The Second Thomas Shoal, also known as Ayungin Shoal, is a small but strategically significant reef in the South China Sea. It is one of the many contested maritime features in this geopolitically volatile region, claimed by China, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The dispute over this shoal is emblematic of the broader tensions that define the South China Sea territorial conflicts.
Historical Context
The Philippines first took possession of the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. The Philippine Navy maintains a presence on the shoal with a small contingent of Marine personnel stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era landing ship deliberately grounded on the atoll. This move was a strategic response to China’s occupation and reclamation activities on Mischief Reef, another contested feature in the Spratly Islands.
China, meanwhile, asserts its claim based on the historical Nine-Dash Line, a demarcation that covers most of the South China Sea. This line, introduced by the Republic of China in 1947 and later adopted by the People’s Republic of China, is not recognized by international law but forms the basis of China’s “indisputable sovereignty” claim over the region. Despite the Philippines’ position that the Second Thomas Shoal is part of its continental shelf, China’s expansive claims have led to frequent and sometimes hostile interactions between Chinese and Philippine forces.
Significance of the Second Thomas Shoal
The Second Thomas Shoal is situated in the Spratly Islands, approximately 105 nautical miles west of Palawan, Philippines. Its significance is both geopolitical and geoeconomic, making it a critical flashpoint in the South China Sea disputes.
Geopolitical Importance
The South China Sea is one of the world’s busiest maritime regions, facilitating an estimated $3.4 trillion in global trade annually. The area is also rich in natural resources, including significant reserves of fossil fuels and abundant fishing grounds. Control over the South China Sea, therefore, offers not only economic benefits but also strategic military advantages.
For China, dominance over the South China Sea is essential for several reasons. Firstly, it secures vital trade routes that are crucial for the Chinese economy. Secondly, it provides a buffer zone to protect China’s coastal economic and military hubs. Finally, controlling the South China Sea allows China to project power and influence in the region, challenging the presence and operations of the United States and its allies.
The Second Thomas Shoal, by virtue of its location, is a microcosm of these broader strategic objectives. The shoal’s control enables the monitoring and potentially the interdiction of maritime traffic, serving as a forward base for military operations. For the Philippines, maintaining a presence on the shoal is a matter of national sovereignty and security, given its proximity to the Philippine mainland.
Recent Clashes and Escalation
The Second Thomas Shoal has been a hotspot for confrontations between China and the Philippines. Recent incidents highlight the increasing volatility in the area:
Incident on June 17, 2024
On June 17, 2024, Chinese coast guard ships reportedly rammed, boarded, and used machetes and axes to damage two Philippine navy boats. This chaotic faceoff resulted in injuries to Filipino navy personnel stationed at the shoal. The Chinese coast guard also seized Philippine navy rifles. The Philippine military chief condemned the incident, likening it to an act of piracy, and demanded that China return the rifles and pay for the damage.
Incident on June 18,2024
The following day, Chinese forces seized two Philippine rubber boats delivering food and other supplies to the military outpost on the shoal. This led to a tense confrontation, resulting in more injuries among Filipino navy personnel. In response, the United States renewed its warning that it is obligated to defend the Philippines under their mutual defense treaty, underscoring the potential for a broader conflict involving the United States and China.
Other Incidents
Over the past 18 months, there have been numerous confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels. The China Coast Guard has repeatedly attempted to block the Philippines from resupplying the BRP Sierra Madre. These incidents have not only escalated tensions but have also drawn international attention to the precarious situation at the shoal.
The Broader Security Dilemma
The situation at the Second Thomas Shoal illustrates the broader security dilemma in the South China Sea. The overlapping historical claims, national interests, and strategic calculations of various countries make the resolution of these disputes particularly challenging.
The Role of the United States
The United States plays a crucial role in the South China Sea disputes. As a treaty ally of the Philippines, the U.S. has a vested interest in ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight in the region. The U.S. conducts regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge what it considers excessive maritime claims by China. These operations are meant to reinforce international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which China’s Nine-Dash Line contravenes.
The U.S. presence also serves as a counterbalance to China’s growing military capabilities. American military bases and assets in the Pacific, including those in Guam and Japan, are strategically positioned to respond to any aggressive actions in the South China Sea. The U.S. has also increased its military cooperation with ASEAN countries, providing support and conducting joint exercises to bolster regional security.
Regional Responses
Other countries in the region, particularly those with claims in the South China Sea, have also responded to China’s assertiveness. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei have all reinforced their own claims and increased their military capabilities. These countries have sought to balance their relationships with both China and the United States, leveraging international diplomacy to garner support for their positions.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been a platform for dialogue, although its effectiveness is often limited by the divergent interests of its member states. The South China Sea Code of Conduct, which has been under negotiation for years, aims to establish guidelines for behavior in the disputed waters but has yet to be finalized.
Legal and Diplomatic Dimensions
The legal and diplomatic dimensions of the South China Sea disputes are complex and multifaceted. The 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which invalidated China’s Nine-Dash Line claims, was a significant legal victory for the Philippines. However, China has refused to recognize the ruling, continuing to assert its claims and expanding its presence in the region.
Diplomatically, the Philippines has sought to engage with China while also strengthening its alliances with other countries. The administration of President Rodrigo Duterte initially pursued a more conciliatory approach to China, hoping to secure economic benefits and investments. However, continued Chinese incursions and harassment of Philippine vessels have led to a reassessment of this strategy. The current administration under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken a firmer stance, reaffirming its defense ties with the United States and seeking broader international support.
The Geo-economic Implications
Beyond the immediate security concerns, the South China Sea disputes have significant geoeconomic implications. The region’s vast reserves of oil and natural gas are a major point of contention. Estimates suggest that the South China Sea contains about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, making it a highly coveted area for energy exploration and exploitation.
Fishing is another critical economic activity in the South China Sea. The waters are among the most productive in the world, supporting the livelihoods of millions of people in coastal communities. The competition for fishing grounds has led to numerous clashes between fishing vessels and coast guards from the claimant countries. Overfishing and environmental degradation further exacerbate the situation, threatening the sustainability of the region’s marine resources.
The strategic importance of the South China Sea also extends to its role as a major shipping lane. Around one-third of global maritime trade passes through these waters, including vital energy supplies to East Asian economies. Any disruption to shipping routes due to conflict or increased militarization would have far-reaching economic consequences, not just for the region but for global trade as a whole.
Towards a Resolution?
Resolving the disputes in the South China Sea, including the Second Thomas Shoal, requires a multifaceted approach that addresses the underlying historical, legal, and strategic issues. Confidence-building measures, such as joint development agreements and collaborative environmental initiatives, could help reduce tensions and foster cooperation. However, these efforts must be underpinned by a commitment to international law and respect for the sovereignty and rights of all claimant countries.
Multilateral Diplomacy
Multilateral diplomacy will be key to finding a lasting resolution. ASEAN, despite its challenges, remains a critical forum for dialogue. Engaging China through ASEAN-led mechanisms can help build trust and establish norms for behavior in the disputed areas. The involvement of external powers, such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, can also provide a balancing influence and support for regional security initiatives.
Legal Avenues
Legal avenues, including arbitration and adjudication, offer a means to clarify claims and establish a rules-based order in the South China Sea. The 2016 arbitral ruling provides a legal precedent that can be leveraged in future disputes. While China’s non-compliance with the ruling is a significant obstacle, continued international pressure and diplomatic efforts can encourage adherence to international law.
Bilateral Engagement
Bilateral engagement between the claimant countries is equally important. The Philippines and China, for instance, have mechanisms for bilateral consultations and dialogues. Strengthening these channels and ensuring that they are used to address specific incidents and broader strategic concerns can help manage tensions and prevent escalation.
End Note
The ownership and significance of the Second Thomas Shoal encapsulate the complexities and stakes of the South China Sea disputes. This small atoll, while seemingly minor, is a focal point of broader geopolitical, geo-economic, and strategic dynamics that shape the region. The ongoing confrontations and the potential for broader conflict underscore the urgent need for a resolution framework that respects international law.
