Why the Philippines Matters More Than Ever in the Taiwan Question
For decades, the “Taiwan question” was seen through a familiar triangle: Washington, Tokyo, and Taipei — the principal players in any potential conflict across the Taiwan Strait. But in recent years, a quiet yet profound geopolitical shift has redrawn that map. The Philippines, once a peripheral actor in East Asian security, has emerged as a central pillar in the region’s evolving deterrence strategy — the silent fourth corner in the calculus of great power competition.
The Strategic Geography of the Philippines
No country sits closer to southern Taiwan than the Philippines. Its northernmost islands, like Mavulis and Itbayat, are less than 150 kilometers from Taiwan’s southern tip. This proximity transforms the Philippines from a bystander into a potential frontline state in any Taiwan contingency. Its archipelagic geography straddles both the South China Sea and the Luzon Strait — two of the most critical maritime corridors in the Indo-Pacific. In a crisis, these narrow channels would become lifelines for allied logistics and chokepoints for Chinese naval movements, making Philippine territory indispensable to the defense of Taiwan and to the broader balance of power in Asia.
Marcos Jr. and the Strategic Reawakening
Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Manila has undergone a strategic reawakening. It has restored and expanded defense cooperation with the United States, Japan, and other like-minded partners. The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), new defense pacts with Japan, and renewed assertiveness in the West Philippine Sea have collectively repositioned the Philippines as a linchpin in the Indo-Pacific’s democratic coalition.
As the only U.S. treaty ally situated between the South China Sea and Taiwan — and as one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies — the Philippines embodies both the values and the strategic access that make it vital to preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific. In essence, the road to Taiwan — and to regional stability — now runs through Manila.
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The New Geometry of Deterrence
Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific is no longer built on rigid lines of containment. It’s evolving into a flexible “defense web” — a network of interlocking partnerships, access agreements, and coordinated patrols designed not for invasion, but for denial. The goal is to prevent unilateral control of vital sea lanes and air corridors. Within this expanding web, the Philippines has quietly become the geographic hinge connecting two of the world’s most volatile arenas: the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
From the northern islands of Luzon to the contested waters of the West Philippine Sea, the Philippines occupies the critical midpoint between flashpoints. It’s both the frontline of maritime sovereignty and the backline of allied logistics — the point where deterrence in the South China Sea meets defense planning for Taiwan. As one strategist aptly put it: “If Taiwan is the spark, the Philippines is the platform.”
The U.S.–Philippines Alliance 2.0: Revived and Reimagined
After years of drift, the U.S.–Philippines alliance has been revitalized. Through the EDCA, the Philippines is now central to Washington’s “distributed resilience” strategy — dispersing forces across the region for flexibility and survivability. Four of the nine EDCA sites, such as Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan and Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, sit within range of Taiwan, allowing rapid logistics and surveillance operations.
Joint military exercises like Balikatan 2025 — the largest in alliance history with over 20,000 troops — and new frameworks such as Salaknib and Kamandag have elevated interoperability between the two forces. This alliance is no longer one-sided; it’s mutual and modernized. For the U.S., it’s about strategic dispersion. For Manila, it’s about empowerment — infrastructure, defense capability, and allied assurance.
Australia: The Southern Pillar of Manila’s Defense Network
While the U.S. anchors the northern flank, Australia is rapidly becoming the southern pillar of Manila’s defense network. A landmark 2026 defense cooperation agreement is in the works, mirroring EDCA’s framework. Canberra is funding eight new defense infrastructure projects — including radar systems, airfield upgrades, and logistics hubs — designed to strengthen the Philippines’ southern maritime frontier.
Joint drills like Exercise Alon have showcased high-level interoperability, with Australian F/A-18F Super Hornets, Growler jets, and amphibious landing ships training alongside Filipino forces. This collaboration is transforming Australia from a supportive ally into a co-equal strategic partner. Both nations now form the southern shield of Indo-Pacific stability — ensuring that the sea lanes between the South China Sea and the Pacific remain secure and open.
Japan and the Philippines: A Strategic Renaissance
The Japan–Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) marks a historic turning point, allowing Japanese Self-Defense Forces to train and deploy in the Philippines. What once began with coast guard training and equipment donations has evolved into full-scale interoperability. This partnership cements the Philippines as part of Japan’s southern defense arc and strengthens Japan’s first island chain strategy.
For Tokyo, defending the Philippines’ maritime domain is synonymous with protecting its own. For Manila, Japan’s support amplifies its defense modernization and global standing. Together, Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. now form a northern defense triangle linking Okinawa, Luzon, and the Bashi Channel — a crucial arc of deterrence in Asia’s new age of geopolitics.
The Expanding Circle: Canada, New Zealand, and Europe Join In
Beyond its traditional allies, the Philippines is now attracting defense partnerships with Canada, New Zealand, France, the UK, Italy, Germany, Lithuania, and even Ukraine. New Visiting Forces Agreements (VFAs) with Canada and New Zealand are being finalized, allowing joint training and prepositioning of assets.
France and the UK have proposed joint patrols and base access agreements, while Italy and Germany are engaging in defense technology sharing and naval cooperation. Lithuania is supporting cybersecurity, and Ukraine is offering expertise in drone warfare and battlefield medicine. Collectively, these initiatives mark the NATO-ization of the Indo-Pacific, with Manila emerging as the connecting node between Western democracies and Pacific allies.
The Broader Strategic Logic: Deterring China Without Provocation
The Philippines’ rise as a strategic player is built on deterrence through access, not confrontation. Unlike Taiwan or Japan, the Philippines offers strategic ambiguity with operational utility — a platform that signals readiness without escalation. By granting access through EDCA and similar pacts, allies can reinforce deterrence against China while respecting Philippine sovereignty.
This makes the Philippines a deterrent by geography. In any Taiwan or South China Sea contingency, its bases provide rapid response options — acting as both a tripwire and a pressure valve. Manila’s approach balances proximity to conflict with a commitment to peace — making it a stabilizing force in an increasingly tense Indo-Pacific.
The New Map of Power in the Western Pacific
The modern Indo-Pacific deterrence architecture now forms a “lattice of deterrence” with the Philippines at its center. From Luzon’s northern edge to Palawan’s western frontier, new EDCA sites and allied access points link seamlessly with Japan’s southern defense line, Australia’s northern approach, and the U.S. bases in Guam and the Marianas.
This isn’t the old Cold War model of fixed alliances — it’s a fluid, networked system of defense. The Philippines is no longer a weak link; it’s the hinge connecting the South China Sea and the Pacific. Through trilateral and multilateral frameworks — from U.S.–Japan–Philippines coordination to AUKUS-adjacent dialogues — Manila has become the nerve center of the Indo-Pacific’s strategic web.
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China’s Dilemma and the Philippines’ Rise
Ironically, China’s aggressive behavior has created the very coalition it feared. Its militarization of the South China Sea and intimidation around Taiwan have pushed nations closer to Manila. Every Chinese provocation now loops back through Philippine waters or politics — reinforcing Manila’s role as the Indo-Pacific’s balancing weight.
The Philippines has thus evolved from a bystander to a fulcrum of deterrence — a small nation exerting outsize influence over the regional balance of power. Beijing sought to reshape the Indo-Pacific order, but in doing so, it redrew the map — with Manila at its center.
Epilogue: The Return of the Archipelagic Power
History has come full circle. Once home to massive American bases during the Cold War, the Philippines retreated into neutrality — only to now reclaim its place as the strategic crossroads of the Indo-Pacific. But this time, it stands not as a passive host, but as an active architect of regional security.
Its resurgence reflects the convergence of geography, diplomacy, and conviction at a moment of great-power transformation. As tensions rise across the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, one truth stands out: sometimes, the smallest nations sit on the largest crossroads of history. The Philippines is proof of that — an archipelagic power reborn at the very heart of Asia’s new security order.
