Waves crash against the hull as a small Philippine fishing boat edges closer to a towering Chinese naval vessel in the South China Sea, its crew caught in an uneasy standoff. In these disputed waters, every encounter can feel like a warning shot—a glimpse into a larger struggle playing out between China’s assertive territorial claims and the Philippines’ determination to protect its sovereignty. With Chinese patrols tightening their hold, the Philippines finds itself in the line of fire in a tense regional chess game, where each move carries implications for Southeast Asia’s future.
Enter Donald Trump, the former U.S. president known for his tough stance on China. His potential return to power brings questions of renewed American support for the Philippines, but with a caveat: would Trump’s strategy be bold enough to counter Beijing’s aggressive push, or too volatile to build a lasting security framework? As Filipino leaders weigh the U.S. alliance amid growing Chinese encroachment, the stakes are clear—America’s support must be more than just words to address the complex pressures defining the South China Sea in 2024.
A Quick Look at China-Philippines Relations: Friend or Foe?
The relationship between China and the Philippines is a complex web of economic ties and territorial disputes. Over the past decade, China has steadily increased its presence in the South China Sea, constructing artificial islands and asserting control over maritime zones that the Philippines also claims. Despite legal victories in international courts, the Philippines has found itself balancing between Chinese economic incentives such as infrastructure investment and trade partnerships and the challenge of standing up to China’s territorial ambitions. This push-pull dynamic has left the Philippines both dependent on and wary of its powerful neighbor, grappling with how to assert its sovereignty without jeopardizing economic growth.
U.S.-Philippines Alliance: An Enduring Yet Evolving Partnership
For over 70 years, the U.S. and the Philippines have shared a robust defense partnership rooted in their Mutual Defense Treaty, which promises U.S. support in the event of an attack on Philippine forces. Recent years have seen a renewed focus on strengthening military cooperation, with both nations participating in joint exercises and increased U.S. access to Philippine bases.
As China’s influence in the region grows, this alliance is being tested: the Philippines seeks reassurance that the U.S. will stand by its commitments, while the U.S. aims to counterbalance China’s power in Asia. In this delicate geopolitical landscape, the U.S.-Philippines alliance remains critical, yet both countries must adapt to shifting regional dynamics.
South China Sea Tensions: A Volatile Maritime Crossroads
The South China Sea, one of the world’s most critical maritime routes, is now a flashpoint in global geopolitics. Over $3 trillion in trade passes through these waters annually, yet competing territorial claims have turned this vital sea into a battleground. China’s assertive actions constructing artificial islands, militarizing outposts, and enforcing claims that span nearly the entire sea have raised alarm among Southeast Asian nations and the broader international community. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and other claimants find themselves grappling with how to assert their sovereignty in the face of China’s sweeping claims, backed by an expanding navy.
With the U.S. and allied nations conducting freedom-of-navigation operations to challenge China’s reach, the South China Sea has become a theater of strategic posturing and diplomatic tension. As each nation shores up its alliances and defense strategies, the risk of escalation looms, creating an ever-shifting, high-stakes environment that could define regional security for decades to come.
2024: A Year of High-Stakes Tensions for the Philippines
In 2024, the Philippines found itself facing a surge in direct confrontations with China over contested territories in the South China Sea, testing its resolve to protect national sovereignty amid intensifying superpower rivalries. Throughout the year, China’s repeated violations of Philippine territorial integrity heightened tensions, with at least five significant incidents drawing international attention and sparking domestic calls for a stronger response.
Key confrontations underscored the gravity of the threat: in April, Philippine Coast Guard vessels encountered aggressive maneuvers and water cannon attacks from Chinese ships at Scarborough Shoal, resulting in damage to the Philippine vessels and renewed outrage over restricted access. Another critical episode occurred on June 17, when Chinese Coast Guard personnel boarded Philippine naval vessels near the Second Thomas Shoal, interfering with a resupply mission and seizing equipment, actions the Philippines condemned as “piracy.” As these encounters unfolded, the U.S. reaffirmed its support for the Philippines, increasing joint military exercises and pledging defense aid.
Amid this escalating regional instability, the Philippines has been forced to recalibrate its diplomatic and defense strategies. Balancing its alliance with the U.S. against a growing need for sustainable security measures, 2024 has been a year of heightened tensions, with the Philippines navigating a complex path to safeguard its interests in one of the world’s most contested waters.
Contested Islands: China and the Philippines Stand Firm Amid Rising Tensions
The South China Sea’s contested islands, including the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal, are at the heart of a simmering conflict between China and the Philippines. China claims nearly the entire region as its historic territory, aggressively asserting control through extensive island-building and militarization efforts. These moves have allowed Beijing to strengthen its maritime presence, intensifying regional disputes and drawing international attention.
The Philippines, however, remains resolute in its claims, backed by a 2016 ruling from The Hague that invalidated China’s sweeping assertions. Despite legal victories, the Philippines faces the challenge of enforcing its rights in the face of China’s formidable economic and military power. Manila has ramped up its diplomatic outreach, strengthening defense ties with the U.S. and regional allies, while reinforcing its maritime defenses. As both nations hold firm to their positions, the battle over these islands symbolizes a larger geopolitical struggle for influence in the Indo-Pacific, with high stakes for stability in the region.
U.S. FONOPS and Military Drills in the South China Sea: Asserting Influence in Contested Waters
The United States has intensified its Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) and military exercises in the South China Sea, underscoring its commitment to uphold open access to one of the world’s most contested maritime regions. As China expands its claims, the U.S. has increased naval and aerial patrols through these disputed waters, regularly challenging China’s territorial assertions by navigating within 12 nautical miles of the islands Beijing controls.
These FONOPS, coupled with joint military drills alongside allies like the Philippines and Japan, demonstrate the U.S.’s resolve to maintain a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” The exercises range from search-and-rescue simulations to advanced combat operations, preparing allied forces to respond to potential conflicts in this volatile area. For Southeast Asian nations, the U.S.’s presence signals a stabilizing counterbalance to China’s expansionism, even as Beijing criticizes these drills as provocations. Amid heightened regional tension, these operations reinforce the strategic importance of the South China Sea and the U.S.’s unwavering stance in its defense of international waters.
Trump’s Perception of the South China Sea: A ‘Tough on China’ Approach
During his presidency, Donald Trump took a markedly confrontational stance on the South China Sea (SCS) issue, positioning himself as a strong advocate for countering China’s maritime expansion. Trump’s administration viewed China’s aggressive territorial claims and militarization of the SCS as a direct challenge to international law and regional stability. His approach was characterized by a robust defense of freedom of navigation, as the U.S. conducted numerous Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) to challenge China’s claims and affirm global maritime rights.
Trump’s broader foreign policy strategy, marked by “America First,” sought to confront China not only on trade but also on security matters. In the SCS, this meant increased U.S. military presence and support for countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, despite some fluctuating rhetoric. Trump’s perception was clear: China’s actions threatened global trade routes and the sovereignty of smaller nations, and he was willing to back allies with a mix of military power and economic leverage to curb Beijing’s ambitions. However, his approach also involved diplomatic ambiguity, occasionally downplaying the urgency of SCS tensions in favor of trade deals and economic competition.
In essence, while Trump’s policy reflected a hardline stance on China, it was also a balancing act, blending military posturing with economic negotiations to shape the broader Indo-Pacific balance of power.
Trump’s Views on the Philippines: A Complex Relationship of Cooperation and Pragmatism
Donald Trump’s view of the Philippines during his presidency was shaped by a pragmatic mix of economic interests and geopolitical considerations. While his relationship with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was often marked by personal camaraderie, Trump was also cautious of the broader strategic importance of the Philippines in the U.S.-China rivalry.
Trump recognized the Philippines as a key ally in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the context of the ongoing South China Sea tensions. His administration supported Manila’s stance against China’s aggressive territorial claims, bolstering defense cooperation through joint military exercises and a reaffirmation of the Mutual Defense Treaty. However, Trump’s “America First” agenda often led him to focus more on the economic aspects of the bilateral relationship, pushing for trade deals and downplaying traditional diplomatic niceties.
While Trump praised Duterte for his tough stance on drug crime, he also sought to balance the U.S.’s strategic interests in the region with Duterte’s more unpredictable approach to foreign policy. The relationship was marked by occasional tensions, especially over human rights issues, but Trump’s primary focus was on ensuring that the Philippines remained aligned with U.S. security interests amid growing Chinese influence. Ultimately, Trump’s approach to the Philippines was driven by a mix of strategic necessity, economic pragmatism, and a personalized style of diplomacy, creating a relationship that was as complex as it was consequential.
The Broader Geopolitical Spectrum and Anticipated Trump Policy Stance: A Return to ‘America First’
As global geopolitics continues to shift, the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has sparked speculation about how his policy approach might evolve. While much of Trump’s foreign policy legacy was defined by a staunch “America First” ideology, his anticipated stance on key global issues is expected to reflect both continuity and adaptation to new challenges in an increasingly multipolar world.
In the Indo-Pacific, particularly with regard to the South China Sea and Taiwan, Trump’s policies will likely emphasize a tough, confrontational stance toward China. His administration was marked by escalating trade wars, Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) in contested waters, and military support for regional allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. As China’s influence grows, Trump is expected to double down on countering Beijing’s military and economic dominance, possibly leveraging enhanced military alliances and increasing U.S. naval presence in the region. However, his approach will also likely be tempered by an increasing focus on economic negotiations, ensuring that trade deals align with American interests.
Beyond the Indo-Pacific, Trump’s broader geopolitical outlook is expected to prioritize direct action over multilateral engagement. His skepticism of international institutions such as the United Nations and NATO may resurface, with an emphasis on reshaping alliances and trade relationships to secure tangible benefits for the U.S. From Europe to the Middle East, his “America First” doctrine will likely continue to advocate for policies that place U.S. security and economic dominance at the center, potentially leading to a more transactional and less diplomatic approach in foreign relations.
Will Trump Introduce New Policies for the Littoral States of the South China Sea?
Donald Trump’s return to office promises to bring a reshaping of U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding the South China Sea (SCS)—a region where geopolitical tensions have steadily intensified. As the South China Sea remains a flashpoint of territorial disputes, primarily between China and various Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, Trump’s policy approach toward the littoral states of the SCS will likely evolve with a mix of continuity and assertive recalibration.
Reaffirming U.S. Commitment to Freedom of Navigation
During his first term, Trump made it clear that the U.S. would not tolerate Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea, particularly with Beijing’s militarization of artificial islands. While his administration was outspoken in its support for the freedom of navigation in international waters, his second term will likely see this commitment deepened with more frequent Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs).
Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. could increase its presence in the region through military drills, joint exercises with allies, and enhanced maritime patrols aimed at challenging China’s territorial claims. This more robust U.S. naval posture is likely to serve as a clear message to China while reassuring littoral states like the Philippines and Vietnam of continued U.S. support for maritime sovereignty.
Strengthening Bilateral Security Pacts with Littoral States
Trump’s America First foreign policy emphasized transactional relationships, and his second term will likely build on these principles, particularly with regard to the littoral states of the South China Sea. Expect the U.S. to offer enhanced military assistance and defense commitments to key regional partners like the Philippines and Vietnam—two countries that are directly impacted by China’s maritime assertions.
This could involve expanding joint military exercises, modernizing naval fleets, and providing advanced defense technology such as Anti-Ship Missiles (ASMs) and surveillance systems. By offering increased military cooperation, Trump would aim to bolster the defense capabilities of these nations, while ensuring they are better equipped to assert their territorial rights in the face of China’s growing influence.
A Renewed Focus on Economic and Energy Security
Economic and energy resources in the South China Sea—specifically the vast undersea oil and gas reserves—are a major point of contention. Trump’s second term will likely include initiatives to support the energy security of littoral states by facilitating energy exploration in the region. Expect the U.S. to work closely with nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia to help unlock these potential resources without falling under China’s dominance. This could take the form of trade deals that favor joint ventures for exploration and extraction, while countering Chinese infrastructure projects in the region.
Moreover, Trump may push for stronger economic ties, aiming to provide alternatives to China’s growing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by offering U.S. financing for energy and infrastructure projects. This would be part of a broader effort to counter China’s economic influence in the region and assert American leadership in Indo-Pacific trade.
Ramping Up Diplomatic Efforts with ASEAN
While Trump has often been more focused on military and economic leverage than diplomacy, his second term may bring a shift toward greater diplomatic engagement with ASEAN countries, especially given the increasing instability in the region. Expect more active U.S. participation in ASEAN forums, where Trump may push for unified action against China’s SCS claims. At the same time, Trump’s administration could reinforce multilateral agreements among ASEAN states on freedom of navigation, as well as joint efforts to combat Chinese encroachments.
Furthermore, the U.S. is likely to continue supporting the rules-based international order, leveraging its influence in institutions like the United Nations and International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) to rally international support against China’s maritime claims.
A More Aggressive Stance on Chinese Military Expansion
China’s continued military buildup in the South China Sea—particularly its construction of artificial islands equipped with airstrips, missile systems, and radar—will likely elicit an even more aggressive response from the Trump administration. As China’s presence grows, the U.S. may seek to counter China’s military power in the region by increasing its own military capabilities in strategic positions like the Philippines’ Palawan Island or even expanding military access agreements with Indonesia or Malaysia. Trump’s strategy may include deploying cutting-edge drones, cybersecurity operations, and missile defense systems to ensure a strategic balance of power in the region.
Endnote
While Trump’s return to the White House is likely to bolster U.S. involvement in the South China Sea, his approach to protecting the Philippines from China’s rising influence will depend on an intricate mix of military power, economic leverage, and diplomatic strategy. As China continues its pursuit of regional dominance, the U.S. will face mounting pressure to craft policies that can truly safeguard the interests of its allies in the face of an ever-assertive Beijing. The coming years will test Trump’s ability to navigate this delicate geopolitical challenge.
