In a dramatic display of tightening alliances and growing urgency, the Philippines and the United States concluded their seventh joint maritime exercises in the South China Sea just days ago, on June 5, 2025. This followed closely on the heels of a major U.S. proposal offering Manila a fleet of F-16 Block 70/72 fighters valued at $5.6 billion, amid rising Chinese pressure and aggressive J-10C patrols near contested reefs. Meanwhile, South Korea finalized a $713 million deal with the Philippines to deliver 12 new FA-50s, doubling down on its commitment to Manila’s airpower aspirations. These rapid developments highlight a larger truth: the Philippines is now squarely at the crossroads of the Indo-Pacific’s defining great-power rivalry.
As tensions escalate over the South China Sea, Beijing’s assertiveness is being met with growing military cooperation between Washington, Tokyo, Canberra, and Manila. The Philippines is no longer a passive bystander in this strategic crucible, it is actively modernizing, investing billions under its Re-Horizon 3 defense roadmap. The Philippine Air Force (PAF), once reliant on aging OV-10 Broncos and trainer jets, is now poised to become a key player in regional air defense. The central pillar of this transformation is the acquisition of a true multirole fighter jet that can both patrol its vast maritime borders and counter the growing threat posed by China’s advanced J-10C fighters.
At the heart of this defense calculus lies a crucial question: Which fighter aircraft best fits the Philippines’ strategic needs, operational realities, and financial constraints? The contenders, America’s battle-tested F-16V, Sweden’s agile Gripen E/F, Italy’s cost-effective M-346FA, South Korea’s familiar FA-50PH, and the upcoming KF-21 Boramae, each bring unique strengths and compromises. But the overriding concern remains: Can any of these jets realistically challenge the capabilities of the Chinese J-10C, especially as tensions near Philippine territory show no signs of cooling?
PAF Today & Tomorrow
The Philippine Air Force (PAF) stands at a pivotal moment in its evolution, balancing the limitations of its current fleet with the ambitions of a sweeping modernization drive. At present, its air combat backbone is built around the FA-50PH, a Korean-made light combat aircraft that bridges the gap between training and tactical capability. Though the FA-50 lacks the supersonic punch and beyond-visual-range (BVR) firepower of full-fledged multirole fighters, it has served reliably in air patrols, close air support (CAS), and rapid deployment roles, essential functions given the archipelago’s dispersed geography and persistent maritime flashpoints.
Looking ahead, the PAF’s future is defined by “Re-Horizon 3”, the third and most ambitious phase of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Program. Spanning from 2023 to 2028, this ₱1.8 trillion (approximately USD 35 billion) initiative aims to overhaul the country’s defense posture with a sharpened focus on air superiority, naval defense, and missile deterrence. Air Force procurement priorities now include high-end fighters, advanced surveillance platforms, long-range munitions, and integrated air defense systems, all calibrated to confront the growing Chinese presence in contested maritime zones.
To meet its evolving mission profile, the PAF is reorienting around a diverse set of strategic needs: enhanced maritime domain awareness, the ability to execute BVR engagements and Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD), scalable close air support (CAS) for ground operations, and the capacity to operate from dispersed airfields with logistical flexibility. Moreover, the endurance and survivability of future platforms are critical, especially in a scenario where contested airspace and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) threats loom large. As such, selecting the right fighter is not just about acquisition, it’s about anchoring the nation’s sovereignty in a rapidly shifting Indo-Pacific theater.
F-16 Block 70/72 “Viper”: America’s Spearhead, Manila’s Dilemma
If the skies over the South China Sea turn hostile, few jets inspire more fear, or more debate, than the F-16V. The Block 70/72 “Viper” isn’t just a fighter; it’s a flying weapons node built for 21st-century warfighting. Packed with the AN/APG-83 AESA radar, modular battle computers, precision datalinks, and Auto-GCAS life-saving tech, this upgraded beast is a front-line veteran reborn for the next generation. It speaks the language of joint ops, perfectly syncing with U.S. and allied command networks across land, sea, and air.
When it comes to bite, the Viper strikes fast and hard. It can unleash AIM-120 AMRAAMs for long-range dogfights, JDAMs for surgical strikes, and anti-radiation missiles for SEAD missions, all while flying at Mach 2+ and maneuvering like a dancer on afterburner. This makes it a true multi-domain threat, capable of outmatching Chinese J-10Cs in both reach and punch, especially when paired with U.S. AWACS and ISR support.
But power comes at a price. Each hour in the air bleeds cash, USD 10,000 to 12,000 per flight hour, and the jet’s high-end maintenance demands a full logistics backbone. Add in ITAR restrictions, and flexibility shrinks fast. Politically, the winds are shifting too: despite a headline-grabbing $5.6 billion offer, Defense Secretary Teodoro is reportedly cooling on the F-16 deal, citing affordability concerns and readiness gaps.
So the question becomes: Does the Philippines want the apex predator and can it afford to feed it? The F-16V offers elite power and deterrence, but with heavy baggage.
On paper, the F-16 deal looks airtight. Washington has already greenlit the sale, 20 jets fully loaded, approved via the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA). The offer includes everything from AESA radars to spare engines, advanced weapons, training, and sustainment, a turnkey package for a frontline air force. It’s a rare alignment of opportunity, timing, and alliance-building.
But here’s the catch: Manila hasn’t signed. Despite years of lobbying, site visits, and joint drills, the Philippines has yet to formally accept the offer, leaving the F-16V in geopolitical limbo. Defense planners in Camp Aguinaldo are weighing the aircraft’s undeniable muscle against its steep price tag, potential overmatch for current infrastructure, and the strategic question: Is it wise to go all-in on just one superpower’s fighter when the Indo-Pacific chessboard demands flexibility? In essence, the F-16V is fully loaded and ready to launch, but only if Manila pulls the trigger.
Gripen E/F: The Nordic Ninja Made for Archipelagos
Silent. Lethal. Agile. Sweden’s Gripen E/F isn’t the flashiest fighter in the hangar, but it might just be the smartest match for the Philippines. Built for modern warfare in contested airspace, the Gripen E carries a punch well above its weight. It fuses the Raven ES-05 AESA radar with the Skyward-G infrared search and track (IRST) system, giving it a dual-layer sensor suite that sees stealth and evades jamming. Add an integrated electronic warfare (EW) suite, and this jet becomes a ghost, hard to lock, harder to kill.
Armed with Meteor BVR missiles, the Gripen can hit targets over 150 km away, longer than even China’s PL-12, putting J-10Cs in its crosshairs before they can respond. It can also sling coastal anti-ship missiles and precision ground weapons, making it a deadly tool for defending the Philippines’ fractured coastline and maritime zones. Even better, it can fly from short or semi-prepared runways, ideal for dispersed island ops.
But the real kicker? It’s built for affordability and autonomy. With operating costs around USD 6,000–7,000 per flight hour, it’s nearly half the cost of flying an F-16. Saab’s flexible export stance also means fewer ITAR strings attached, giving Manila more room to tweak, integrate, and expand, without always needing a nod from Washington. It’s the kind of independence a middle power can’t afford to overlook.
And the political winds are shifting too. In a major signal of strategic intent, the Philippines signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Sweden during the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, hinting at a broader pivot toward Scandinavian tech and defense diplomacy. The Gripen isn’t just a fighter, it’s a statement: smart, sovereign, and island-ready.
Leonardo M-346FA: The Trainer That Wants to Be a Fighter
It’s sleek, smart, and economical, but is that enough in a sky filled with J-10Cs? The Leonardo M-346FA is the Italian defense industry’s answer to lightweight multirole airpower, blending jet trainer roots with modern combat systems. Outfitted with the Grifo-M346 pulse-Doppler radar, helmet-mounted displays, and guided weapon compatibility, this aircraft was designed for countries seeking a cost-efficient step into jet-powered strike and patrol missions.
Where the M-346FA shines is in multi-role adaptability. It serves as both a lead-in fighter trainer (LIFT) and a light attack platform, ideal for missions like close air support (CAS), counterinsurgency (COIN), search and rescue (SAR) support, and air policing in low-threat environments. Its low operating costs and simple maintenance footprint make it a good fit for archipelagic nations operating over dispersed territory.
But the trade-offs are hard to ignore. This isn’t a true frontline fighter. It lacks the SEAD and BVR punch required for contested air dominance and has limited survivability against peer-level threats like the J-10C or Su-35. It flies with subsonic speed and carries less onboard radar and defensive suite sophistication than high-end platforms.
Still, it’s gaining traction. In a bold move earlier this year, Austria inked a €1 billion deal for 12 M-346FA jets, citing affordability and training versatility. It’s a signal that the jet is finding its niche among budget-conscious European and Asian air forces.
For the Philippines, the M-346FA could be a second-tier fighter, a supplement to heavier assets, or a low-cost hedge in a multi-layer airpower strategy. But make no mistake: in a face-off with China’s J-10C, this bird would need backup.
KAI FA-50PH Block 20: The Workhorse with New Teeth
From trusted trainer to frontline fighter-lite, the FA-50PH Block 20 is the jet that’s already in the fight, and it’s about to get a serious upgrade. South Korea’s KAI has retooled its bestselling light combat aircraft with a new AESA radar, in-flight refueling, and AIM-120 AMRAAM capability, turning this once-modest platform into a genuine tactical asset.
Strategically, the FA-50 is home turf for the Philippine Air Force. The PAF’s pilots, ground crews, and logistics backbone already run on FA-50 DNA. That makes the Block 20 upgrade plug-and-play, no steep learning curve, no massive infrastructure overhaul. At around USD 58 million per unit, it’s by far the most affordable option on the shortlist. That logic is already in motion: the Philippines recently signed a deal for 12 additional Block 20 jets, doubling down on a platform it knows well.
On the battlefield, the FA-50 excels in homeland defense, pilot training, and close air support (CAS). It’s fast, nimble, and ideal for patrolling Philippine skies, especially over the Sulu Sea, Luzon Strait, and disputed shoals. With the Block 20’s added reach and firepower, it can now shoulder some BVR duties, a major leap forward.But let’s not sugarcoat it: this isn’t a J-10C killer. It still lacks the SEAD systems, EW suite, and survivability profile needed to thrive in a peer-level air war. Think of it as a loyal guard dog, fast to respond, cost-effective to maintain, but not built to brawl with apex predators.
Still, in a layered defense strategy, the FA-50PH Block 20 could be the backbone of the fleet, allowing higher-end fighters to focus on high-threat zones while the FA-50s keep the rest of the skies secure.
Japan’s Growing Military Ties with the Philippines: What It Means for China and the Region?
Emerging: KF-21 Boramae — Tomorrow’s Phoenix
Sleek, stealthy, and still under wraps, the KAI KF-21 “Boramae” is South Korea’s bold leap into the big leagues. A 4.5-generation fighter with stealth shaping, cutting-edge avionics, and a future-ready weapons bay, the KF-21 isn’t just a jet, it’s a declaration of aerospace independence. South Korea aims to make it a multirole powerhouse, with plans for AESA radar, internal weapons carriage, and long-range BVR missiles on par with the best from NATO or China.
For the Philippines, the Boramae is a fighter for the next fight. Not yet fielded, but rising fast, it aligns perfectly with a post-2028 modernization cycle. As Horizon 3 matures and more budget space opens up, the KF-21 could give the PAF a fifth-gen-lite option, stealthier than an F-16, cheaper than an F-35, and proudly Asian in origin. If Manila is looking to build true deterrence beyond 2030, this is a bird worth watching.
China’s J-10C “Vigorous Dragon” — The Apex Adversary
Enter the threat. Fast, networked, and well-armed, the Chengdu J-10C is China’s frontline multirole jet, and it’s getting dangerously close to home. With its AESA radar, PL-15 long-range BVR missiles, PL-10 high-off-boresight IR missiles, and Mach 1.8 top speed, the J-10C is no export knockoff, it’s a legit 4.5-generation peer, built to challenge American and allied airframes head-on.
Its canard-delta design gives it superb agility in dogfights, while its sensors and missiles provide serious standoff lethality. Even more concerning: the J-10C operates as part of China’s larger Integrated Air Defense System (IADS), already entrenched around Hainan, the Paracels, and Mischief Reef. This makes it a formidable foe, protected by radar coverage, SAMs, and overlapping PLAAF formations in the South China Sea battlespace.
Implications for the Philippines? Stark. Any credible fighter fleet must match or counter the J-10C’s strengths, strong BVR capability, robust EW, and long operational legs for extended maritime patrol. Fighters without those features risk being out-ranged, out-foxed, and outgunned before they even see the Dragon coming.
Strategic Flight Plan: Building the Right Airpower for the Philippines
As regional tensions escalate in the Indo-Pacific, the Philippines faces a critical defense challenge: building an air force that’s powerful yet affordable, interoperable yet sovereign, and ready for war in an archipelagic battlespace. This isn’t just about buying fighter jets, it’s about creating a layered, future-ready posture that aligns with geography, alliances, and long-term strategic goals.
In terms of cost, the F-16 Block 70/72 is unmatched in raw capability but is also the most expensive to operate, at USD 10–12K per flight hour. The Saab Gripen E/F offers a more balanced solution, delivering cutting-edge features like Meteor missiles, advanced EW, and rough-field operations at a more sustainable USD 6–7K/hr. Meanwhile, the FA-50PH and M-346FA provide cost-effective platforms ideal for high-sortie, homeland defense and training roles, affordable, proven, and scalable.
For operations across 7,000+ islands, flexibility is key. The Gripen and FA-50PH excel in archipelagic conditions with their ability to use short or improvised runways, quick turnaround times, and aerial refueling. The F-16, while powerful, relies on better-defended bases and longer runways, less suited to dispersed operations in a contested maritime zone.
In alliance terms, the F-16 ensures deep U.S. interoperability, perfect for joint drills like Balikatan and real-time battlefield data sharing. Still, the Gripen retains NATO-standard links and broad coalition compatibility. On autonomy, Sweden’s Gripen and Italy’s M-346FA offer fewer political strings and greater operational freedom. The FA-50 supports domestic industry through KAI partnerships, while the F-16 remains tightly tied to U.S. policy through ITAR constraints.
Industrial cooperation is another factor Manila cannot ignore. Saab and KAI both bring tech transfer and local assembly to the table, building up Philippine aerospace capacity, not just its air fleet. Looking forward, South Korea’s KF-21 Boramae promises a next-gen leap post-2028, combining stealth shaping, supersonic range, and multirole adaptability. With strong Korea-Philippines ties, this future platform fits perfectly into a long-term modernization arc.
To move forward, the Philippines should adopt a layered force posture. In the short term, upgrading the FA-50PH Block 20 provides a solid base for defense, CAS, and training. In the medium term, acquiring the Gripen E/F fills critical gaps in BVR, SEAD, and maritime interdiction. If budget permits and alliance signaling is a priority, a limited F-16 buy could serve as a high-end deterrent. And post-Horizon 3, the KF-21 offers a pathway to full-spectrum air dominance by 2035.
Ultimately, the Philippines doesn’t need the most jets, it needs the right ones. A smart mix of affordability, capability, and flexibility will ensure airpower that not only survives, but shapes the future battlespace in Southeast Asia.
US to create a new base in Philippines to maintain unmanned naval vessels observing Chinese forces
Final Word: Building a Sky That Wins
The Philippines must build an air force that is layered, lethal, and locally sustainable. That means using the FA-50PH as a trusted base, acquiring the Gripen E/F as a flexible frontline asset, optionally integrating the F-16 to anchor alliance interoperability, and planning ahead for the KF-21 to secure long-term air superiority. This is not just about jets, it’s about reshaping the PAF into a force that can defend sovereignty, adapt to crises, and project credible deterrence into the contested skies of the Indo-Pacific.
