A Brief
Geopolitical tensions have long plagued the Middle East, with recent developments sparking concerns of a full-scale war. Various factors, including political unrest, economic challenges, and religious and ethnic conflicts, have contributed to increased regional tensions. The Middle East is indeed edging closer to a wider regional conflict, as noted by Julian Borger, the international affairs editor at The Guardian. The struggle for regional dominance among major powers has escalated proxy warfare and exacerbated tensions, heightening the risk of conflict. Central to these tensions is the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, rooted in deep-seated historical, religious, and territorial disputes. Recent military operations, attacks and counterattacks have further inflamed the situation, raising fears that the conflict could destabilize neighboring nations. As global attention remains fixed on the Middle East, understanding the complexities of the Israel-Hamas conflict and its broader implications is paramount in assessing the region’s stability and the potential for wider conflict.
“While Rome finally collapsed at the end of the Roman Empire, all of Europe was ravaged by nearly a thousand years of strife and conflict. Unfortunately, the crisis resulting from the defeat of the Ottoman Empire so many decades ago will no doubt linger on for many many decades to come.” David Fromkin’s book “A Peace to End All Peace”
Situation in Gaza
There are important events that could lead to a full-blown war in the Middle East, and the situation in Gaza is presently a major cause of concern due to the ongoing battles in Khan Younis. The high death toll, ongoing combat in Khan Younis, US intelligence estimates of militant losses in Hamas, and the rejection of a hostage-release deal by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are the essential issues to examine. Tragically, many have lost their lives as a result of the fierce fighting in Gaza. As Israeli forces marched into western Khan Younis in Gaza’s bloodiest combat yet, Palestinian sources said that they encircled and bombed two hospitals, impeding trauma treatment for the wounded.
US intelligence indicates significant losses for Hamas. According to US intelligence, only around 20% of Hamas militants have been killed since the Israeli attack on Gaza started on October 7. These figures, which are the first since the conflict, are inadequate, despite Israel’s claim of “destroying” the Palestinian group that controlled the Gaza Strip prior to its most recent assault. When asked about Hamas’ ability to fight Israeli forces and shoot rockets “for months,” the Wall Street Journal quoted an intelligence assessment from December 2023. Israeli authorities have estimated 16,000 wounded Hamas fighters, with half of them probably not coming back to battle, according to the story.
The issue is complicated by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s rejection of a hostage-release plan. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Hamas’s ceasefire and hostage release requests, which would have left Hamas in control of Gaza and Israel out of the fight. Such a plan reflects hardened stances and a reluctance to negotiate. This position raises concerns about escalation and the difficulty of resolving the crisis.
Houthis Attack in the Red Sea
In the Red Sea, International maritime traffic and regional stability are threatened by Houthi attacks on commercial and military boats. Houthi forces spokesman Yahya Sare said the latest launches were in “continued support and solidarity with the Palestinian people.” After Israel’s Gaza invasion, the group threatened to attack ships of Israel.
“Today 50,000 to 60,000 commercial ships move through the oceans with 5000 military ships, piracy, militant attacks, and the pollution associated with shipping are the biggest concern of the day” Admiral James Stavirid’s book “SEA POWER: THE HISTORY AND GEOPOLITICS OF THE WORLD’S OCEANS”
The Houthis are an armed political and religious group that champions Yemen’s Shia Muslim minority, the Zaidis. They declare themselves to be part of the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” against Israel, the US, and the wider West – along with armed groups such as Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement. The group emerged in the 1990s and takes its name from the movement’s late founder, Hussein al-Houthi. The current leader is Abdul Malik al-Houthi. In the early 2000s, the Houthis fought a series of rebellions against Yemen’s authoritarian, Ali Abdullah Saleh, in an attempt to win greater autonomy for the group’s homeland in the north of Yemen.
According to a senior US military officer, Iranian-backed Houthis have attacked 14 nautical and commercial vessels in the Red Sea at least 100 times in the past 30 days. In response to the strikes, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a coalition of at least eleven nations to secure the Red Sea.
Potential Implications for Regional Maritime Security:
The marine security of the region is greatly affected by the attacks in the Red Sea. Given this waterway’s strategic importance, any disturbance to it might trigger a domino effect on international trade and energy supply. More strikes might escalate regional tensions, prompting stricter security measures and perhaps even the militarization of the Red Sea.
Vessel attacks make us wonder how susceptible marine infrastructure is and how urgent it is to work together to protect global commercial corridors. Both regional and international stakeholders are worried about the possible financial consequences of ongoing attacks on the Red Sea’s maritime traffic.
International Response and Concerns about the Houthis’ Actions:
The international community is alarmed about the Houthi Red Sea attacks. The rising violence and the risk of regional conflict have alarmed governments and international organizations. The United Nations Security Council passed resolution 2722 (2024) on January 10, 2024, denouncing the attacks by the Houthis and demanding an end to them. The resolution also reaffirmed the right to freedom of navigation and highlighted the existing arms embargo against the Houthis. China and Russia remained absent, who believed that a truce should be pursued instead of a US response that could escalate the Israel-Hamas conflict. Several US and UK lawmakers voted in favor of the measure.
Multiple governments have demanded that the Houthis end their violence in their statements. Notable among the 44 states that “condemned Houthi interference” with freedom of navigation in December 2023 were NATO and EU countries. The United Kingdom, the United States, Bahrain, Germany, and Japan were among thirteen states that released a supplementary declaration on January 3, 2024. “We will hold malign actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks” in the Red Sea, the government stated.
Hostage Situation and Diplomatic Efforts
The Palestinian militant group Hamas is holding a large number of captives, which is adding fuel to the fire. More recently, a number of hostages were released. However, the hostage situation is dire and painful for the families and hostages themselves. The United States, Qatar, and Egypt are among the major regional and international actors that have been actively involved in the hostage negotiations. These nations have played significant roles as mediators in the talks between the warring factions. Participation of multiple countries in the talks is indicative of the situation’s complexity and the acknowledgement of the necessity of a multilateral strategy for reaching a settlement.
With its diplomatic clout, the US has been trying to open lines of communication and even negotiate a solution. As regional powers with connections to different groups, Egypt and Qatar each bring unique viewpoints and bargaining power to the table. A peaceful resolution to the hostage crisis is of the utmost importance.
Escalation in Lebanon and Syria
The escalation in Lebanon and Syria, particularly involving Israeli airstrikes in south Lebanon and the death of Hezbollah members has threatened the peace and stability of the Middle East. In June 2023, tensions between Israel and Lebanon intensified following the erection of Hezbollah tents and amidst claims by Hezbollah that Israel was constructing a wall on the Lebanese part of Ghajar, a village divided by the UN-drawn “Blue Line,” which serves as the de facto border between Israel, Lebanon, and the Golan Heights. Ghajar, initially designated to be divided between Lebanon and Israel, had been fully occupied by Israel in 2006. The presence of Hezbollah tents inside the Shebaa Farms and the Kfar Chouba Hills, areas disputed between Israel and Lebanon, prompted Israel to lodge a complaint with the United Nations. Israeli media reported the removal of one tent by Hezbollah, although the group did not officially confirm this action.
Simultaneously, Lebanese officials raised concerns about Israel’s construction of a wall around Ghajar. Lebanon warned that Israel’s actions could lead to the annexation of the northern part of the village into the Israeli-controlled area. This situation added to the existing tensions, reflecting the complex territorial disputes and longstanding animosities in the region.
Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah in south Lebanon have shaken the entire region. On December 27, 2023, an Israeli airstrike damaged two vehicles near a Lebanese army checkpoint in south Lebanon, killing a Hezbollah member and a woman and wounding many others. An Israeli push toward targeted executions in Lebanon surfaced after more than three months of near-daily border fighting with Hezbollah fighters during the Gaza crisis.
Historically, Hezbollah has been a regional power and Iran’s partner. Israel-Hezbollah enmity has increased after one of its members died, sparking concerns about a broader conflict.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the peacekeeping force stationed along the border, has announced its investigation into the incidents. Describing the current situation as extremely severe, UNIFIL has issued a plea for all parties involved to refrain from any actions that might contribute to the escalation of tensions in any form.
Worsening Situation in Syria
Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, which marked the ascendance of religious hardliners to power, Iranian leaders have consistently advocated for the elimination of Israel. Iran rejects Israel’s legitimacy, viewing it as an illegitimate occupier of Muslim land. Iran’s involvement in supporting the Syrian government has expanded significantly, with the dispatch of thousands of fighters and military advisers. Israel has always been concerned about potential covert efforts by Iran to supply weapons to Syria, which pose a threat to Israel.
Meanwhile, Five IRGC members were murdered in Syria in a raid on 20th January 2024. The loss of IRGC members has complicated regional politics. Iran vows to retaliate against Israel after the Lebanon and Syria crises. Israel has not confirmed its involvement in the assaults; therefore, its reaction is unknown. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani called the strike an attempt to promote instability in the area.
US Involvement and Tensions in Western Iraq
Twenty years after the U.S. invaded Iraq — in blinding explosions of shock and awe — American forces remain in the country in what has become a small but consistent presence to ensure a check on probable militancy. Simultaneously, six years after the war against the Islamic State, Iraq still faces significant challenges in its recovery. Over a million people remain internally displaced, 4.1 million people need humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction is projected to cost at least $88 billion. An already unstable situation has become much worse as a result of attacks on air bases by the Islamic Resistance, injuries sustained by the US and Iraqi troops at the hands of militants backed by Iran, and general deterioration in ties between the US, Iraq, and Iran. Militants backed by Iran wounded US and Iraqi forces in western Iraq, marking a major episode in the Middle East. As a result of Iran’s backing for militia groups that oppose the US occupation in Iraq, this strike is symptomatic of the long-standing proxy wars in the area. Combat casualties heighten geopolitical tensions and highlight the complex network of alliances and rivalries, both of which contribute to heightened security concerns.
An air base in western Iraq was attacked by the Islamic Resistance, an organization with apparent links to Iranian interests. On January 12, 2024, a militia backed by Iran launched rockets and ballistic missiles against the American-occupied Al Asad airbase, according to the US Central Command. The attack wounded one Iraqi soldier. The attack on the base was claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the group was created in late 2023 by a number of Iraqi military groupings with ties to Iran.
Assessment of Middle East Stability
The obvious causes of instability are right there. The majority of the area is either coping with violent extremism or experiencing some kind of internal strife. The Arab Spring of 2011 has sparked violent conflicts that will, even after the fighting stops, at most, pose long-term obstacles to peace and progress. Negotiated settlement remains vague due to escalating tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, growing political obstacles on both sides and emerging military dangers posed by Iran and Hezbollah.
“We need international maritime cooperation and improved international treaties on maritime laws including regulations and more protective waters. Admiral James Stavirid’s book “SEA POWER: THE HISTORY AND GEOPOLITICS OF THE WORLD’S OCEANS”
Many of the countries in the region suffer from a combination of issues, including corrupt and self-serving elites, inadequate or nonexistent economic development, difficulties finding and keeping a job, threats to national unity and instability from growing populations, and increasing extremism.
Taken as a whole, the lack of a straightforward method to estimate or forecast the degree of stability in any particular nation, much alone the area, becomes abundantly evident. If we try to generalize about the Arab world or the MENA region based on a single set of characteristics—which vary considerably even between nearby countries—we will miss the big picture. There are just too many variables at play here.
Additionally, as history has shown all too clearly, stability or instability can shift in an instant due to the acts of a specific figure or leader, interpersonal conflicts or capacities for cooperation, the missteps or interactions of specific players, interference from outside sources, the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of crisis management or warfare, and attention-grabbing catalytic events.
End Note
To conclude, the Middle East is at a crossroads, flirting with conflict, as of 2024. Multiple geopolitical, historical, and socioeconomic forces are straining the region’s stability. Escalating war in Gaza, attacks in western Iraq, and the attack on transit ships in the Red Sea have raised tensions and instability. Hamas hostages, the Israel-Hamas conflict, Red Sea Houthi attacks, and other regional developments have produced a fragile web of interconnected problems. All of these incidents have exacerbated rivalries and strained diplomatic relations, raising concerns about a wider and more catastrophic conflict. Events are shaped by regional powers like the US, Iran, and Israel. Foreign parties like Qatar, Egypt, and international organizations demonstrate the region’s instability’s global impact. Traditional tensions and unresolved grudges worsen the situation and could lead to war. The region’s history of rising tensions and outright confrontations makes each episode a potential ignition point for further conflict. Collaboration to address conflict’s root causes, promote understanding, and promote sustainable peace has never been more important for the international community. Despite the hurdles, diplomatic interventions can prevent a full-scale war in the Middle East. The global community must act quickly and decisively to avoid a regional disaster.
