed two important laws—the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act. These laws define the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), ensuring that the Philippines has control over its waters and resources. The Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act also designates specific sea lanes and air routes that must be respected by foreign vessels and aircraft, reinforcing the Philippines’ sovereignty over its maritime territories.

China quickly reacted to the new Philippine legislation, lodging a “stern protest” by summoning the Philippine ambassador in Beijing. Chinese officials condemned the laws, claiming they were an attempt by the Philippines to solidify the “illegal ruling” from the South China Sea arbitration case, which had ruled in favor of the Philippines’ territorial claims.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has also been active in addressing the escalating disputes in the South China Sea. ASEAN defense ministers have called for the establishment of a code of conduct to manage tensions and avoid further confrontations in the region. In recent years, confrontations between Chinese and Philippine naval and coast guard forces have increased significantly, particularly in the disputed waters. These incidents raise concerns that the US, a long-time ally of the Philippines, could be drawn into a larger conflict, especially given its security commitments to the country.

Future Outlook

The construction of the US-funded port in Batanes is a major development that will have a significant impact on regional alliances and tensions in the South China Sea. The port is expected to strengthen the US-Philippine alliance, as it provides a strategic foothold for the US in a region that is increasingly contested due to China’s growing influence. This project is part of a broader strategy by the US to counter China’s assertive actions in the Indo-Pacific. By enhancing the Philippines’ maritime infrastructure, the port not only benefits the country but also serves US interests in maintaining a balance of power in the region.

Confrontations between China and the Philippines have increased over the past year, with incidents ranging from water cannons and boat rammings to physical altercations. These confrontations heighten fears that the situation could spiral into a broader conflict, drawing in other nations, including the US, which has consistently urged China to cease its aggressive actions in the disputed waters.

The development of the port could set a precedent for deeper US involvement in countering China’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific. The port’s strategic location near Taiwan and the South China Sea makes it a critical asset for regional security. The US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) further underscores the importance of this collaboration, as it obligates both nations to assist each other in the event of an armed attack. This treaty solidifies the commitment of the US and the Philippines to maintaining regional stability and security, and the port’s construction is a clear reflection of their growing cooperation to manage the complex geopolitical challenges of the region.