The U.S.-Philippines relationship, spanning over a century, remains a cornerstone of both countries’ strategic and economic interests in Southeast Asia. The alliance, rooted in historical ties dating back to the American colonization of the Philippines in 1898, has evolved through different geopolitical eras, from the Cold War to the rise of China. Under former President Donald Trump, U.S.-Philippines relations saw continuity in defense and security cooperation, but new complexities emerged in areas like trade and climate change. With President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. now leading the Philippines, the relationship continues to adapt to changing global dynamics, setting the stage for future shifts, particularly if Trump were to return to the presidency in 2024.
Historical Foundations and the Evolution of Defense Cooperation
The U.S.-Philippines alliance has historically been anchored in defense agreements, starting with the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) of 1951, which cemented the commitment of both nations to come to each other’s aid in case of an armed attack. This treaty has been the backbone of U.S. military presence in the region, alongside other agreements like the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) of 2014.
During the Cold War, the Philippines served as a critical ally for the U.S., hosting major military installations like Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Station, which were vital to projecting U.S. power across the Pacific. Although these bases were closed in the early 1990s, the U.S. continued to engage with the Philippines through joint military exercises, arms sales, and rotational troop deployments. The signing of EDCA revitalized this relationship by allowing U.S. forces access to Philippine military bases, further deepening defense cooperation.
Trump’s Approach: Pragmatic Assertiveness and Unilateralism
Under Donald Trump, U.S. foreign policy was defined by a shift toward unilateralism, framed by the “America First” doctrine. While the broader policy landscape changed, the Trump administration’s approach to the Philippines maintained a strong defense partnership, particularly concerning China’s growing influence in the South China Sea. Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) continued to challenge China’s territorial claims, and the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to the MDT. In 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assured Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte that any armed attack on Philippine forces in the South China Sea would trigger U.S. obligations under the defense treaty.
However, Trump’s diplomacy was often transactional, using economic and military assistance as leverage for political concessions. Despite this, the military alliance between the two countries remained robust, largely driven by shared concerns over China’s aggressive posturing in the South China Sea. Trump’s administration made it clear that maintaining regional stability was a priority, even as he recalibrated U.S. alliances globally.
Economic Ties: Trade Surplus and Potential for Future Tariffs
Beyond security cooperation, economic relations between the U.S. and the Philippines are significant. The U.S. is one of the Philippines’ largest trading partners, and the Philippines enjoys a trade surplus with the U.S., exporting goods such as electronics, garments, and agricultural products. In 2022, Philippine exports to the U.S. amounted to over $11 billion, while imports stood at around $9 billion, resulting in a favorable trade balance for Manila.
A key concern for the Philippines under a potential second Trump administration would be the return of protectionist trade policies. Trump’s first term was marked by the imposition of tariffs on several countries, which affected global supply chains and created new trade dynamics. Another Trump tenure could potentially trigger a new wave of tariffs, though the Philippines might benefit in certain sectors, particularly if the U.S. seeks to diversify supply chains away from China. This could create opportunities for Philippine exporters, particularly in electronics and manufacturing, as the U.S. looks to strengthen economic ties with Southeast Asian nations that are not directly involved in the U.S.-China trade war.
Climate Change and Divergent Policies
One of the areas where Trump’s policy diverged significantly from the Philippines’ interests was on climate change. The Philippines, as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, has consistently advocated for stronger international cooperation on environmental issues. Trump’s skepticism toward climate science, epitomized by his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, strained this aspect of the U.S.-Philippines relationship.
Under Duterte, the Philippines remained committed to global climate action, though his administration often sought to balance environmental priorities with economic development. The lack of U.S. leadership on climate issues during Trump’s presidency was a missed opportunity for deeper cooperation. As the Philippines faces more frequent and severe natural disasters, collaboration on climate resilience and green energy initiatives is crucial for future bilateral relations.
The Marcos Administration: Navigating Old Alliances and New Realities
Since taking office in 2022, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has sought to strike a balance between maintaining strong ties with the U.S. and expanding relations with China. While Duterte had pursued a “pivot to China” policy, Marcos has recalibrated Manila’s approach, emphasizing the importance of the U.S. as a security partner while continuing to engage economically with Beijing.
Under Marcos, U.S.-Philippines defense cooperation has deepened further, particularly with the 2024 conclusion of new defense agreements that expand U.S. access to Philippine military facilities under the EDCA. These agreements were factored into the U.S. defense budget for 2024, underscoring the strategic importance Washington places on its alliance with Manila in countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. The EDCA not only enhances military readiness but also provides infrastructure improvements to Philippine bases, contributing to economic development in the host regions.
The Biden administration has reinforced these defense ties, but questions remain about how a potential second Trump term might alter the course of the relationship. While Trump previously upheld strong military relations, his unpredictable foreign policy style could introduce uncertainties. For instance, Trump might attempt to renegotiate existing agreements, as he did with other U.S. alliances, seeking to reduce U.S. financial contributions or increase demands for Philippine support in countering China.
The Future of U.S.-Philippines Relations
Looking ahead, U.S.-Philippines relations are likely to be shaped by both geopolitical competition and economic considerations. The strategic alliance will continue to focus on the South China Sea, where both nations share concerns about Chinese territorial ambitions. The U.S. will also remain a crucial economic partner for the Philippines, given the ongoing trade surplus and potential opportunities arising from supply chain diversification. Additionally, new defense agreements in 2024 have solidified the Philippines’ role in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, which will likely remain a priority regardless of changes in U.S. leadership.
However, the return of Donald Trump to the White House could bring significant changes. A second Trump administration might pursue a more transactional approach to defense and trade agreements, potentially seeking new tariffs or renegotiating military commitments. While the U.S. would likely maintain its focus on countering China’s influence in the region, the nature of its engagement with the Philippines could shift, with increased pressure on Manila to take a more active role in regional security.
Moreover, Trump’s skepticism toward multilateral agreements and climate change could complicate efforts to strengthen cooperation in these areas. The Philippines, which faces severe environmental challenges, might find itself at odds with a Trump administration unwilling to prioritize climate resilience initiatives. In this scenario, the Philippines could look to other international partners, such as the European Union or Japan, for collaboration on green energy and environmental sustainability.
Strategic Responses of the Philippines
In response to potential changes in U.S. leadership and its implications, the Philippines is likely to diversify its alliances. In order to balance its strategic objectives, it may increase its interaction with other major international powers, such as China, Japan, and the European Union (EU). Reducing over-reliance on the United States also means bolstering ASEAN ties. While keeping a strategic presence in international forums like ASEAN, the UN, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Philippines will concentrate on regional cooperation to secure economic stability and security.
To navigate changing relations with a potentially repositioning U.S. leadership, the Philippines will have to employ a diplomatic strategy that is subtle. This entails maintaining national security and fostering economic expansion while striking a balance with other great powers. China’s increasing influence in the region is being countered by the Philippines through a trilateral approach that includes actively strengthening its strategic ties with Japan and the US. The focus will be on keeping a diplomatic balance that advances both security and economic goals.
It is anticipated that the Philippine government will reevaluate its domestic policies in light of prospective changes in U.S. leadership. This include adjustments to economic planning, defense plans, and foreign policy. The goal of domestic changes will be to strengthen the nation’s ability to withstand and adjust to changes in the world economy. In order to maintain the nation’s security and economic viability in the face of shifting global dynamics, the Philippine National Security Policy emphasizes the necessity of a strong plan to handle both internal and external threats.
Conclusion
U.S.-Philippines relations, built on a shared history and strategic interests, continue to evolve in response to shifting global dynamics. Under Trump, the military alliance was strengthened, particularly in light of growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. However, divergences over trade and climate change introduced new complexities into the relationship. As the Marcos administration navigates its ties with both the U.S. and China, the future of U.S.-Philippines relations will hinge on balancing security, economic, and environmental priorities in an increasingly multipolar world.
With new defense agreements in place and trade opportunities on the horizon, the partnership remains critical for both nations. However, the potential for significant policy shifts under a second Trump administration underscores the uncertainty that lies ahead. The ability of both nations to adapt to these changes will determine the resilience and success of one of the oldest alliances in the Asia-Pacific.
