The post-World War II international order is unraveling as conflicts emerge across the globe. We are witnessing the rapid formation of a multipolar world, characterized by power struggles and geopolitical realignments. One of the most volatile flashpoints in this new global landscape is the South China Sea, a vital maritime corridor fraught with escalating tensions and territorial disputes. The region’s significance, both strategically and economically, raises a critical question: Is war imminent in the South China Sea?
Historical Context
The South China Sea, a semi-enclosed sea bordered by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, has long been a region of contestation. The disputes primarily revolve around territorial claims, with several countries asserting sovereignty over various islands, reefs, and maritime zones. China’s claims, delineated by the controversial nine-dash line, encompass approximately 90% of the South China Sea, overlapping with claims by other nations. Historically, these disputes have roots in colonial-era maps and international agreements. The ambiguity of these historical documents has left room for conflicting interpretations, fueling modern-day tensions. The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) sought to clarify maritime boundaries, but it did not resolve the overlapping claims in the South China Sea. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines, invalidating China’s extensive claims. However, China rejected the ruling, continuing its activities in the region. As Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, stated, “China’s rejection of the ruling has set a dangerous precedent that undermines international law.”
The Current Situation
Today, the South China Sea is a theater of intense geopolitical competition. China’s rapid militarization of artificial islands, aggressive maritime patrols, and extensive fishing activities have alarmed neighboring countries and the international community. These actions have prompted a range of responses, from diplomatic protests to increased military presence by other claimant states and external powers, notably the United States. Admiral John C. Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, remarked, “China’s activities in the South China Sea threaten the sovereignty of other nations and undermine regional stability.”
China–Philippines Tensions
In July 2024, China and the Philippines held a crucial meeting to ease escalating tensions after a confrontation in the disputed South China Sea resulted in injuries to Filipino navy personnel and damage to two military boats. This incident heightened fears of a wider conflict involving Manila’s treaty ally, the United States.
Joint Exercise by China and Russia
In July 2024, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the Russian Navy conducted a joint exercise called “Joint Sea 2024” near Zhanjiang, China. The drills included joint live-fire air and missile defense exercises, showcasing the growing military cooperation between China and Russia in the region.
Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR) Exercise
In Hawaii, the HADR phase of the Rim of the Pacific 2024 exercise concluded, involving nine countries, including the U.S., Japan, Canada, and South Korea. This exercise covered urban search and rescue, healthcare emergency management, and logistical support for humanitarian assistance, highlighting the importance of multinational cooperation in addressing non-military challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Perils of Escalation
Excessive armament and defense posturing in the South China Sea have reached dangerous levels, creating a volatile environment where a minor incident could escalate into a full-scale conflict.
Arms Race
China’s military expansion in the South China Sea remains a critical concern. Recent developments include the construction of artificial islands equipped with airstrips, missile systems, and other military infrastructure. These actions allow China to project power across the maritime region, challenging the freedom of navigation and sovereignty of neighboring claimant nations. In response, its neighbors in the SCS region have boosted their defense budgets and acquired advanced naval and aerial capabilities. The Philippines has prioritized defense spending to address regional challenges. In 2024, the defense budget reached $4.5 billion (USD), a substantial increase. After two decades of efforts, the country is close to finalizing negotiations with Sweden to acquire fighter jets. The specific choice remains undisclosed, but Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen is among the top contenders. It also acquired the BrahMos supersonic anti-ship cruise missile system. The BrahMos missile system has a range of 290 km and a speed of Mach 2.8-3, providing a never-before-seen capability to the AFP. It will greatly enhance the Philippines’ coastal defense capabilities.
Additionally, the Philippine government has approved a substantial budget for its decade-long defense acquisition plan called “Horizon 3.” This initiative aims to enhance domain awareness, connectivity, maritime and aerial deterrence, command and control, and intelligence capabilities. The fighter jet requirements have evolved, but exact details on the total number and cost remain undisclosed. These efforts reflect the Philippines’ commitment to safeguarding its interests in the region and effectively addressing security challenges. Over the past decade, Japan has undergone a significant transformation in its defense and security policies. It aims to double its defense spending by 2027, signaling a proactive approach to security challenges. The budget increase is driven by growing concerns over Russian, Chinese, and North Korean activities in the region. Japan is shifting from a purely defensive posture to one that emphasizes readiness for combat. Recent changes in its defense spending include acquiring long-range missiles capable of striking enemy territory. It shows that the traditional model of U.S.-Japanese military cooperation, where Japan acted as a “shield” and the U.S. as the “spear,” is evolving.
Indonesia is bolstering its security posture in the South China Sea due to increased Chinese incursions into its exclusive economic zone. The Indonesian military is expanding capacity for sustained deployments around the Natuna Islands, establishing military bases in the region. Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s next president, is unlikely to alter this trajectory, given his previous role as Jokowi’s defense minister. Additionally, Jakarta’s interest in procuring YJ-12E missiles aligns with its plan to enhance coastal defense and deter maritime incursions in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the South China Sea. These developments reflect Indonesia’s concerns about China’s assertive claims in the area.
Vietnam’s modernization efforts prioritize several key areas, including the enhancement of artillery systems, missile defense capabilities, and the expansion of its military aircraft inventory. Notably, Vietnam has planned to procure 12 units of Su-57 aircraft from Russia, a move aimed at bolstering its aerial combat capabilities. By integrating Su-57s alongside its existing fleet of Su-27 and Su-30 multi-role aircraft, Vietnam demonstrates a strong commitment to modernizing its Air Force inventory. Vietnam’s dedication to modernizing its defense capabilities underscores its determination to deter hostile forces in the region. As one of the fastest-growing countries in Southeast Asia in terms of defense investment, Vietnam is actively strengthening its military readiness. This regional arms race heightens the risk of unintentional clashes that could escalate into broader conflicts. The presence of advanced missile systems, warships, and aircraft increases the potential for deadly encounters.
Defense Deals and Alliances
The recent defense pact between Germany and the Philippines represents a significant milestone in their bilateral relations. Its purpose is to enhance defense cooperation, allowing joint military exercises, training, and information sharing. Against the backdrop of China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, the Philippines seeks to strengthen its defense capabilities. Germany’s involvement underscores its commitment to a rules-based international order and freedom of navigation. Economically, the pact opens avenues for technology transfer, equipment procurement, and capacity-building. Beyond bilateral ties, this strategic partnership aligns with regional security dynamics, emphasizing the importance of Indo-Pacific stability and cooperation among like-minded nations. Additionally, other international arrangements such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) pact signify a growing coalition of countries concerned with maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad, comprising the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, focuses on promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific through military cooperation, joint exercises, and economic initiatives. AUKUS, meanwhile, enhances defense ties, particularly in developing nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, thereby boosting the region’s deterrence capabilities against potential Chinese aggression.
The United States Factor
The United States remains a pivotal player in the South China Sea, acting as a key security guarantor for many surrounding states.
Security Guarantees
The U.S. has longstanding security commitments to allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Through mutual defense treaties and security agreements, the U.S. provides military support and conducts joint exercises to enhance regional defense capabilities. This presence serves as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence and assertiveness. Admiral Philip S. Davidson, former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, emphasized, “Our commitment to our allies and partners in the region is unwavering. We stand ready to ensure peace and stability.”
Military Drills
The U.S. conducts regular Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea, challenging China’s expansive maritime claims. These operations involve U.S. naval vessels sailing through disputed waters to uphold international law and ensure open sea lanes. Additionally, the U.S. engages in extensive military drills with regional allies, showcasing its readiness to defend its interests and those of its partners. As of 2024, the U.S. military conducted 107 large-scale exercises in the South China Sea and its surrounding areas, involving countries like Japan, the UK, India, France, Canada, and Germany. These exercises demonstrate the U.S. commitment to regional security and its strategic goal of preventing any single power, particularly China, from dominating the Eastern Hemisphere.
Strategic Ambitions
The U.S. aims to maintain its status as the world’s preeminent superpower by preventing any single nation, particularly China, from dominating the Eastern Hemisphere. This involves a delicate balance of deterrence and diplomatic engagement. U.S. global engagements, from Europe to the Middle East, reflect its broader strategy of preserving a favorable balance of power and safeguarding international norms. Upholding international norms, including UNCLOS, ensures a level playing field. Rather than framing it solely as competition, the focus is on advancing a rules-based order. By doing so, the U.S. shields its allies and partners from unilateral actions, reinforcing regional stability.
Implications of Middle Eastern Conflicts
The potential implications of a regional conflict in the Middle East on the South China Sea (SCS) are multifaceted. Although these two regions are geographically distant, their interconnectedness can shape global dynamics in significant ways. A significant conflict in the Middle East, such as one arising from the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, could divert U.S. attention, resources, and military assets away from the Indo-Pacific region, including the SCS. The ramifications of such a diversion could be profound, leading to various strategic and geopolitical shifts in the South China Sea.
Power Vacuum
A diversion of U.S. focus to the Middle East could inadvertently create a power vacuum in the South China Sea. This power vacuum might embolden China to assert its influence more aggressively, taking advantage of the reduced American presence to further its territorial claims and military activities. This situation could be exacerbated by the fact that China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea are already a source of significant tension among regional claimants and the international community. Dr. Elizabeth Economy, a former senior foreign advisor for China, highlights the potential consequences of such a shift: “A diversion of U.S. resources to the Middle East could allow China to consolidate its gains in the South China Sea, potentially leading to a more aggressive posture that could destabilize the region further.” Regional actors, including other claimant nations such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, might recalibrate their strategies based on perceived shifts in U.S. commitment. This recalibration could lead to new alliances or realignments as countries seek to balance against China’s increased influence. Additionally, the potential for increased Chinese military activities and assertiveness could lead to miscalculations and unintended escalations, further complicating the security environment in the South China Sea.
Strategic Competition
China’s strategic competition in the South China Sea could intensify if U.S. attention is diverted to the Middle East. With U.S. military capabilities stretched thin, Beijing might seize the opportunity to solidify its control over disputed areas and expand its maritime presence. This could result in heightened regional tensions and a more assertive Chinese stance. Increased Chinese activities in the region could lead to heightened tensions among claimant states and the broader international community. This might prompt regional powers to bolster their military capabilities and form new alliances in response to perceived Chinese aggression. The potential for a renewed arms race and heightened strategic competition could further destabilize the South China Sea.
Regional Instability
The instability in the Middle East could have ripple effects on the South China Sea, complicating efforts to maintain peace and stability. The interconnected nature of global politics means that conflicts in one region can influence dynamics elsewhere, including the South China Sea. The potential for regional instability could exacerbate existing tensions and create new security dilemmas. The potential for increased instability in the South China Sea could lead to a greater likelihood of clashes between regional and external actors. This could further complicate diplomatic efforts and exacerbate existing disputes, making it more challenging to achieve a peaceful resolution to the South China Sea conflicts.
The Role of Regional Powers
Regional powers in the Indo-Pacific are pivotal in shaping the dynamics of the South China Sea. Their strategies, alliances, and policies significantly influence the overall stability of the region.
Australia’s Strategic Interests
Australia’s strategic posture in the South China Sea is guided by its commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The Australian government has consistently supported the principles of international law and freedom of navigation. In response to rising tensions, Australia has engaged in joint military exercises with the United States and regional allies, reinforcing its strategic presence. Dr. Andrew Shearer, former Director-General of the Office of National Assessments, notes, “Australia’s strategic interests in the South China Sea are deeply intertwined with our commitment to regional stability and the rules-based international order. We must work closely with our allies to ensure that international norms are upheld.” Australia’s involvement extends to diplomatic efforts as well. Australia has advocated for the peaceful resolution of disputes through multilateral forums and has supported initiatives that promote transparency and dialogue among claimant states.
India’s Role
India, though geographically distant, plays a crucial role in the South China Sea’s security landscape. As a key partner in the Quad, India contributes to regional security through strategic dialogues and joint exercises. India’s growing naval capabilities and its focus on maintaining maritime security in the Indo-Pacific align with its broader strategic interests. According to Dr. Rajiv Bhatia, former Indian diplomat, “India’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific, including the South China Sea, reflects our strategic interest in maintaining a balance of power and promoting a rules-based order. Our cooperation with regional partners is essential for ensuring stability and security in the region.” India’s maritime strategy includes expanding its naval presence and participating in joint naval exercises with other Quad members. This enhances its capacity to address security challenges and support regional stability.
Regional Diplomacy
Managing the South China Sea’s tensions requires a comprehensive approach that balances military deterrence with diplomatic engagement. Building trust among claimant nations, promoting dialogue, and adhering to international legal principles are essential to preventing conflict and ensuring long-term regional stability.
Multilateral Frameworks
Regional multilateral frameworks such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) play a crucial role in mediating disputes and fostering cooperation. The ASEAN-led Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit provide platforms for dialogue, confidence-building measures, and the development of a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea. Although progress has been slow, these forums are vital for maintaining open channels of communication and reducing the risk of conflict.
Bilateral Agreements
Bilateral agreements, such as the recent China-Philippines deal on the Scarborough Shoal, offer a pragmatic approach to managing specific disputes. While these agreements do not resolve broader territorial claims, they help to de-escalate tensions and prevent confrontations. Diplomatic efforts should focus on replicating such arrangements across other disputed areas. The China-Philippines agreement demonstrates a pragmatic approach to managing disputes while preserving broader strategic interests, ultimately reducing the risk of conflicts when faithfully implemented.
The Economic Dimension
The South China Sea’s economic significance cannot be overstated. It is a global trade route, with approximately $3.37 trillion worth of trade passing through its waters annually. This includes vital energy supplies, such as oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), which are crucial for the economies of many countries. A report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlights that the South China Sea is a critical route for energy shipments, with around 40% of global LNG trade transiting through the region. Any disruption to this route, whether due to conflict or heightened tensions, would have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. China’s role as the “world’s factory” means that any conflict could disrupt supply chains, affecting everything from electronics to consumer goods. Moreover, Taiwan is a key supplier of semiconductors, essential for modern technology. Disruptions here would have cascading effects on industries worldwide, from automotive to consumer electronics. Japan, South Korea, and other regional economies would also face significant challenges, further exacerbating global economic instability.
Long-Term Scenarios and Humanitarian Implications
The long-term scenarios for the South China Sea are influenced by various factors, including geopolitical shifts, economic trends, and evolving strategic dynamics.
Potential Scenarios
Several scenarios could unfold in the South China Sea, ranging from continued diplomatic stalemate and low-level skirmishes to more serious military confrontations. The trajectory will depend on the actions of key stakeholders, including China, regional claimants, and major global powers. The outcome of the South China Sea disputes will have far-reaching implications for regional and global security. A stable resolution could reinforce the rules-based international order and promote cooperative security frameworks. Conversely, continued tensions or conflict could undermine regional stability and impact global trade and security.
Humanitarian Costs
The South China Sea region is densely populated, home to approximately 1.4 billion people. Any conflict would result in severe humanitarian crises, including displacement, loss of livelihoods, and deteriorating living conditions. The international community would be called upon to provide substantial humanitarian aid and support to mitigate these impacts. The World Food Programme (WFP) has highlighted the potential humanitarian impacts of conflict in densely populated areas. “Conflicts in heavily populated regions can lead to widespread humanitarian crises, including food insecurity and displacement. The South China Sea is no exception, and the international community must be prepared to respond to potential humanitarian needs,” says WFP spokesperson David Beasley.
End Note
The South China Sea remains one of the most contentious and strategically significant regions in the world. As claimant states and global powers navigate this complex landscape, the imperative for diplomatic engagement, legal adherence, and strategic cooperation remains paramount. The collective efforts of regional and global actors will shape the future of the South China Sea, influencing not only the stability of the Indo-Pacific but also the broader international order. The path forward requires a commitment to dialogue, respect for international law, and a shared vision for a stable and secure maritime environment. As the international community grapples with the challenges posed by the South China Sea, the principles of cooperation and adherence to global norms will be crucial in averting conflict and fostering a peaceful resolution. As the former Secretary of State expressed, the South China Sea serves as a critical test for the international community. It challenges our ability to uphold a rules-based order while ensuring that all nations can pursue their interests peacefully and in accordance with international law. By prioritizing diplomacy, fostering cooperation, and upholding international norms, the global community can work towards a stable and secure future for the South China Sea, ensuring that it remains a conduit for peace, prosperity, and mutual respect among nations.
