Introduction
Vietnam and the Philippines have recently signed significant agreements aimed at enhancing security in the disputed South China Sea. These agreements focused on bolstering cooperation in coastguard operations, maritime security, and trade, serve as a united response to assert sovereignty and ensure stability in the region. This development underscores the growing strategic partnership between the two Southeast Asian nations and is likely to unsettle China, which has laid expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea.
During a state visit by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Hanoi, the two countries signed agreements designed to improve information sharing, conduct joint patrols, and enhance capacity building for their coastguards. The measures, along with a five-year trade commitment to food security and plans by Vietnam’s largest conglomerate, VinFast, to establish a business network in the Philippines, highlight the increasing collaboration between Vietnam and the Philippines. This cooperative stance aims to address challenges posed by China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and signals a proactive approach to maintaining stability and economic prosperity in the region.
Background on South China Sea Disputes
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea have long been a contentious issue involving conflicting claims by several sovereign states, notably the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC), Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. These disputes encompass a myriad of islands, reefs, banks, and other features in the South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and various boundaries in the Gulf of Tonkin. Additionally, the waters surrounding the Indonesian Natuna Islands are also subject to dispute.
The South China Sea holds immense strategic significance, with an estimated US$3.37 trillion worth of global trade passing through its waters annually, constituting a third of global maritime trade. Notably, 80 percent of China’s energy imports and 39.5 percent of its total trade traverse these waters. As such, claimant states vie for control over fishing stocks, exploration and exploitation rights for oil and natural gas reserves, and strategic dominance over vital shipping lanes. The disputes also pose challenges to maritime security, complicating shipping activities in the region.
Historically, France staked claims to both the Paracel and Spratly Islands in 1932, a move that drew protests from China and Japan. Subsequently, in 1947, the Republic of China asserted its sovereignty over the majority of the South China Sea, a claim later inherited by the government of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
In recent years, tensions have escalated with the PRC’s construction of artificial islands in the Spratly and Paracel Islands, starting in 2013. While Vietnam and the Philippines had engaged in limited-scale island-building endeavors previously, China’s efforts dwarfed these, leading to unprecedented territorial alterations and the installation of military equipment on its artificial islands.
China’s actions in the South China Sea, often described as employing “salami slicing” or “cabbage wrapping” strategies, have raised concerns among neighboring states and prompted international responses. The United States, France, the United Kingdom, and others have conducted freedom of navigation operations (FONOP) in the region to challenge excessive maritime claims.
In a significant development, an arbitration tribunal ruled against China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea in July 2016, citing violations of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). However, China and Taiwan rejected the tribunal’s jurisdiction and insisted on resolving disputes through bilateral negotiations.
The disputes in the South China Sea encompass various maritime boundaries and islands, including the infamous nine-dash line claimed by China, which overlaps with the exclusive economic zones of multiple countries. These disputes persist, presenting ongoing challenges to regional stability and maritime security.
Details of the Agreements: Cooperation between Coastguards and trade ties
As part of the recent diplomatic developments, Vietnam and the Philippines have officially inked two pivotal agreements focused on “incident prevention in the South China Sea” and “maritime cooperation” among their respective coastguards. This strategic collaboration is viewed as a significant move that, if successful, may lead to possible compromises between the signatories regarding their individual claims in the region, a prospect likely to cause unease in Beijing.
Emphasizing the depth of the partnership, the Philippines’ representative, Marcos, highlighted that Vietnam holds a unique and exclusive status as “the sole strategic partner of the Philippines” in Southeast Asia. The cornerstone of this relationship, according to Marcos, is maritime cooperation, underlining the importance of joint efforts in ensuring regional stability and security.
Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh expressed the positive impact of Marcos’s visit, emphasizing that it has played a crucial role in enhancing bilateral relations. Recognizing the rapidly evolving and complex global and regional dynamics, Chinh stressed the necessity for unity and closer cooperation between the two nations. The signed agreements, particularly in the domain of coastguard cooperation, are seen as instrumental in navigating the intricate challenges presented by the South China Sea disputes and fostering stronger ties between Vietnam and the Philippines.
In addition to the maritime cooperation agreements, both Vietnam and the Philippines have made concerted efforts to strengthen their trade ties, signaling a multifaceted approach to their bilateral relations.
A notable development is the signing of a five-year trade commitment aimed at enhancing food security. Under this agreement, Vietnam has committed to supplying up to 2 million tonnes of white rice to the Philippines. The initiative comes in response to the challenges posed by climate change, pandemics, and other external events, underlining the importance of collaboration in addressing shared concerns.
Furthermore, during discussions with Vietnamese political leaders, Marcos engaged with Pham Nhat Vuong, the head of Vingroup, Vietnam’s largest conglomerate. As a significant outcome of their meeting, VinFast, the electric car unit of Vingroup, announced its intention to establish a business network in the Philippines. This move underscores the mutual interest in expanding economic cooperation beyond traditional sectors.
Of particular interest is Marcos’s acknowledgment of the Philippines’ potential contribution to the production of batteries for electric vehicles. Highlighting the country’s reserves of cobalt, copper, and nickel, Marcos expressed confidence in the Philippines’ capacity to support VinFast’s endeavors in the electric car industry.
These developments underscore the depth and breadth of the agreements reached between Vietnam and the Philippines, extending beyond maritime cooperation to encompass trade, economic collaboration, and technological exchange. The synergistic approach adopted by both countries reflects their shared commitment to advancing mutual interests and fostering sustainable development in the region.
Implications and Reactions
China is expected to perceive these agreements as a challenge to its maritime claims and regional influence. Beijing may respond by increasing its military presence and assertive actions in the South China Sea, potentially heightening tensions in the region. Additionally, China could employ diplomatic tactics, such as bilateral talks with Vietnam and the Philippines, to undermine the solidarity between the two countries and weaken their collective stance against Chinese encroachment.
In response to the agreements, other regional actors, including ASEAN member states and the United States, are likely to express support for Vietnam and the Philippines. ASEAN members, many of whom have overlapping territorial claims with China, may view the agreements as a positive step toward enhancing regional cooperation and solidarity against external pressure. The United States, a key strategic ally of both Vietnam and the Philippines, is expected to lend its support to efforts aimed at enhancing maritime security and upholding freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
Furthermore, other regional actors, such as Japan, Australia, and India, may also express support for the agreements as part of their broader efforts to maintain stability and uphold international law in the Indo-Pacific region. Their endorsement could further bolster Vietnam and the Philippines’ positions and contribute to a more balanced power dynamic in the region.
Future Prospects and Challenges
The long-term prospects for sustainable security and stability in the South China Sea remain complex and challenging, given the ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region. While recent agreements between countries like Vietnam and the Philippines signal efforts towards cooperation, achieving lasting stability will require concerted diplomatic efforts and multilateral engagement.
One major challenge lies in the deep-rooted territorial disputes among regional stakeholders, particularly China and Southeast Asian nations. These disputes are exacerbated by competing sovereignty claims and historical grievances, making resolution difficult. Geopolitical rivalries, especially between China and the United States, further complicate the situation, as both powers vie for influence and control in the Indo-Pacific region.
Effective implementation of agreements, such as those on maritime cooperation and trade ties, faces obstacles due to diverging interests among regional stakeholders. While some countries prioritize economic development and peaceful resolution of disputes, others may adopt more assertive approaches to safeguard their territorial claims. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties, including shifts in global alliances and power dynamics, can impede progress towards sustainable security in the South China Sea.
Despite these challenges, there are opportunities for broader regional cooperation and diplomatic engagement to mitigate tensions and build confidence among stakeholders. Initiatives such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit provide platforms for dialogue and conflict resolution. Engaging in multilateral mechanisms allows countries to address shared concerns and promote peaceful coexistence in the region.
Furthermore, promoting transparency and adherence to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), is crucial for fostering trust and stability. Encouraging dialogue and negotiation, backed by mechanisms for dispute resolution, can help prevent escalations and reduce the risk of conflict in the South China Sea.
Investing in maritime security cooperation, such as joint patrols and information-sharing mechanisms, can enhance confidence-building measures and reduce the likelihood of misunderstandings or miscalculations at sea. Additionally, promoting economic interdependence and connectivity through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can incentivize peaceful cooperation and discourage unilateral actions that may escalate tensions.
Conclusion
The recent agreements between Vietnam and the Philippines signify a concerted effort to address shared security concerns and assert sovereign rights in the disputed South China Sea. While they represent a significant step towards enhancing maritime cooperation and safeguarding regional stability, the path ahead is fraught with challenges and uncertainties. Continued diplomatic dialogue, adherence to international law, and multilateral cooperation remain essential in navigating the complex dynamics of the South China Sea disputes and promoting a peaceful and rules-based order in the region.
