The Israel-Hamas conflict has unleashed a catastrophic toll, with severe casualties mounting over recent months. Daily, an average of 250 Palestinians in Gaza perish, half of them children, surpassing a total of 25,000 lives lost and continuing to rise. Nearly two million people have been uprooted from their homes, and many of the survivors now confront the specter of starvation. This dire scenario underscores the profound humanitarian crisis gripping Gaza, a region mired in recurrent conflicts and heightened tensions between Israel and Hamas.
The recent conflict, which commenced on October 7th, 2023, continues unabated, with the international community striving to broker a ceasefire. Despite these efforts, Israel persists in its bombardment of Palestine. Israel’s objectives in this conflict are threefold:
Firstly, the elimination of Hamas.
Secondly, the liberation of their people who are under Hamas rule as refugees.
And thirdly, ensuring that Hamas never poses a threat to Israel again.
Israel’s Attack on Hamas
Israel has consistently asserted its goal to neutralize Hamas’s military and governing capacities. Consequently, it has maintained relentless aerial bombardments and ground incursions into the Gaza Strip since October 7th.
Hamas lacks a conventional army in the traditional sense, but its military wing comprises a relatively organized and well-funded coalition of guerrilla fighters. The Israeli Defense Forces aim to target and neutralize Hamas fighters but have failed to do so, as reported by many experts in the field. Israel, on the other hand, has refused to accept that they are losing any ground against Hamas and are doing heavy damage to their personnel. Tel Aviv continues to propagate a narrative of Hamas’s supposed weakening, asserting that the conflict in northern Gaza is nearing completion and victory in the southern region is imminent. Official reports indicate over 460 soldiers were killed across Gaza, Israel, and the occupied West Bank, with around 1,900 injured.
Israel is attacking from the ground and air as well and has claimed that they have neutralized many of the top leadership of Hamas. Hamas, however, is engaged in combat within its own territory, benefiting from a significant advantage of thousands of young fighters who are prepared to sacrifice their lives, as suggested by many analysts. This presents a considerable challenge for conventional Israeli military forces attempting to defeat them.
Analysts note that Hamas demonstrates a level of efficiency in weapon use beyond what was initially anticipated. Additionally, its tunnel network is more extensive and organized than previously believed by Israeli intelligence. Despite high levels of surveillance, Hamas has managed to conceal hostages effectively.
Hamas Continues to Exist
Hamas, even after continuous attacks from Israel, stands strong according to different sources and will continue to exist as it is fighting for a cause that is to defend its land against illegal occupation from Israel. The group remains operational and influential. In political terms, it is still acknowledged, even if not officially, as the sole entity controlling what is left of the extensively devastated civilian infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas is involved in indirect negotiations that have resulted in a temporary cessation of the assault on Gaza for one week, along with a limited exchange of Israeli and Palestinian captives and hostages. As long as Hamas retains control of its remaining hostages, it remains a crucial participant in these negotiations, as their release is contingent on its cooperation.
Hamas maintains its effectiveness as a military force, with its military wing, the Qassam Brigades, closely guarding information about its structure, organization, and personnel numbers. Despite this secrecy, experts, drawing from various open sources and leaked intelligence from Israeli, US, Arab, and Russian channels, estimate the strength of the Qassam Brigades to be between 30,000 and 45,000 fighters.
Conservative analyses suggest that before the conflict, the Qassam Brigades had at least 18,000 highly trained, disciplined, and ideologically driven frontline soldiers. Although Israel claims that they have eliminated up to 10,000 Hamas fighters by now, this claim is exaggerated. While the Qassam Brigades have sustained significant losses, most of their units remain operational.
According to assessments from the Institute for the Study of War, a reputable US-based think tank, out of the estimated 26 to 30 battalions within the Qassam Brigades, each comprising 400 to 1,000 fighters, only three have been completely incapacitated. Four or five others have been weakened but are still capable of engaging in combat, either independently or by joining forces with other units.
Despite Israel’s efforts to destroy or block tunnel entrances wherever Hamas fighters are discovered, there are indications that Hamas still maintains sufficient underground facilities. These tunnels enable Hamas to move its forces between front lines efficiently and frequently catch the enemy off guard with flanking maneuvers and surprise attacks.
Support from Other Armed Fractions
Reports emerging from Gaza may give the impression that the Hamas armed wing, known as the Qassam Brigades, is solely responsible for all the fighting. However, there are actually at least 12 different armed groups in the region, each affiliated with various political and ideological blocs. While Islamic Jihad is the second most recognized, others include the Popular Resistance Committee and two Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine, one termed “Popular” and the other “Democratic.”
Interestingly, even the Al-Aqsa Martyr Brigades, the armed wing of Fatah, Hamas’s rival, is actively engaged in combat, albeit in coordination with and under the general command of the Qassam Brigades. Despite political differences, the collaboration seems to function smoothly, indicating a pragmatic solution born out of necessity that satisfies all parties involved.
Remarkably, there haven’t been any credible reports of these smaller units succumbing to pressure from Israeli forces, disbanding, deserting, or collaborating with the enemy. Moreover, it’s plausible that some of these factions may temporarily merge with the Qassam Brigades when necessary.
The coexistence of these armed factions while facing a common threat is undoubtedly a testament to the success of Hamas’s strategic approach.
Israel Struggles to Win the War
Israel’s advance within Gaza is cautious and deliberate, primarily aimed at minimizing casualties among its own soldiers. The extensive tunnel network, estimated to span around 500 kilometers, presents a significant advantage for Hamas, allowing them to conceal fighters and weapons.
The Israeli Defense Forces are avoiding direct confrontations with these tunnels, recognizing the risks involved. Losing air support, intelligence, and tank reinforcements in such scenarios could result in heavy casualties for Israeli forces. Therefore, while progress is being made, the fight against Hamas is far from over.
Israel’s second objective was the release of their hostages, but progress has been limited. Only 105 hostages were freed during a brief ceasefire, with just one additional rescue by the defense forces. Official reports attribute many hostage deaths to Israeli airstrikes, while Israel claims they occurred in captivity.
Israel’s strategy involves maintaining military pressure on Hamas to compel the release of hostages, but Hamas remains defiant and continues to resist. Unfortunately, this ongoing conflict has resulted in numerous civilian casualties. In this aspect, Israel’s efforts against Hamas have not yielded success, as the hostages remain in captivity.
Israel’s third objective was to ensure that Hamas would never threaten or attack them again, and for this purpose, they utilized their full force and power. While Israel claimed to have eliminated many of the fighters in the group, key figures remained alive, including the mastermind behind recent attacks. Experts argued that even if the mastermind and key leaders survived, it would still be a significant victory for Hamas, despite having fewer missiles and fighters, and be a big blow to Israel’s effort to achieve their goals.
Although Israel has not achieved any significant accomplishments against Hamas yet, the people are standing behind their military and supporting the military combat until all their hostages are released.
In Short
Israel’s goal of eliminating or dismantling Hamas faced challenges as experts emphasized the importance of addressing the root causes behind Hamas’s existence. This included recognizing the need for progress towards a two-state solution and Palestinian statehood in Gaza and the West Bank. However, Israel’s rejection of this solution only fueled Hamas’s efforts to undermine Israel further. To resolve these issues and garner greater support from Arab nations, Israel needed to address the illegal settlement problem.
Although the Israel Defense Forces have managed to inflict significant damage on Hamas and disrupt its network and infrastructure, depending solely on lethal force without a political strategy proves unlikely to eradicate Hamas completely.
