On a quiet morning in the South China Sea, a Philippine patrol vessel detected an incoming object, fast, low-flying, and headed straight for its position. Within seconds, alarms blare. The ship scrambles to respond, but in this simulated drill, it’s already too late. Manila is rushing to improve its missile capabilities for just this reason. It is turning to India for solutions rather than the United States or Europe.
The BrahMos supersonic cruise missile was just the beginning. As tensions with China escalate over disputed waters and gray-zone tactics, the Philippines is now exploring even more Indian missile systems. From air defense to advanced anti-ship capabilities, Manila sees India as a key partner in its urgent push to modernize its military and deter future aggression. With shared geopolitical interests and battle-proven technology, India’s missile arsenal could be the game-changer the Philippines needs in the Indo-Pacific’s high-stakes power struggle.
The Philippines’ Military Modernization: A Response to Chinese Assertiveness
On a cloudy afternoon in early 2023, a Philippine coast guard vessel patrolling near Scarborough Shoal found itself blinded by a military-grade laser from a Chinese coast guard ship. It wasn’t the first provocation, Filipino fishermen have faced water cannons, ramming incidents, and swarms of Chinese maritime militia in their own territorial waters. With China rapidly expanding its military presence on artificial islands and pushing deeper into the South China Sea, Manila has realized that diplomatic protests alone won’t protect its sovereignty. The response? A massive military modernization effort aimed at building a credible deterrent.
The BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, developed by India and Russia, is the centerpiece of the Philippines’ new anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy. Capable of reaching speeds of Mach 3 (three times the speed of sound) and striking targets up to 300 km away, BrahMos provides Manila with a weapon that can cripple enemy warships before they get close. In 2022, the Philippines signed a $375 million deal for a shore-based BrahMos system, with deliveries expected by 2025. Given the increasing tensions with China, discussions about expanding this arsenal are already underway.
To strike naval threats, the Philippines also recognizes the need for air defense. To counter China’s frequent aerial patrols near its airspace, Manila is now eyeing the Akash surface-to-air missile system from India. With a 25 km range, the Akash can track 64 targets at once and engage 12 simultaneously, providing a crucial shield against fighter jets, drones, and potential missile attacks. A $200 million deal is reportedly in the works, adding another layer of defense to Manila’s growing missile network.
Strategic Rationale: The Need for an Asymmetric Edge
The Philippines knows it cannot match China’s military power conventionally. Instead, it is adopting an asymmetric warfare strategy, much like Taiwan’s approach to deterring a Chinese invasion. By focusing on highly mobile, long-range precision strike systems, Manila aims to increase the cost of aggression for Beijing. This strategy is especially relevant given China’s militarization of Mischief Reef, which now hosts airstrips, missile batteries, and PLA garrisons within striking distance of Philippine waters.
Beyond external threats, growing domestic pressure is also driving this military buildup. The Philippine public, frustrated with years of unchecked Chinese aggression, is increasingly demanding a stronger national defense. A recent survey found that over 70% of Filipinos support military modernization, reflecting a shift in public sentiment towards a more assertive stance in defending the country’s territorial integrity.
Urgency and Drive: No Time to Waste
For decades, the Philippine military lagged behind its regional neighbors, relying on outdated aircraft and minimal naval assets. But that is changing fast. Manila is now pursuing modern fighter jets like the F-16 Viper, exploring submarine capabilities for the first time in its history, and expanding its mid-range missile arsenal. The goal is clear: turn the Philippines into a credible military force capable of defending its waters and deterring foreign incursions. With China escalating its presence in the South China Sea and pushing the limits of Philippine patience, Manila has no choice but to act, and this time, it is preparing to hit back.
Submarine Ambitions and Regional Partnerships
For an archipelagic nation like the Philippines, acquiring submarines is not just an upgrade, it is a strategic necessity. As China continues its gray zone tactics in the South China Sea, the ability to conduct covert maritime operations, track enemy vessels, and deter aggression beneath the waves is becoming increasingly critical. Recognizing this, General Romeo Brawner, Chief of Staff of the Philippine Army, has emphasized the need for at least two submarines to bolster the country’s maritime defense.
The Philippines is currently evaluating multiple suppliers for its first-ever submarine fleet. While France, Spain, and Italy have offered proposals, South Korea has emerged as the frontrunner. Seoul’s proven defense partnership with Manila, evident in past deals like the FA-50 light fighter jets, positions it as a trusted supplier. South Korea’s KSS-III diesel-electric submarines are seen as an affordable and reliable choice, aligning with the Philippines’ operational needs and budget constraints.
Beyond hardware, South Korea’s geopolitical alignment with the Philippines is strengthening. Manila is increasingly engaging with Washington’s Indo-Pacific coalition, and Seoul’s inclusion in this framework would further reinforce regional security efforts. There is growing speculation that South Korea could formally join the “Squad” a term used to describe the deepening security ties between the Philippines, U.S., Japan, and Australia. This would not only enhance intelligence-sharing and joint exercises but could also pave the way for a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) between Manila and Seoul, allowing South Korean naval assets to operate in Philippine waters.
However, South Korea’s domestic political climate could influence its willingness to deepen military commitments. Upcoming elections and shifting defense priorities in Seoul might alter the scope of its security cooperation with the Philippines. If political leadership in South Korea becomes more inward-focused, potential submarine deals and broader military engagements could face delays.
Challenges: Budget, Politics, and Technical Concerns
Despite the strong rationale for submarine acquisition, budget constraints remain a major hurdle. The Philippines is already investing heavily in missile defense, fighter jets, and naval modernization, making submarines a costly addition. With the June 2025 congressional elections approaching, any large-scale defense deal could become politically sensitive, especially if opposition parties question the affordability of such an investment.
Another consideration is India’s role in submarine space. While New Delhi has been a key defense partner in missile systems, concerns persist over its technical expertise in submarine construction. If the Philippines ever considers diversifying suppliers or seeking Indian collaboration, issues related to training, maintenance, and operational reliability could arise.
Despite these challenges, submarines represent the next major leap in the Philippines’ military modernization. Whether through South Korea, France, or another supplier, Manila is making it clear: it intends to defend its waters, not just from the sky and surface, but from the depths as well.
For decades, India was one of the world’s largest arms importers, relying heavily on Russia, France, and Israel for its defense needs. But today, the narrative is changing. New Delhi has rapidly transformed into a major arms exporter, supplying advanced weaponry to nations seeking to counterbalance China’s growing military footprint. This shift is not just about economics, it’s a geopolitical play that aligns with India’s strategic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
India’s defense exports have seen a massive surge since 2020, particularly in missile systems, naval technology, and defense electronics. In 2024, India’s arms exports exceeded $2.4 billion, marking a significant leap from previous years. Much of this growth comes from nations wary of Chinese aggression, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia, all of whom are strengthening their military ties with India.
A prime example is the BrahMos supersonic missile deal with the Philippines, worth $375 million, India’s largest-ever defense export contract. With further discussions on expanding missile sales and potential submarine technology transfers, India is solidifying its role as a trusted supplier in the Indo-Pacific defense market.
Strategic and Economic Interests: Beyond Business
India’s rise as a defense exporter is not just about boosting its economy, it’s also a direct response to China’s growing military assertiveness. The 2020 border clash between Indian and Chinese forces in Ladakh marked a turning point, pushing New Delhi to accelerate its defense production, reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, and strengthen military partnerships with like-minded nations.
Beyond countering China, India is expanding its influence in the Indo-Pacific, actively engaging in joint military drills with ASEAN nations, deepening ties with QUAD partners, and providing weapons to nations seeking alternatives to Western or Chinese arms.
One notable shift in India’s military focus is its increasing investment in submarine capabilities. With the Indian Navy prioritizing new submarine acquisitions and indigenous development, India is positioning itself as a future supplier of submarine technology to friendly nations, potentially even the Philippines. While challenges remain, such as technical expertise and maintenance infrastructure, India’s growing defense industry is reshaping the regional balance of power, one export at a time.
Beneath the waves of the Indo-Pacific, China is waging a silent arms race, advancing its underwater warfare and surveillance capabilities in ways that could reshape the region’s security dynamics. From mysterious submarine projects to a vast underwater sensor network, Beijing is making bold moves to dominate the depths—and nations like the Philippines are taking notice.
Satellite imagery and naval intelligence reports suggest that China is secretly constructing a new class of submarines at its Guangzhou shipyards. Details remain scarce, but speculation is rife that this could be an AI-driven, unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) designed to operate autonomously, enhancing China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy. If true, such developments could significantly complicate regional defense strategies. An AI-powered UUV would give China the ability to patrol strategic waterways, conduct intelligence gathering, and even deploy underwater mines, all without risking human crews. This could escalate tensions in contested areas like the South China Sea, where China has already militarized artificial islands and harassed Filipino vessels.
China’s ambitions don’t stop at submarines. Beijing is also constructing a vast underwater surveillance network, often dubbed the “Great Underwater Wall”, modeled after the U.S. Cold War-era Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS). This system, comprising a network of underwater sensors, drones, and sonar arrays, is designed to track enemy submarines, monitor ship movements, and control key maritime chokepoints.
However, while technically advanced, China’s network faces major challenges. Unlike the U.S., which built SOSUS with the cooperation of allies, Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the region has alienated potential partners. Countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia remain wary of Chinese maritime ambitions, making it difficult for China to establish a truly integrated surveillance system. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies are reviving their own underwater monitoring capabilities, aiming to counteract China’s growing dominance in the deep.
China’s underwater advancements reflect a broader technological shift in modern warfare, one where AI-powered drones, autonomous submarines, and real-time data processing are becoming the new battlefield. The ability to deploy unmanned underwater assets not only enhances China’s surveillance capabilities but also reduces the risks of direct confrontation, making covert operations more effective and harder to detect.
With the rise of AI-driven underwater warfare, nations like the Philippines, Japan, and Australia must adapt quickly. The growing reliance on autonomous systems, sensor networks, and next-generation submarines means that the Indo-Pacific is entering a new era of naval competition, where control of the underwater domain could determine the balance of power in the region.
Regional Security Implications: A Region in Transition
The Indo-Pacific is undergoing a seismic shift in military modernization, as regional powers race to counter China’s growing assertiveness. The Philippines, once reliant on external security guarantees, is now aggressively bolstering its defense capabilities, acquiring advanced missiles, fighter jets, and submarines to deter maritime threats. India, once known primarily as an arms importer, has transformed into a key defense supplier, strengthening its strategic ties with nations like the Philippines through arms deals and military cooperation. Meanwhile, China is spearheading next-generation underwater warfare, integrating AI-driven submarines, surveillance networks, and autonomous naval systems to solidify its control over contested waters.
As maritime tensions reach new heights, the Indo-Pacific is becoming an arena of competing strategies and power plays. The growing militarization of the region underscores the critical importance of alliances and defense partnerships—with the Philippines deepening ties with the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia to counterbalance China’s expanding influence. The stakes have never been higher, and the unfolding security dynamics suggest that the next battles in this geopolitical chess game may be fought beneath the waves, in the contested depths of the South China Sea.
Final Thought: The Future of Indo-Pacific Security
The race for military and technological supremacy in the Indo-Pacific is intensifying. As the Philippines, India, and the U.S. strengthen their security ties, and China doubles down on underwater dominance, the stakes have never been higher. In this evolving chess game, the key question remains: Will deterrence be enough to prevent conflict, or are we heading toward an inevitable clash beneath the waves?
