Imagine a high-stakes boardroom in Taipei, where executives from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are gathered around a sleek conference table. The atmosphere is tense as they discuss the latest directive from U.S. regulators: halt shipments of their most advanced chips to China. This decision, driven by the discovery of TSMC made chips in Huawei devices despite U.S. sanctions, sends ripples through the tech world and beyond. The implications are vast, not just for TSMC and its Chinese clients, but for the geopolitical landscape as a whole.
As Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office, one of the most pressing foreign policy questions is whether he can effectively protect Taiwan from the growing ambitions of China. In recent years, Beijing has significantly ramped up its military presence near Taiwan, with frequent incursions into the island’s airspace and an increasingly assertive stance that positions reunification as non-negotiable. Against this backdrop, Taiwan’s security has become a core focus of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
Trump’s previous term laid a foundation of strong U.S.-Taiwan relations, with unprecedented arms sales and an explicit stance on countering Chinese aggression. Yet, in a landscape where China’s power and influence have only expanded, Trump’s approach this time around will face steeper challenges. From enhancing military deterrence to bolstering regional alliances, Trump’s administration will need a calculated mix of diplomacy, defense strategies, and economic leverage if the U.S. is to continue safeguarding Taiwan’s autonomy and stability amid one of the most precarious standoffs in modern geopolitics.
Will Trump’s policies be enough to keep Taiwan out of Beijing’s grasp, or is the situation spiraling beyond Washington’s control? The stakes are high, and the world is watching.
Taiwan’s Current Status: A Tense Balance on the Global Stage
In recent years, Taiwan has emerged as a critical point of contention in the global geopolitical arena, symbolizing the broader clash between democratic ideals and authoritarian ambitions. Positioned at the nexus of U.S.-China rivalry, Taiwan’s strategic importance extends beyond its political complexities. As a powerhouse in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan influences global technology and supply chains disproportionately to its size. Despite Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over Taiwan, the island operates with its own robust government and military, effectively functioning as an independent nation without formal international recognition.
China’s approach towards Taiwan remains rigid and aggressive, with consistent military maneuvers aimed at asserting dominance and undermining Taiwan’s defenses. The Chinese government has made clear its intention to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary, prompting a strong response from the U.S. Washington has boosted its support for Taiwan through significant arms sales, strategic high-level visits, and an increased military presence in the region.
China’s Stance on Taiwan: A Renegade Province at the Heart of a Geopolitical Struggle
China’s unwavering stance on Taiwan is deeply embedded in its foreign policy, driven by the conviction that Taiwan is a breakaway province that must reunify with the mainland—if necessary, by force. This perspective, dating back to the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when the Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan, has remained the same. Beijing has persistently worked to prevent any formal international recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty, viewing any move towards independence as a direct affront to China’s territorial integrity. For Beijing, Taiwan is not just a political prize but a symbol of the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy and a focal point of its broader strategic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
Chinese leadership has ramped up military threats, diplomatic pressure, and economic coercion against countries that recognize Taiwan or engage with it diplomatically. Frequent incursions into Taiwan’s airspace and naval blockades are designed to intimidate the island’s defenses. Despite this, Taiwan has shown remarkable resilience with its democratic governance, booming tech industry, and a proactive push for international recognition. China’s determination to reclaim Taiwan remains unyielding, setting the stage for one of the most volatile flashpoints in modern geopolitics.
The U.S. in the Picture: A Strategic Player in Taiwan’s Security
The United States remains a pivotal force in the Taiwan-China equation, acting as both a diplomatic and military counterbalance to Beijing’s aggressive stance on the island. Although Washington officially adheres to the “One China” policy—acknowledging Beijing’s claim to Taiwan—it has consistently supported Taiwan through military aid, diplomatic channels, and a broader strategic framework to contain China’s expansionist ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the U.S. is committed to providing Taiwan with the means to defend itself, ensuring that any attempt by China to forcibly alter the island’s status would carry significant consequences. This policy has been a source of ongoing tension between the U.S. and China, with Washington repeatedly indorsing its security guarantees to Taiwan despite Beijing’s strong objections. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, which include advanced missile defense systems, fighter jets, and other critical military technologies, are a clear signal of America’s open support for the island’s security.
Beyond military assistance, the U.S. also plays a crucial diplomatic role. While it does not formally recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, the U.S. engages with Taiwan in numerous capacities—ranging from trade agreements to official visits by high-ranking U.S. officials. As China intensifies its military presence around Taiwan, the U.S. has also ramped up its own military activities in the region, conducting joint military drills and ensuring a robust presence in international waters, particularly in the South China Sea. For Washington, Taiwan is not just a geopolitical flashpoint—it represents a bulwark against China’s regional ambitions and a testament to the U.S. commitment to defending democratic values.
The Realm of Joe Biden: Navigating Global Challenges with a Steady Hand
President Joe Biden’s tenure has been marked by a concerted effort to restore stability to both domestic policy and international relations. With a focus on rebuilding alliances, addressing global challenges, and advancing a progressive domestic agenda, Biden has sought to position the U.S. as a stabilizing force on the world stage. However, his realm is far from simple; it is a complex balancing act of managing the rising challenges of a multipolar world while simultaneously grappling with the enduring issues of a fractured domestic landscape.
At the core of Biden’s foreign policy is the vision of reasserting American leadership globally, particularly in countering the rise of China and Russia. He prioritized alliances, rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement, and reinforced NATO, while also pivoting U.S. policy toward Asia. The U.S. relationship with Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan were emphasized, alongside efforts to strengthen the Quad and ASEAN.
Trump’s Previous Presidency and Stance on Taiwan: A Bold Shift in U.S.-China Relations
During his four years in office, Donald Trump dramatically reshaped U.S. foreign policy, with his stance on Taiwan marking one of the most notable shifts in U.S.-China relations. Departing from the strategic ambiguity of previous administrations, which acknowledged China’s “One China” policy while avoiding direct support for Taiwan’s independence, Trump adopted a more assertive and confrontational approach. His administration approved significant arms sales to Taiwan, including advanced missile defense systems and fighter jets, indicating a full throttle American support for Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities. This move, coupled with increased official exchanges between U.S. and Taiwanese officials, sent a clear message to Beijing that the U.S. would stand by Taiwan in the face of aggression.
Trump’s policy on Taiwan was not without its complexities. While his administration took a vocal and assertive stance, it also pursued trade negotiations with China, leading to a balancing act. Taiwan became a symbol of Trump’s broader strategy to confront China on various fronts, from trade to military posturing in the South China Sea. Trump’s legacy on Taiwan is thus marked by a shift from traditional diplomatic restraint to active engagement
How Trump Sees Taiwan’s Issue Now: A Continuing Commitment to Confront China
As Donald Trump eyes a potential return to the Oval Office, his views on Taiwan remain firmly anchored in his broader strategy of countering China’s rise and asserting American dominance in the Indo-Pacific. During his previous administration, Taiwan emerged as a central focal point of U.S.-China tensions, with Trump adopting a notably assertive stance. With another term in office, it’s evident that Trump continues to see Taiwan as a key battleground in the geopolitical struggle with China. His rhetoric and policy are likely to reflect a continuation of his confrontational approach, framing Taiwan’s security as integral to the balance of power in the region and a symbol of America’s commitment to standing up to China’s authoritarian ambitions.
Trump has consistently used Taiwan as a strategic point in his broader anti-China agenda. He views Taiwan’s security as directly linked to maintaining U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific and has been outspoken in defending the island’s right to self-governance. From approving significant arms sales to advocating for Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, Trump’s actions have signalled a robust American support. This hardline stance is likely to persist, with Trump committed to preventing China from gaining unchallenged control over Taiwan.
China’s Take on Taiwan Now: Unyielding Claims and Growing Tensions
China’s stance on Taiwan remains rigid, rooted in its long-standing claim that the island is a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing’s position has only hardened with a wolf warrior approach, claiming that Taiwan is an integral part of China’s sovereign territory. This conviction is reflected in China’s increasing military exercises around Taiwan and its extensive diplomatic efforts to isolate the island internationally.
Xi’s “One China” policy dictates a non-negotiable stance on reunification, which is seen as both a historical necessity and a matter of national pride. While peaceful reunification is stated as the preferred path, Xi has made it clear that China is prepared to use force if Taiwan moves toward independence or if there is significant foreign interference.
In recent times, Beijing has ramped up its military presence near Taiwan, conducting frequent drills and sending fighter jets and warships into the island’s airspace and territorial waters. Concurrently, China has intensified its diplomatic pressure, leveraging economic and political influence to dissuade other countries from recognizing or interacting with the Taiwanese government. This multifaceted approach aims to create a climate of fear and uncertainty, deterring international support for Taiwan and pressuring its leadership toward submission.
A Tactical Game of Deterrence and Diplomacy
The U.S. has long walked a tightrope of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan, maintaining formal diplomatic ties with China while enhancing Taiwan’s defense through arms sales and military assistance. This delicate balance has allowed Washington to support Taiwan’s security without directly challenging China’s sovereignty claims. Yet, with China’s military capabilities surging and its stance on Taiwan hardening, the U.S. faces increasing pressure to recalibrate its approach.
Moving forward, the U.S. is poised to continue its support for Taiwan via military aid, trade agreements, and diplomatic backing, particularly within international bodies where China seeks to isolate the island. This support must be carefully managed to avoid provoking China into military tensions, which could have far-reaching global impacts.
The Military Dimension: Rising Tensions and a Growing Arms Race
The military dimension of U.S.-China relations is increasingly defined by the rising competition over Taiwan, as China’s sophisticated military infrastructure—encompassing missile systems, naval fleets, and air capabilities—poses a significant threat to Taiwan’s defense. In response, the U.S. is likely to increase its military presence in the region, enhancing alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and ramping up military readiness to prepare for any potential conflict over Taiwan.
However, this must be balanced carefully to avoid tensions to an irreversible point. The continuation of American military support for Taiwan brings the risk of an arms race in the Taiwan Strait, with both nations engaging in provocative military maneuvers.
The Domestic Factor: Political Calculations in Washington and Beijing
The Taiwan issue remains a pivotal element in U.S. politics, with rising Chinese influence pushing American leaders to adopt a stronger stance in support of Taiwan. Bipartisan support for Taiwan’s security has been growing, with both Democrats and Republicans accepting the need to resist Chinese aggression. However, this also risks escalating the conflict, particularly if Taiwan becomes a flashpoint for a larger U.S.-China confrontation.
In China, President Xi Jinping’s political legitimacy is closely tied to the issue. The Communist Party’s narrative embraces reunification as a core national goal, and as China’s political system remains firmly centralized under Xi, Taiwan’s future will continue to be a key element of the country’s foreign policy. This dynamic creates a high-stakes environment where domestic political calculations in both Washington and Beijing could significantly impact the stability of the region.
The Bottom Line: Strategic Competition with High Stakes
As the U.S. and China continue to vie for influence in the 21st century, Taiwan will remain a critical issue in their rivalry. For the U.S., Taiwan represents a microcosm of broader geopolitical struggles, including the defense of democracy and the maintenance of a rules-based international order. For China, Taiwan is seen as a historical and territorial matter of paramount importance.
