Introduction
India and Maldives share deep-rooted ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious, and commercial ties that stretch back to ancient times. India’s early recognition of Maldives after its independence in 1965 marked the beginning of diplomatic relations between the two nations. India established its mission in Maldives at the level of CDA in 1972 and upgraded to a resident High Commissioner in 1980. Maldives established a full-fledged High Commission in New Delhi in November 2004. Over the years, these relations have been nurtured and strengthened through regular high-level engagements. Almost all Indian Prime Ministers have visited Maldives, while former President Gayoom made numerous visits to India. President Mohamed Nasheed’s inaugural foreign visit was to India in December 2008, recognizing the paramount importance of India in Maldives’ foreign relations. Despite the historical ties and cordial relations, recent years have witnessed tensions between India and Maldives. The powder keg for the tensions is the recent social media spat between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Maldivian ministers. However, underlying issues signal a shift in Maldives’ foreign policy priorities under the leadership of President Mohamed Muizzu. While Muizzu aims to diversify Maldives’ foreign policy and enhance ties with China. His call for the withdrawal of Indian troops and the termination of security cooperation agreements reflects a desire for greater independence in security operations. This shift highlights Maldives’ growing discomfort because of renewed strategic competition and its aspiration to broaden partnerships while enhancing national sovereignty. Let’s deeply analyze, “Why did Maldives lose India?â€
The ‘India Out’ Campaign
Change in Power in the Maldives
The recent election of Mohammad Muizzu as the new President of Maldives has stirred considerable interest and speculation, particularly in India. He has officially requested India to withdraw its troops from the island, sparking discussions about the evolving political landscape in Maldives. This discussion aims to explore the factors driving India’s concerns and shed light on the shifts in Maldives’ political dynamics. Mohammad Muizzu emerged victorious in the presidential election held on September 23, 2023, securing 54% of the votes and defeating Ibrahim Solih, the incumbent president, who garnered 46% of the votes. Muizzu’s victory in the elections received acknowledgment from various leaders, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Prior to assuming the presidency, Muizzu served as the mayor of Male, the capital city of Maldives, albeit without substantial popularity in this role. He enjoyed support from former President Abdulla Yameen and contested as a candidate representing the Progressive Alliance, a coalition comprising the Progressive Party of Maldives and the People’s National Congress. Muizzu’s political alignment tends towards a pro-China stance, prompting speculation that his tenure may usher in a shift in Maldives’ foreign policy, favoring closer relations with China. His election campaign slogan, “India Out,” highlighted this inclination.
President Mohamed Muizzu’s pro-China stance and the ‘India Out’ campaign during elections
Muhammad Muizzu’s “India Out” campaign stems from several concerns regarding Maldives’ dependency on India. One primary issue raised by Muizzu is the perceived overreliance on India for defense matters. India has supplied significant defense equipment, including fast patrol vessels, a landing craft assault ship, helicopters, and a small aircraft, aimed at enhancing the maritime capabilities of the Maldivian National Defense Forces. However, Muizzu argues that this high dependency compromises Maldives’ sovereignty and independence.
Another key concern voiced by Muizzu is the presence of Indian military personnel in the Maldives, particularly the approximately 75 personnel responsible for operating and maintaining an Indian aircraft. Muizzu contends that such a level of foreign military presence amounts to interference in internal affairs and undermines the country’s autonomy.
In addition to these concerns, Muizzu’s campaign taps into nationalist sentiments, emphasizing the importance of removing Indian military personnel from the Maldives. This stance reflects a desire to assert Maldives’ sovereignty and cultivate self-reliance in the country’s defense capabilities.
Social Media War and Diplomatic Escalation
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s seemingly innocuous tweet about Lakshadweep triggered a social media war
India-Maldives relationship is under fresh strain following a spat over insulting remarks made by Maldivian ministers about India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on social media. Although the Maldivian government under newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu was swift in distancing itself from the offensive remarks — its Foreign Ministry issued a statement that the remarks reflect “opinions [that] are personal and do not represent the views of the Government of Maldives†— and suspended three deputy ministers who made the comments, India was not appeased. A day after the ministers were suspended, India’s Ministry of External Affairs summoned the Maldivian envoy in New Delhi to express its concern over the ministers’ comments. In a tit-for-tat move, the Maldivian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Indian high commissioner.
The war of words that erupted on social media escalated into a diplomatic row. It all began on January 4, when the Indian prime minister, who was visiting India’s Lakshadweep Islands, made a series of posts on Twitter, praising the “stunning beauty of the islands.†“For those who wish to embrace the adventurer in them, Lakshadweep has to be on your list,†he said.
An archipelago of 36 islands in the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep lies off the coast of the southern Indian state of Kerala. To its west is the Maldives, an archipelago of around 1,192 islands. Both Lakshadweep and the Maldives are tourist destinations, although the latter is far more developed to attract high-end tourists.
However, within a few hours of his posts on Lakshadweep, some of his supporters claimed on social media that his visit to the island chain would promote tourism there, even as an alternative tourist destination to the Maldives. Some indulged in name-calling too.
Since Muizzu took over the Maldivian presidency, he has taken several decisions that have contributed to the perception in India that he is pro-China. A wave of posts by Indian and Maldivian nationals, many of them supporters of the Modi and Muizzu governments, respectively, swept social media. Soon three deputy ministers in the Maldivian Ministry of Youth Empowerment, Information and Art – Maryam Shiuna, Malsha Shareef, and Mahzoom Majid – waded into the mud-slinging match.
Maldives’ Derogatory Remarks against PM Modi
In a now-deleted post on the social media platform Twitter, Shiuna derided Prime Minister Modi as a “diver with a life jacket” and labeled him a “clown,” “terrorist,” and a “puppet of Israel,” while also likening India to cow dung. The situation escalated as both Indians and Maldivians exchanged insults online. Notably, Indian celebrities from the film and cricket industry urged a boycott of Maldives and promoted Indian tourist destinations, leading to the trending hashtag Boycott Maldives. This online conflict could have repercussions beyond social media platforms.
Tourism stands as the largest industry in the Maldives, contributing 28 percent to its GDP and over 60 percent to its foreign exchange earnings. Recent data from the Maldivian Tourism Ministry revealed that of the 1.8 million foreign tourists in 2023, 11.2 percent were from India, followed closely by Russia (11.1 percent) and China (10 percent).
The controversy led to significant actions, with major travel booking portal EaseMyTrip suspending the sale of flight tickets to the Maldives. The Indian Chamber of Commerce’s Aviation and Tourism Committee called for the cessation of promoting Maldives due to expressed anti-India sentiments, urging airlines to suspend operations to the Maldives. While no Indian carrier has announced changes yet, bookings have reportedly declined. Intriguingly, online searches for Lakshadweep surged amid the crisis.
Indo-Maldivian relations historically thrived economically and in security cooperation, with India offering aid during crises like the 1988 coup attempt, the 2004 tsunami, the 2014 water shortages, and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, President Abdulla Yameen’s tenure (2013-2018) was tense with a pro-China tilt, although former President Ibrahim Solih restored an “India First” policy. However, Muizzu’s presidency reignited anti-India sentiments with promises to remove Indian security personnel.
Since taking office, Muizzu has demanded the withdrawal of Indian military personnel and declined to renew a hydrographic survey agreement with India, opting as his first official visit. He subsequently visited China, seeking increased tourism and likely investment deals amid the social media row. Both Modi and Muizzu share responsibility for the crisis, with Muizzu fueling anti-India sentiment and Modi’s supporters exacerbating tensions online. Given the circumstances, the India-Maldives rift was inevitable.
China’s Growing Influence
China’s emergence as a competitor to India in the Maldives
 China’s relationship with the Maldives initially developed slowly, as the state held little immediate significance for China upon its independence in 1965. Formal ties between the two countries began in October 1972, gradually deepening over time due to China’s expanding influence in the region. The relationship gained prominence most recently, notably from 2012 to 2014 when China increased its economic assistance to Maldives to $15.4 million, initiated direct flights between the two nations, and offered scholarships for higher education to Maldivian citizens. The opening of the first Chinese embassy in Maldives in 2014 marked a milestone, with China highlighting the relationship as a model for interaction between large and small states.
Several trade agreements and economic collaborations have been established, including the 2015 Free Trade Agreement, which China claims benefits Maldivian fishermen. Both countries have also engaged in military assistance agreements and joint training exercises. Despite China’s expressed interest in building a military base in Maldives, it refrained from doing so to avoid threatening India and the US, both security partners of Maldives.
Chinese-Maldivian relations have focused significantly on climate change and tourism, areas integral to Maldives’ foreign policy. The Maldivian Climate Change Policy Framework emphasizes building diplomatic and trade relations with states that support Maldives’ climate change advocacy and help improve its resilience against climate-related threats. China has provided economic assistance and technological support to enhance Maldives’ infrastructure and economy in response to climate challenges. Notably, China played a pivotal role in the construction of the ‘city of hope,’ Maldives’ first man-made city symbolizing resilience against climatic changes.
The shift in Maldivian leaders’ foreign visits (from India to Turkiye, UAE, and China)
 President Mohamed Muizzu of Maldives, known for his pro-China stance, has exacerbated tensions with India by ignoring the country and choosing China for his first state visit after an official trip to Turkiye. If Maldives continues to gravitate towards China while maintaining strained ties with India, there could be significant strategic and economic repercussions for both countries in the Indian Ocean Region.
The historical relationship between India and Maldives has been complex, largely influenced by Maldives’ political leadership. Despite historical fluctuations, India has consistently been the first to respond to crises in Maldives.
In 2009, Maldives President Mohammad Nashid strengthened ties with India by signing a comprehensive security agreement allowing for an Indian military presence in Maldives. Indian forces conducted various operations, including search and rescue missions, and joint patrols.
Between 2013 and 2018, relations between India and Maldives were strained under President Abdulla Yameen’s ‘India Out’ campaign, which aligned Maldives with China to reduce India’s influence on its security. Chinese investments through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) flourished during this period, with Chinese tourist numbers surging. Yameen’s policies led to high indebtedness and the leasing of several islands to China. However, Maldives’ foreign policy shifted again in 2018 with President Solih’s ‘India First’ campaign, restoring India’s strategic position as the primary security provider in the IOR.
President Mohamed Muizzu’s election in September 2023 revived Yameen’s ‘India Out’ campaign, likely supported by political disinformation and online amplification. Reports by the European Election Observation Mission revealed that Muizzu’s ruling coalition ran disinformation campaigns across social media platforms to manipulate public opinion, including anti-Indian sentiments based on fears of Indian influence and the presence of Indian military personnel.
Since assuming office, President Muizzu has significantly recalibrated Maldives’ international relations. He departed from tradition by visiting China before India, requested the withdrawal of Indian troops by March 15, 2024, and signed a $37 million deal with to fill the void left by the Indian security withdrawal. To reduce dependence on India, Maldives plans to import staple foods from Turkiye and explore alternative sources of pharmaceuticals. During Muizzu’s recent visit to China in January 2024, he and Xi Jinping signed numerous agreements spanning various sectors, including disaster risk reduction, fisheries, digital economy investment, acceleration of the BRI, and tourism.
President Muizzu’s request for India to remove its military personnel
Following his inauguration, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu formally requested India to withdraw its military personnel from the archipelago. The request was made during his meeting with Kiren Rijiju, India’s Minister for Earth Sciences, who attended the presidential inauguration ceremony. In an official statement, the president’s office emphasized that Muizzu’s request stemmed from the strong mandate he received from the Maldivian people during the September presidential election. Muizzu expressed his hope that India would respect the democratic will of the Maldivian populace.
India responded by announcing its decision to replace its military personnel in Maldives with civilian technical staff, who will oversee the operation of three aircraft from India dedicated to providing humanitarian services. This decision followed President Muizzu’s demand for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel by March 15th. It is estimated that approximately 75 Indian military personnel are currently stationed in Maldives, engaged in activities such as transporting patients from remote islands and conducting sea rescues. Previously, India had provided Maldives with a Dornier airplane and two helicopters.
Economic Impact and Tourism
Maldives’ heavy dependence on tourism
Comprising approximately 550,000 individuals across 185 islands stands as an upper-middle-income nation with a robust growth trajectory. Bolstered by a surge in tourist arrivals, its economy has sustained significant growth momentum in 2023 and is poised to continue along a path of robust growth and poverty reduction in the foreseeable future. Over the past decade, sustained economic performance has markedly diminished poverty levels, positioning the Maldives favorably compared to its regional small island counterparts in terms of poverty outcomes.
The country’s economy relies heavily on tourism, which serves as the primary driver of its economic expansion. However, this reliance on tourism renders it highly susceptible to macroeconomic fluctuations and external shocks. In 2022, the economy witnessed a remarkable real growth rate of 13.9 percent year-on-year, followed by a 5.5 percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2023.
By August 2023, tourist arrivals had reached 1.2 million, marking a 13.8 percent increase from 2022. However, the hike in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in January 2023, coupled with elevated global commodity prices, has fueled domestic inflation, which averaged 3.5 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2023. Notably, price escalations were most pronounced in the food sector, peaking at 8.0 percent in March before moderating to 4.5 percent in June, as well as in transport, health, and restaurant services.
Moreover, the country’s current account deficit widened to 16.5 percent of GDP in 2022, as it imported more oil and capital goods for its large infrastructure projects. This put a strain on its foreign exchange reserves, which dropped from US$790 million in January to US$594 million in July, covering only two months of imports.
India’s significant contribution to Maldivian tourism
India’s smaller neighbors — Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives — face the dilemma of dealing with a ‘Big Brother’ who can be both generous and heavy-handed. They are compelled to maneuver within these constraints. Like the other former pro-China president of the Maldives, Abdullah Yameen, Muizzu must also know how far he can go. Despite Yameen’s ‘India out’ emblazoned on his election campaign T-shirt, when in power he ensured that the relationship was not damaged irreparably.
Sooner or later, Muizzu will have to be practical and foster friendly ties with India. The reason is that India contributed $380 million to tourism in the Maldives in 2023, with Indian tourists accounting for 11.2 percent of the total arrivals (1.84 million) last year. Celebrities in India have given calls to boycott the Maldives threatening its tourism revenue. Indian tour operators have reported a sudden and significant drop in enquires for the Maldives with Indian tour operators witnessing a 40 percent decline in bookings. The prices of holiday packages for the island nation have dropped with declining demand and an Indian flight booking site stopped taking bookings for the Maldives ‘in solidarity with our nation’.
Public Sentiment and Diplomatic Resolution
Maldivian citizens, well aware of the historical ties and cultural affinities shared with India, are advocating for a diplomatic resolution to the issues. In the face of challenges, many Maldivians stress the significance of engaging in dialogue and fostering mutual understanding as opposed to resorting to hostilities.
Additionally, Maldivians recognize the positive impact of Indian tourists on their economy and the potential for employment opportunities in the tourism sector. Acknowledging the deep economic interdependence, the Maldivian perspective underscores the importance of nurturing amicable relations with India for the collective well-being of both nations. Through social media campaigns and public discourse, the shared benefits of tourism and economic cooperation are highlighted, emphasizing the imperative to find diplomatic resolutions for any misunderstandings that may arise. The hope among Maldivians is that diplomatic channels will be effectively utilized to create a conducive environment for sustained collaboration and partnership, facilitating the mutual growth of both countries.
Conclusion
To conclude, Considering Muizzu’s views, we can expect that India’s position will remain pre-eminent in the Maldives. However, the Maldives will also continue to push for closer ties with China, given its past alignment with Beijing during Yameen’s presidency, who is Muizzu’s mentor. This may lead to a continuation of the political competition between China and India for influence in the Maldives. Nevertheless, the Maldives is aware that it is not in its best interest to solely rely on China. The country’s experience with Chinese debt and concerns about over-dependence serve as a reminder of the importance of diversifying its partnerships and maintaining a balanced approach. For India, it is crucial to avoid creating the impression that it has favorites within the Maldivian political landscape. To navigate these complex challenges, India must adopt a middle approach that focuses on cooperation, engagement, and partnership without resorting to a zero-sum game mentality. This approach will allow India to safeguard its interests, maintain its regional influence, and foster a mutually beneficial relationship with the Maldives.
