Introduction
Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s 8th president inaugurated on October 20, 2024, marks a significant shift following a decade under Joko Widodo’s leadership. A former general and influential figure, Prabowo’s landslide victory with 59% of the popular vote reflects broad support, totaling over 96 million votes. His nationalist approach, honed during his tenure as Minister of Defense from 2019 to 2024, underscores a focus on military strength and national defense. The change in leadership heralds expectations of a more assertive foreign policy stance, potentially entailing heightened defense spending and a stronger emphasis on national security in the context of escalating US-China tensions.
Indonesia’s pivotal position in Southeast Asia and its role in regional geopolitics magnify the importance of Prabowo’s foreign policy direction. Traditionally non-aligned, Indonesia has delicately navigated relations with major global powers, notably the US and China. Prabowo’s anticipated shift towards a more assertive foreign policy could reshape Indonesia’s diplomatic landscape. The nation’s potential entry into BRICS+, despite perceived economic benefits, raises concerns about alignment with China and opposition to Western powers. This move contrasts with Indonesia’s historical non-alignment stance and risks complicating existing partnerships within platforms like the G20 and RCEP. As the global stage evolves amidst the rise of BRICS+, including new members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, Indonesia faces a complex decision that could impact its regional and global positioning. Critical evaluation is crucial to ensure that Indonesia’s partnerships and engagements align with its strategic aspirations and values, especially amidst the intricate dynamics of international relations.
Historical Context
Since gaining independence in 1945, Indonesia has upheld a policy of non-alignment, seeking to maintain neutrality despite shifting global power dynamics. This approach took on a prominent role during the Cold War when Indonesia became one of the founding members of the Non-Aligned Movement. This movement was aimed at avoiding alignment with any major power blocs. A defining moment in Indonesia’s non-aligned policy came with the 1955 Bandung Conference, which the country hosted. This conference laid the groundwork for NAM and stressed principles such as mutual respect for sovereignty, non-interference in internal affairs, and peaceful coexistence.
Indonesia’s approach to foreign policy has varied significantly under different leaders, each adapting the country’s stance to reflect both personal ideology and the demands of the international environment. Under President Sukarno (1945-1967), Indonesia’s foreign policy was confrontational, particularly towards Western powers. Sukarno promoted the concept of the New Emerging Forces (NEFOS) as a coalition of newly independent states and revolutionary groups opposed to the Old Established Forces (OLDEFOS), which represented Western imperial powers. Indonesia took an active stance in global forums, advocating for anti-colonial movements and pushing for a new world order led by developing nations. However, following a CIA-supported coup in 1965, President Suharto (1967-1998) led a dramatic shift towards pro-Western alignment. Suharto strengthened ties with the United States and distanced Indonesia from China, especially in light of regional tensions. During this period, Indonesia became involved in several regional conflicts, including the controversial invasion of East Timor in 1975, marking a significant shift from Sukarno’s more independent stance.
More recently, President Joko Widodo (2014-2024) adopted a “free and active” foreign policy, embodying a balance between Western and Asian alliances. Under Widodo, Indonesia strengthened economic ties with China while remaining engaged with traditional allies like the United States.
Prabowo Subianto’s Foreign Policy
Prabowo Subianto’s foreign policy approach is a blend of nationalism and pragmatism, aimed increase Indonesia’s sovereignty, security, and economic wellbeing through strategic alliances. The former general turned president is dedicated to enhance Indonesia’s defense capabilities by modernizing its armed forces and defense expenditures. Central to Prabowo’s vision is the preservation of Indonesia’s non-aligned status, steering clear of overreliance on any single global power bloc. His commitment to a “free and active” foreign policy strategy signifies Indonesia’s quest for autonomy and influence.
Prabowo has demonstrated a balanced diplomatic approach by actively engaging with both China and the United States. Noteworthy was his visit to Beijing in April 2024, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and solidified ties through agreements totaling approximately $10 billion across various sectors like infrastructure, green energy, digital technology, and agriculture. Concurrently, Prabowo reaffirmed Indonesia’s relationship with the United States by meeting President Joe Biden at the White House in November 2024 to commemorate the 75th anniversary of bilateral ties. Discussions focused on strengthening security cooperation and addressing mutual challenges, such as ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
Strategic Importance of Indonesia
Indonesia’s geopolitical significance is anchored in its strategic location, which places it at the crossroads of key global trade routes. Positioned between the Pacific Ocean, the Malacca Straits, and the Indian Ocean, Indonesia plays a pivotal role in regional and global geopolitics. The country controls crucial maritime chokepoints, with over half of all international shipping passing through its waters, making it a critical hub for global trade. As the largest archipelagic nation in the world, Indonesia’s vast maritime territory not only grants it significant influence over regional security but also enhances its role in maintaining economic stability throughout Southeast Asia. Moreover, as the only Southeast Asian member of the G-20, Indonesia holds a prominent voice in global economic discussions.
Economically, the nation is the largest in Southeast Asia, with a GDP of approximately $1.4 trillion, the world’s tenth-largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity. The country’s economic growth has been driven by key sectors such as manufacturing, services, and natural resources, positioning it as a vital player in the regional and global economy.
In the realm of defense, Indonesia has traditionally focused on addressing internal security threats, including separatism and terrorism. However, the rise of China’s maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea has prompted a reevaluation of Indonesia’s defense strategy. Although Indonesia’s defense budget is relatively modest, accounting for less than 1% of its GDP (compared to Singapore’s 3%), the country has made significant strides in modernizing its military. The government has invested in acquiring new military equipment and technology to enhance Indonesia’s power-projection capabilities, ensuring that it can effectively safeguard its territorial integrity and play an influential role in regional security matters.
Relations with China and the US
The economic partnership between China and Indonesia has grown substantially in recent years, highlighted by a trade volume of approximately $1.39 billion in 2023. This robust trade relationship is supported by a series of bilateral agreements. In 2022, Indonesia and China signed five key agreements focusing on economic, maritime, and trade collaboration. Notably, these agreements include the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway project, a significant infrastructure development, and the establishment of industrial zones such as the Morowali Industrial Park. Additionally, China pledged $21.7 billion in new investments in 2023, which spanned diverse sectors, including e-commerce, industry, agriculture, fisheries, science, technology, and innovation.
Indonesia’s security ties with the United States are solidified through their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which encompasses a wide range of cooperative efforts. This partnership includes collaboration on border security, counter-proliferation, cybersecurity, counterterrorism, maritime security, and humanitarian assistance. A key recent development in this relationship occurred in November 2024, when Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met with U.S. President Joe Biden to discuss further strengthening defense cooperation, with an emphasis on maritime security and counter-terrorism.
Aligning more closely with China offers several potential benefits for Indonesia. Economic growth is a key advantage, as China’s investments and trade agreements help boost Indonesia’s economic infrastructure. In particular, collaboration in sectors such as renewable energy and electric vehicles offers opportunities for technological transfer, enhancing Indonesia’s capabilities in these rapidly growing industries. However, there are also risks associated with this closer alignment. One concern is the potential for increased debt dependency, as large-scale Chinese investments could lead to Indonesia becoming more economically reliant on China. Additionally, aligning too closely with China could create geopolitical tensions, particularly with other regional powers and the United States, possibly complicating Indonesia’s foreign policy and security strategy.
Aligning with the United States offers several benefits for Indonesia, particularly in terms of advanced defense technology. Access to cutting-edge military equipment from the U.S. enhances Indonesia’s ability to secure its maritime borders and address security threats. Economically, strong ties with the U.S. can open up new markets and investment opportunities for Indonesian businesses. However, there are also risks to this alignment. One potential downside is the political pressure that Indonesia may face in regional and global affairs, as the U.S. could exert influence over Indonesia’s foreign policy choices. Additionally, Indonesia faces the challenge of balancing its relations with both China and the U.S., as aligning too closely with one power may risk alienating the other, making it difficult for Indonesia to navigate its geopolitical positioning in a region marked by intensifying rivalries.
Balancing Act: Examples of Successful Non-Aligned Policies
Several countries have successfully implemented non-aligned policies, balancing relations with major powers while promoting their own national interests.
- India has maintained a non-aligned stance since the Cold War, engaging in strategic partnerships with both the United States and Russia. India has participated in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, India has continued to foster strong ties with Russia, particularly in defense cooperation.
- Nepal offers a more localized example of balancing relations between two powerful neighbors, China and India. Nepal has adopted a hedging strategy, participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative to secure much-needed infrastructure investments, while simultaneously maintaining strong economic and cultural ties with India.
- Egypt provides another example of a successful non-aligned policy, particularly during the Cold War when it maintained relations with both the United States and the Soviet Union. In recent years, Egypt has continued to balance its foreign policy by engaging in regional diplomacy and participating in international organizations like the United Nations and the Arab League.
Potential Scenarios and Their Impact on Indonesia’s Future
Several potential scenarios outline the trajectory Indonesia might follow in the coming years, each with its own set of benefits and risks.
- Scenario 1: Stronger Alignment with China
A closer alignment with China could bring significant economic advantages to Indonesia, including increased investments in infrastructure and technology transfer. For instance, China’s $21.7 billion investment pledge in 2023 covers key sectors such as e-commerce, industry, and agriculture, which could bolster Indonesia’s economic growth. However, this scenario also comes with potential risks. Indonesia could face increased debt dependency, as large-scale investments could strain the country’s finances over time. Moreover, closer ties with China might lead to geopolitical tensions with other regional powers, particularly in Southeast Asia. - Scenario 2: Stronger Alignment with the US
Aligning more closely with the United States offers several strategic advantages, particularly in terms of military cooperation and economic opportunities. Access to advanced military technology and equipment, such as the U.S.-supplied F-16 fighter jets and Apache helicopters, would significantly enhance Indonesia’s defense capabilities. Economically, stronger ties with the U.S. could open new markets and foster investment opportunities. However, such an alignment might also expose Indonesia to political pressures from the U.S., particularly in regional and global affairs. - Scenario 3: Maintaining a Non-Aligned Stance
Maintaining a non-aligned stance would allow Indonesia to preserve its sovereignty and diplomatic flexibility. This approach would enable Indonesia to engage with multiple partners, including both China and the U.S., without being overly dependent on any single power. Non-alignment has allowed countries like India to successfully maintain strategic partnerships with both the U.S. and Russia while promoting their own interests in global affairs. However, non-alignment is not without its challenges. Indonesia could face limitations in accessing certain resources and alliances, and may find it difficult to secure favorable trade deals without the backing of a major global power. Additionally, non-aligned nations may find themselves isolated in geopolitical conflicts where they lack strong allies to support their positions.
