Let’s spill the beans on why the Philippines is the hottest ticket in Southeast Asia. The Southeast Asian nation is attempting to negotiate a SOVFA-style agreement with Japan under Marcos Jr. and a trilateral Japan-Philippines-US security relationship, particularly given mounting fears about a possible Chinese invasion of nearby Taiwan. The Philippines, the only Southeast Asian country with a Mutual Defense Treaty with Washington and a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement with Australia, has staged large-scale wargames alongside the United States, Australia, and, increasingly, Japan.
Unlocking Southeast Asia
Unbeknownst to you, the 16th-century Spanish colonizer of the Philippines, Philip II, was the king of Spain at the time of the Philippines’ naming. The Philippines shares many cultural traits with the West due to its 333 years of Spanish rule and its 48 years of American tutelage. It’s intriguing to know that. This Southeast Asian island nation of the Philippines is located in the western Pacific Ocean. It is an archipelago 500 miles off the coast of Vietnam, comprising more than 7,000 islands and islets. The most populated city in the nation is Quezon City, which is close to Manila, the capital. Both are situated on the main island, Luzon, and are a part of the National Capital Region, or Metro Manila. Southeast Asia’s Mindanao is the country’s second-largest island. The South China Sea borders the Philippine archipelago on the West and north, the Sulu Sea on the southwest, the Celebes Sea on the south, and the Philippine Sea on the east. The latter is to be addressed subsequently. Three groups comprise the big islands:
(1) the Visayas group in the center, which includes Bohol, Cebu, Leyte, Masbate, Negros, Panay, and Samar;
(2) the Luzon group in the north and West, which includes Luzon, Mindoro, and Palawan
(3) and Mindanao in the South.
The Philippine archipelago is divided into 18 regions, with Manila as the capital and Luzon as the industrial hub. Mindanao, the second-largest island, has a predominantly rural economy. Visayas, the middle islands, are home to rich biodiversity and popular tourist spots. Because of its advantageous location as a gateway between the Pacific and Asia, especially near China and Japan, the nation has numerous vital marine routes for trade and business. However, the South China Sea territorial dispute and China’s growing influence in the area are endangering bilateral trade between the two countries.
The Southeast Asian Connection
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations exists to create the largest single-market economy by facilitating the free movement of professionals, commodities, and services among its ten member states. The Philippines, a founding member of the ASEAN, plays a crucial role in the bloc’s interactions and relationships. The Philippines actively contributes to developing the regional agenda for ASEAN, ensuring its significance and relevance in the global arena. The Philippines consistently prioritizes ASEAN in all internal and external interactions, stating that it will always be the force behind regionalism and serve as a mediator between rival regional powers. The fundamental goal is to enhance a regional order that fosters good behavior, international trade, and adherence to globally recognized standards and laws for the region’s benefit. ASEAN is a regional entity, with member states serving as the focal point of a regional body that seeks to function as an economic and political community. Despite needing a unified foreign policy, the ASEAN works to develop a unified stance on matters impacting the area.
Each member state’s national interests and agendas inform and influence the policy orientation that each has chosen. As a result, tensions have arisen amongst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. In light of this, the Philippines must continue to maintain a tactful and diplomatic stance in its dealings with other members to advance its interests, particularly about delicate matters like the defense and advancement of human rights, democracy, trade and economic concerns, maritime and territorial disputes, and other challenging relationship issues. In line with the multilateral framework governing Philippine-ASEAN relations, there is a parallel development in the strength of bilateral and trade connections with other member states.
Manila is dear to Washington
The United States and the Philippines have a strong diplomatic relationship, with strong historical and cultural ties and a shared commitment to democracy. The 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty established a solid foundation for security cooperation. The two nations have a robust trade and investment partnership, with an expected $22.6 billion in total goods trade in 2023 and $10.6 billion in services in 2022. The Philippines’ biggest export market is the United States, with semiconductor devices, car parts, electric machinery, textiles, clothing, wheat, animal feed, coconut oil, and information technology/business process outsourcing services being the main imports. The US and the Philippines have also partnered to investigate expanding the worldwide semiconductor ecosystem through the International Technology Security and Innovation Fund. Both countries agreed on a bilateral Trade and Investment Framework Agreement and a tax treaty in 1989. They are also working on increasing collaboration in clean and renewable energy, particularly civil nuclear cooperation.
The Closest Neighbor
Southeast Asia’s most significant strategic ally is the Philippines, one of Japan’s closest neighbors. The South China Sea, which Beijing says is its mare nostrum, is where the two nations’ maritime borders meet. Although there is less American influence in the Philippine archipelago than in Japan, the two neighbors have very similar policies in response to the difficulties they encounter. China was not pleased with Japan’s 2016 agreement to supply military weapons to the Philippines. Beijing was also incensed when Japan chose to arm Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion of that nation in February 2022. Tokyo and Moscow have been embroiled in a protracted conflict for decades on the Kuril Islands, which Russia has ruled since 1945. Most notably, Japan’s new Official Security Assistance, which strives to strengthen the armed forces of like-minded nations, was recently extended to the Philippines for the first time. Tokyo’s 2022 National Security Strategy, which calls for “equipment and assistance for infrastructure development to like-minded countries,” includes this collaboration. Notably, the Philippines, a participant in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, signed this deal soon after quitting the Belt and Road Initiative, which Beijing was sponsoring and a significant component of its geopolitical outreach.
The Philippine-China Conundrum
Over several centuries, relations between the Philippines and China have generally been friendly. However, intense problems that both nations have been dealing with have caused them to “cool off,” reaching a low point since their diplomatic relations were established in June 1975.
The West Philippine Sea territorial disputes have recently been the main focus of relations between the Philippines and China. These disputes have grown worse since the naval standoff over Scarborough Shoal in April 2012 and have been made worse by Chinese illegal occupation, infrastructure construction, and incursions and encroachment into the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
When the Philippine government filed an arbitration lawsuit under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea against China in January 2013, contesting the validity of China’s nine-dash line claim over the disputed waters, bilateral relations took a hit. Despite the years of attention given to the territorial disputes, the two nations should be able to continue working together in other areas. The Philippines and China have extensive and deep-rooted relationships. So, different facets of their relationship should encourage cooperation for mutual benefit. China and the Philippines must avoid bilateral issues that undermine the climate of collaboration. To do this, they must move past the tense and destructive cycle of “action-reaction,” in which repeated provocations in disputed maritime areas are met with violent and hostile protests. To create more opportunities to focus on other positive and productive relations areas, it is optional to completely set aside maritime conflicts and territorial issues to overcome contentious differences. Instead, these issues should be moved to the side of the center.
For bilateral ties to endure beyond conflicts, the Philippines and China need to remember the long-term importance of preserving functional collaboration since all it takes is a hostile event at sea to trigger a return to mutual suspicion and mistrust. China is a crucial economic partner with which the Philippines must interact regularly to reap financial rewards for its development. In particular, as it demonstrates that it is a responsible great power, China views the Philippines as a country with whom it must establish good relations to win the confidence and respect of other regional states.
There is a complex web of territorial claims in the South China Sea. At least six governments claim parts of the Paracels and the Spratly Islands. Conflicting island and marine claims in the South China Sea by many sovereign entities, including China, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan, are known as territorial disputes. The islands, reefs, banks, and other topographical features of the area, such as the Scarborough Shoal, Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and several Gulf of Tonkin boundaries, are at issue in the disputes. There is also disagreement over the waters surrounding the Indonesian Natuna Islands, which some people believe to be geographically a part of the South China Sea. More than just might and prestige are involved in establishing a foothold in the South China Sea.
Claims to fishing rights and possibly far more significant but unproven oil and gas assets located deep under the ocean are being made by several parties. The Chinese government has obstructed Vietnam’s efforts to explore its own waters off its coasts, claiming that Beijing owns the great majority of the resources in the South China Sea. Regional powers are tense over the impasse between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea. China and the US are unlikely to back down from their territorial claims, as President Xi Jinping emphasized in June that any ancestry-passed territory cannot be lost. US commanders claim they have not stopped opening these seas for the past fifty years despite concerns about unintentional warfare. There appears to be no end to Beijing’s growth caused by these US Navy aircraft.
Despite international disputes, the Philippines is a gateway to Southeast Asia’s wealth and diversity.
