A Brief
In a groundbreaking turn of events, the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election has resulted in the victory of William Lai Ching-te, securing a historic third consecutive term for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai’s compelling win, commanding 40.1% of the vote, demonstrates a substantial mandate. The electoral landscape was dominated by the overarching theme of managing relations with China, underscoring the challenges associated with the ongoing Taiwan Strait tensions. As a seasoned politician and former doctor, William Lai will have to confront the difficult task of navigating the complex superpower rivalry, given China’s persistent territorial claims over Taiwan. Lai’s victory serves as a resounding endorsement of the Taiwanese people’s commitment to democracy, echoing the sentiments of outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen.
The question which we are going to discuss is, whether Taiwan can fight China, is indeed a complex interplay of historical, geopolitical, and military factors. China, led by President Xi Jinping, asserts that the “reunification with Taiwan must be fulfilled.” However, Taiwan, distinct from the Chinese mainland with its own constitution and democratically elected leaders, stands in East Asia as a key player in the “first island chain,” crucial to U.S. foreign policy. The historical roots of the conflict are embedded in Mao Zedong’s communist struggle, with Taiwan’s control shifting between dynasties and nations. Presently, as China seeks to extend beyond the first island chain, Taiwan’s strategic importance is evident, leading to military challenges. Despite Taiwan’s defense capabilities being dwarfed by China, its adoption of “asymmetric warfare” aims to counterbalance the stark military imbalance. While international support for Taiwan grows, diplomatic challenges persist, and economic interdependence, especially in semiconductor production, adds complexity. Let us get into the detail of our question.
Historical Perspective
Taiwan’s story stretches back thousands of years, with indigenous people inhabiting the island for over 6,000 years. Europeans, like the Portuguese and Spanish, began arriving in the 16th century, followed by the Dutch who established a colony in the 17th century. The island first came under full Chinese control in the late 17th century when the Qing dynasty began administering it. Then, in 1895, they gave up the island to Japan after losing the first Sino Japanese war. China took the island again in 1945 after Japan lost World War Two. But a civil war erupted in mainland China between nationalist government forces led by Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Zedong’s Communist Party. “Strategically, with control over Taiwan, China will be able to push beyond the “first island chain, a string of countries that have security agreements with the U.S., including Japan and the Philippines, and into the Pacific.†China could then, in theory, avoid the radar and ships of the U.S. military and their allies. The first island chain provides a ring of defense for the U.S. and its allies. If China has control over Taiwan, that would open up the Western Pacific to Chinese military assets.
Taiwan’s Defense Capabilities:Â Unmatched to the Military strength of China
Taiwan’s defense capabilities stands in stark contrast to the formidable military strength of China, particularly in the realm of air power. According to Global Firepower, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) boasts an overwhelming advantage, with more than 3,000 military aircraft and nearly 400,000 personnel in its air force. In comparison, Taiwan fields just over 700 military aircraft and approximately 30,000 soldiers in its air force. The significant numerical gap is compounded by China’s status as the world’s largest standing army, with 2 million members and superior air, naval, and firepower capabilities.
Despite the glaring disparities, Taiwan’s strategic approach to counter the threat from China revolves around leveraging asymmetric warfare tactics. The island nation, with a population of 23 million and a military force of 169,000 active service personnel, recognizes its relative vulnerability. Taiwan’s preparedness hinges on its ability to neutralize the gaping asymmetry in air power through the strategic deployment of anti-aircraft missiles. While the PLA may have numerical superiority, Taiwan aims to make any military assault exceptionally challenging, costly, and politically unfavorable for China. This involves deploying mobile, highly-trained forces, leveraging technological advancements like anti-ship missiles, and utilizing the island’s mountainous terrain to inflict heavy casualties on a larger attacker. Taiwan’s dense urban areas and fortified coastlines can create substantial logistical and tactical challenges for an invading force.
The concept of asymmetric warfare adopted by contemporary Taiwan involves unconventional strategies, drawing inspiration from historical precedents where smaller forces successfully resisted superior powers. Such tactics include guerrilla warfare, disrupting supply chains, exploiting weather and terrain, and avoiding direct confrontations. In the face of an existential threat just 180km across the Taiwan Strait. By making an invasion financially and politically untenable, Taiwan aims to dissuade the PLA from pursuing military aggression, emphasizing the complex nature of modern defense strategies beyond numerical parity in military assets. Additionally, Taiwan benefits from potentially supportive international actors, who might impose economic sanctions or offer military assistance.
Moreover, Taipei recently announced an extension to mandatory military service periods from four months to a year and accelerated the development of its indigenous weapons program to boost its combat readiness. But analysts say a recent announcement – one that has perhaps gone less remarked upon in the global media – could prove a game-changer: talks between Taipei and the United States to establish a “contingency stockpile†of munitions on Taiwan’s soil.
However, in 2023, China’s defense budget was $230 billion, more than 13 times the size of Taiwan’s spending of $16.89 billion. So, instead of matching ship for ship or plane for plane, Taiwan should embrace an asymmetric warfare model focused on the procurement of smaller weapons – such as portable missiles and mines – that are hard to detect but effective in halting enemy advances.
Another question that arises is how many weapons or missiles Taiwan would need to defend itself against China. Experts said providing a concrete number is difficult because the possible combat scenarios were so varied. In an all-out war, China could fire long-range missiles to destroy Taiwanese infrastructure and military targets before attempting to send its ground troops across the Taiwan Strait.
China’s military power and strategies
China’s military power and strategies are intrinsically tied to safeguarding its sovereignty, security, and development interests while asserting a more significant global role. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) adheres to a defense policy oriented towards active defense, emphasizing the imperative of fortifying the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a “world-class” military. This commitment is integral to China’s broader strategy aimed at rejuvenating the PRC into a “great modern socialist country” by the culmination of 2049.
Central to China’s military doctrine is the concept of active defense, indicating a strategic approach focused on protecting its interests and responding to perceived threats rather than pursuing aggressive expansion. The PRC’s leadership underscores the need to bolster the PLA as a cornerstone of this strategy, aiming for global recognition of its military prowess. By aspiring to become a “world-class” military force, China seeks to project strength and influence not only within its immediate region but on the global stage.
China’s emphasis on military modernization aligns with its broader national rejuvenation goals, reflecting aspirations for comprehensive economic, technological, and military advancements. The development of a formidable military is seen as essential to achieving great power status and ensuring the PRC’s influence in global affairs. As China continues to assert its strategic interests, the evolution of its military power and strategies will significantly impact regional and international dynamics, contributing to the ongoing geopolitical shifts in the 21st century.
Support of Taiwan in the Diplomatic Arena
In 2021, international support for Taiwan rose to its highest level since 1971, when Taipei lost its seat at the United Nations to the People’s Republic of China. The United States has been the most prominent major supporter of Taiwan since then, even though it does not formally recognize the island nation as an independent country. Currently, only 15 countries or territories recognize Taiwan and use its preferred name, the Republic of China. These are mostly small countries in Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean or the South Pacific that rely on Taipei for economic assistance.
One of the greatest dangers to international security today is the possibility of a military confrontation between China and Taiwan that leads to a war between China and the United States. Neither Beijing nor Taipei wants a war, but both sides have adopted policies that run an unacceptably high risk of bloodshed over the upcoming years.
Economic Considerations
A military conflict over Taiwan would set the global economy back decades because of the crippling disruption to the supply chain of crucial semiconductors, according to the head of one of the island’s leading makers of microchips. Taiwan makes the world’s most advanced microchips — the brains inside every piece of technology from smartphones and modern cars to artificial intelligence and fighter jets. The island is a microchip fabrication hotbed, producing 60% of the world’s semiconductors — and around 93% of the most advanced ones, according to a 2021 report from the Boston Consulting Group. The U.S., South Korea and China also produce semiconductors, but Taiwan dominates the market, which was worth almost $600 billion last year. Likewise, it is important to note that Taiwan is the world’s 16th largest trading economy, having imported and exported $922 billion in goods and services in 2021 alone.
In recent months, growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait as well as the rapid and coordinated Group of Seven (G7) economic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have raised questions—in G7 capitals and in Beijing alike—over whether similar measures could be imposed on China in a Taiwan crisis. Large-scale sanctions on China would entail massive global costs. As the world’s second-biggest economy—ten times the size of Russia—and the world’s largest trader, China has deep global economic ties that make full-scale sanctions highly costly for all parties. In a maximalist scenario involving sanctions on the largest institutions in China’s banking system, we estimate that at least $3 trillion in trade and financial flows, not including foreign reserve assets, would be put at immediate risk of disruption. This is nearly equivalent to the gross domestic product of the United Kingdom in 2022. Impacts of this scale makes it politically difficult outside of an invasion of Taiwan or wartime scenario.
Deterrence through economic statecraft cannot do the job alone. Economic countermeasures are complementary to, rather than a replacement for, military and diplomatic tools to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Overreliance on economic countermeasures or overconfidence in their short-term impact could lead to policy missteps. Such tools also run the risk of becoming gradually less effective over time as China scales up alternative currency and financial settlement systems.
A Public Perspective
Outside Taiwan, a spring 2023 survey conducted by the Pew Research Center revealed that Taiwan enjoys generally favorable perceptions in 24 high and middle income countries. Across these nations, a median of 48% of respondents holds a favorable view of Taiwan, while only a median of 28% express an unfavorable opinion. Among the surveyed countries, Japan stands out as having the most positive attitudes towards Taiwan, with an impressive 82% expressing a favorable view. Additionally, substantial support is observed in South Korea, where about three-quarters of respondents view Taiwan favorably, and in Australia, where seven-in-ten share the same sentiment.
Inside Taiwan, as per survey of Mainland Affairs Council, 76.6% public believe that the Chinese authorities are unfriendly toward the ROC government and the ROC people. As much as 90% of the public disapprove the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “one country, two systems” proposal, oppose the CCP’s military intimidation of Taiwan (90.5%), and disagree with the CCP’s diplomatic suppression towards Taiwan (91.5%). The numbers indicate that Taiwanese mainstream opinion opposes China’s negative actions against Taiwan.
Factors Influencing the Likelihood of Conflict and Future Scenarios
The conventional wisdom in Washington is that China is preparing for an imminent war with the United States in an effort to reunify with Taiwan by force. Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready for war by 2027, though CIA Director William Burns has said that such military planning does not mean that China will launch a war by then. Burns added that China may harbor doubts about whether it has the capability to execute the largest amphibious assault, since the D-Day landing in World War II. Nevertheless, during the past years, several top U.S. military officials have assessed that China will invade Taiwan by 2025 or by 2027.
According to Xi’s speeches and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) documents, Beijing sees unification with Taiwan as necessary to fulfill Xi’s “China Dream: the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation.†The CCP seeks to achieve this goal by 2049, on the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China’s founding. Thus, the CCP views Taiwan as an existential issue, much like, as Russian President Vladimir Putin viewed Ukraine issue.
On the flip side, semi-secret strategies on both sides of the Pacific have generally escaped much notice. The US military commitment to Taiwan cannot remain ambiguous, this country’s economic dependence on that island’s computer-chip production is almost absolute. As the epicenter of a global supply chain, Taiwan manufactures 90 percent of the world’s advanced chips and 65 percent of all semiconductors
Taiwan China Conflict: A Final Straw before a World War III
There are enough conflicts brewing all around the globe already and the catastrophic ramifications of such a confrontation would indeed be the final straw. Taiwan stands out with its geographical importance, but also with its political ambiguity: it is de jure Chinese territory according to the so-called “One China†policy of China’s ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The Chinese government claims sovereignty over Taiwan as an “inalienable part of China.â€
Amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, political uncertainty in Europe and Africa, emerging challenges in Asia, economic turmoil around the globe and while Israeli forces are moving into Gaza, now there exist likely chances that the Chinese and the Americans will be fighting in the Pacific, despite being the fact that both nations are laced with nuclear armament. Chinese and American leaders are realizing that any conflict over Taiwan would perhaps be the final straw before a World War III.
Final thoughts on the prospects of Taiwan resisting China
The election of President William Lai, marked by a historic third term for the Democratic Progressive Party, underscores Taiwan’s commitment to democracy and resistance against external pressures, especially from China. Taiwan’s defense capabilities, while dwarfed by China’s formidable military strength, adopt an asymmetric warfare model to counterbalance the numerical disparity. The island nation’s strategic approach involves leveraging anti-aircraft missiles, guerrilla tactics, and exploiting its mountainous terrain to make any military assault challenging and politically unfavorable for China. Recent initiatives, such as extending mandatory military service and talks with the United States for a munitions stockpile, demonstrate Taiwan’s commitment to bolstering its defense readiness.
The international arena plays a crucial role, with growing support for Taiwan evident in favorable perceptions globally. However, diplomatic challenges persist, as Taiwan’s recognition as an independent state remains limited, and its access to international organizations is constrained. Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor production makes it a key player in the global supply chain. A military conflict could have severe economic repercussions, disrupting the semiconductor market and setting the global economy back decades.
The likelihood of conflict is influenced by factors such as China’s strategic goals, the U.S. commitment to Taiwan, and the potential catastrophic consequences of a confrontation in the Pacific. The stakes are high, with many experts warning that a conflict over Taiwan could be a catalyst for a broader world war.
In essence, “Can Taiwan Fight China?” involves a multifaceted analysis of historical, geopolitical, military, economic, and public opinion factors. Taiwan’s strategic resilience, coupled with international support, economic significance, and the broader global context, shapes the complex dynamics surrounding the island’s ability to navigate the challenges posed by an assertive China.
