This year, over 80 countries, including some of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful nations and the most populous, autocratic, and unstable ones, will be allowed to vote.
It appears that this year will put even the most resilient democracies to the test and give those in positions of authority more power.
How the presidential and legislative elections turned out will significantly impact human rights, economics, international relations, and the likelihood of peace in a volatile world spanning Russia, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom to India, El Salvador, and South Africa. Many votes will put democracy to the test, while others will be rubber-stamped. Some will be boycotted by the opposition or harmed by government crackdowns on the media and dissenters.
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In 2023, the United States achieved considerable gains in Asia by strengthening its Asian alliances and developing closer ties with key allies such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. The Biden administration also strengthened diplomatic contacts with China. Nonetheless, internal political polarization within the United States, global conflicts, and upcoming US elections pose hurdles to maintaining American momentum in Asia by 2024.
A significant concern heading into 2024 is whether the Biden administration can preserve US progress in Asia. It will confront significant obstacles in doing so. The first challenge is the diplomatic calendar. None of the big annual meetings US officials typically attend will provide a tailwind for the country’s regional policy. With President Biden campaigning for re-election in 2024, it seems likely that he will spend little time in Asia until the US presidential election in November 2024.
Washington will also have to deal with the consequences of developments beyond Asia. Suppose the Biden administration fails to continue helping Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. In that case, Beijing will have the opportunity to sell a narrative across Asia that the US is absent and untrustworthy. If the crisis between Israel and Hamas worsens or deepens, US leadership will face further pressure. Developments outside Asia may exert downward pressure on US leadership in Asia.
President of the United States, Joe Biden, often characterizes contemporary international politics as a “battle between democracy and autocracy,” referring to a variety of topics like China’s rivalry, Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, and even Israel’s conflict with Hamas.
As the election cycle heats up, knowing how the presidential contenders would handle foreign policy is crucial, given that the US has become involved in several significant issues worldwide. Though Americans typically worry more about the economy than foreign policy, Biden and Trump might find that their proposals for overseas US involvement have the potential to make a difference. In February, the foreign policy community assembled for a roundtable discussion titled “Reimagining US Grand Strategy” to explore the proposition that foreign policy will be included on the ballot this year. In addition to discussing foreign policy topics that are most likely to impact the election, the debate included instances from previous presidential elections where foreign policy was a significant factor. Most of the group agreed that voters are interested in the Gaza War, immigration, and growing tensions with China. There was also consensus that the Ukrainian conflict was becoming less critical. Regarding the potential impact of the significant foreign policy issues on the election, opinions were more divergent.
This year’s election may also be heavily influenced by foreign policy. A recent AP/NORC survey found that, up from 18% a year earlier, 38% of Americans cited foreign policy as one of the top five concerns the US government should focus on in 2024. An evident international crisis and distinct foreign policy positions held by the rival candidates are typically requirements for foreign policy to impact an election.
If Biden and Trump face off in this year’s election, both candidates might be involved in a few concerns. If Trump returns to the White House, Southeast Asian countries may face more pressure to take sides in geopolitical disputes. There is no middle ground for ASEAN or its member states. The true challenge is to see an authoritarian US president ruling the most powerful democracy, which has gradually declined. Worryingly, this phenomenon may provide ammunition to authoritarian regimes across Asia, straining ASEAN’s internal dynamics and exterior interactions.
A formidable contender in the current context would be someone who challenges America’s mindless backing of Israel as it keeps detaining, murdering, and starving Palestinians in Gaza. Many others chose to vote for someone other than Biden in states without a write-in option, not because they supported the other candidate but rather to express their displeasure with Biden’s stance on Israel. In other words, electors can see that the construction of a makeshift port in Gaza after airdrops of humanitarian supplies to Rafah and the circumvention of Congress to arm Israel despite its war crimes are not displays of “strength” but relatively consistent dishonesty.
Moreover, another obstacle is the ongoing debate within the United States regarding its global position. The American populace is flirting with another round of isolationism. Whereas 65% of liberals believe it is ideal for the United States to be involved globally, only 30% of conservatives and 43% of moderates concur. The gap between conservative and liberal perspectives on the United States’ position worldwide has widened from 17% in 2020 to 35% in 2023. This growing ideological polarization may limit the Biden administration’s political flexibility during an election year. These limits will be most noticeable in trade. The Biden administration’s biggest failure has been the need for a realistic trade and economic program for Asia. Political and national security imperatives will continue shaping the US trade approach. Do not anticipate the Biden administration to be very creative or courageous on trade in 2024.
There will be flashpoints and hazards that must be managed consistently. These include North Korea’s predicted saber-rattling, China’s reaction to Taiwan’s January 2024 election, and issues in the South China Sea. Both the United States and China will work to mitigate vulnerabilities caused by their dependency. They will concentrate on addressing their internal issues and limitations while also seeking partners to serve as a buffer against competition from one another. US partners would likely withhold their backing for additional competitive steps against China until they are confident in the direction of US strategy after 2024.
In addition to the churning in Asia’s political pools, there are concerning economic tides. China’s economy desperately needs a boost, but foreign corporations are scared of Beijing; meanwhile, Southeast Asia’s “scamdemic” is genuinely a global issue. Afghanistan remains impoverished and hungry while the international community disputes how to deal with the Taliban regime, while Pakistan’s economy oscillates between recovery and crisis.
Numerous unresolved conflicts are brewing across Asia, spanning from the South China Sea to Myanmar. Notably, the Philippines finds itself in a prominent standoff with China. Meanwhile, ongoing crises in the Middle East and Europe serve as distractions, diverting American focus and disrupting broader global dynamics.
The United States, despite being the world’s most powerful nation, faces significant challenges in adapting to a rapidly changing global landscape. Big decisions are looming. The next US president, whether Biden or Trump is elected again, will probably face a more challenging external environment, which includes an increasingly assertive and assertive Russia that has turned the European security architecture upside down, a Middle East that continues to be unstable, and an increasingly dangerous and unstable Asia. Perhaps most importantly, the next president will be able to decide whether the United States will essentially go it alone, using its influence to advance a fundamentally transactional foreign policy, or whether it will collaborate with long-standing partners and cultivate new relationships in support of an international order in which might not always equal right. The globe will be significantly impacted by what occurs in November. However, who wins the White House may be substantially influenced by events happening in the rest of the world. All the world can do is observe and wait.
