The South China Sea, a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean, has long been a hotbed of geopolitical tension. It is surrounded by several nations, including the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, and China, each with varying claims over its resources. The recent introduction of new coastguard rules by China has escalated these tensions, particularly with the Philippines.Â
Historical Context
The South China Sea dispute is not a recent phenomenon. Its roots trace back to the post-World War II era when newly independent nations began asserting their sovereignty over the sea and its islands. The discovery of oil and gas reserves in the 1960s and 1970s further intensified these territorial disputes.
Countries bordering the South China Sea have long relied on their coastguards to enforce and protect their territorial claims. These maritime law enforcement agencies play a crucial role in asserting sovereignty, preventing illegal activities, and ensuring maritime security. For instance, China’s coastguard is one of the largest in the world, boasting around 200 ships, including large patrol vessels and cutters equipped with advanced technology and weaponry. Recent incidents include the 2023 clashes between Chinese coastguard vessels and Philippine boats around the Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines accused China of using water cannons and laser pointers to harass its vessels, leading to heightened tensions and international condemnation.
Similarly, the Philippines has been modernizing its coastguard fleet to protect its maritime claims. In April 2023, the Philippine Coast Guard accused Chinese vessels of “dangerous maneuvers” and “blocking” their patrols near the Scarborough Shoal. This incident underscores the ongoing confrontations and the crucial role of the coastguard in maintaining national sovereignty. Vietnam, too, has expanded its coastguard fleet, which now includes vessels capable of extended patrols in disputed waters. In 2022, Vietnamese coastguard ships intercepted Chinese fishing boats in the Paracel Islands region, leading to several arrests and diplomatic protests from China. These recent confrontations highlight the persistent volatility in the South China Sea and the central role of coastguards in enforcing territorial claims.
The New Coastguard Rules
On June 15, 2024, China implemented new coastguard rules allowing it to detain trespassers without trial. These rules enforce a 2021 law permitting China’s coastguard to use lethal force against foreign ships in waters it claims. The rules have sparked international concerns, with the Philippines describing them as “worrisome” and a “provocation.”
The Philippine Response
In response to these new rules, Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief Romeo Brawner urged Filipino fishermen to continue their activities in the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea. He reassured the fishermen, stating, “That’s our message to our fishermen, for them not to be afraid but to just go ahead with their normal activities in our exclusive economic zone.” He emphasized that the Philippines has the right to exploit resources in the area, so the fishermen have no reason to fear.
International Reactions
The international community has expressed concern over these new rules. Taiwan’s coastguard stated it would strengthen fishing protection tasks, defend the safety of fishermen, and ensure the rights and interests of shipping while defending national sovereignty. Taiwan also called on China “not to use this reason to justify unilateral acts that undermine regional peace.”
The United States, which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines and is legally bound to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, stated that Chinese domestic law “has no applicability to other states’ flagged vessels in other states’ exclusive economic zones or in the high seas, according to the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention.” The U.S. State Department spokesperson added, “Enforcement would be highly escalatory and detrimental to regional peace and security,” urging Beijing and all claimants to align their maritime claims with international law.
China’s Stance
China has increased military activities near Taiwan, which it views as its own territory, and is involved in a standoff with the Philippines in the disputed South China Sea. The Chinese foreign ministry has previously stated that the new rules were meant to protect maritime order and that there was no need to worry if there was no illegal behavior by the individuals and bodies involved.
Expert Opinions and Analysis
Experts have voiced diverse opinions on the South China Sea dispute. Dr. Euan Graham, an expert in Asia-Pacific security, argues that China’s actions are part of a broader strategy to assert dominance in the region. “China’s coastguard law is a manifestation of its desire to control the South China Sea through legal and military means,” Graham notes. He suggests that the international community must adopt a firm stance to uphold international law and prevent further escalation.
Similarly, Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, highlights the role of international diplomacy. “Multilateral efforts, including ASEAN’s involvement, are crucial in managing the South China Sea tensions,” Glaser remarks. She emphasizes the need for a cohesive regional approach to counterbalance China’s influence and ensure the peaceful resolution of disputes.
Military Dynamics
China’s military buildup in the South China Sea, including the construction of artificial islands and the deployment of advanced weaponry, has shifted the strategic balance in the region. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has significantly increased its presence, conducting regular patrols and military exercises. China has militarized at least three of the islands it built in the South China Sea, arming them with missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and fighter jets. This aggressive move threatens all nations operating nearby.
In response, the United States and its allies have intensified their military activities, emphasizing freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s claims. These operations underscore the U.S. commitment to maintaining open sea lanes and supporting allies in the face of coercive actions. The U.S. Navy destroyer USS John S. McCain recently carried out a FONOP near the disputed Paracel Islands to uphold the right of innocent passage, including for naval vessels, in the face of restrictions imposed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The U.S. has also been strengthening its defense alliance with the Philippines, which has faced encroachment on islands and fisheries by the Chinese coast guard and government-backed fleets.
Historical Incidents
The South China Sea has witnessed numerous incidents of conflict and confrontation over the past decade:
2012 Scarborough Shoal Standoff: Chinese vessels effectively blocked access to the shoal, leading to a prolonged impasse that ended with China’s continued control over the area.
2014 Oil Rig Standoff: China’s deployment of an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam sparked violent anti-China protests in Vietnam and a series of maritime clashes.
March 2024 Incident: Chinese coast guard ships hit a Philippine supply boat with water cannons near a disputed shoal, causing injuries to its navy crew members and heavy damage to the vessel.
May 2024 Incident: The Philippine military’s airdrops at Ren’ai Jiao hit headlines when China “confiscated their supplies,” escalating tensions further.
These incidents underscore the volatile nature of the South China Sea dispute and the urgent need for a peaceful resolution.
Geopolitical Implications
The South China Sea is not only a regional issue but also a global concern due to its strategic importance. Approximately one-third of global shipping passes through its waters, translating to over $3 trillion in goods annually. The sea is also rich in biodiversity and holds significant untapped oil and gas reserves. Consequently, the actions of claimant states, particularly China, have far-reaching implications for international trade and energy security.
In the event of a military conflict in the South China Sea, most shipping from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa destined for Asia and the U.S. west coast would be diverted around the south of Australia. This diversion would lead to additional shipping costs, reducing economic activity worldwide, with dire effects on countries at the epicenter.
A study by the US National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that Taiwan’s economy could contract by a third, while Singapore’s could fall by 22%. Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia could suffer falls of 10% to 15%. China’s economy would face a loss of 0.7% because it has large domestic markets and ports outside the potential conflict zone.
The territorial and maritime disputes have blocked the development of new oil and gas resources in the majority of the South China Sea, particularly in what could be more attractive deeper-water areas. This has significant implications for energy security in the region and beyond.
Regional Reactions
The new coastguard rules have prompted varied responses from other claimant states. Vietnam, which has had its own confrontations with China over maritime boundaries, expressed concern over the potential for increased aggression. Vietnamese officials stressed the importance of adherence to international law and called for diplomatic dialogue to resolve disputes.
Malaysia and Brunei, while less vocal, have also underscored the significance of maintaining freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. Both countries rely heavily on maritime routes for their economic activities and have a vested interest in preserving stability in the region.
Legal Perspectives
The UNCLOS framework provides a legal basis for resolving maritime disputes, yet its effectiveness hinges on the willingness of states to comply with its provisions. The 2016 arbitration ruling, while legally binding, has been largely ignored by China. This has raised questions about the enforcement mechanisms of international law and the role of global institutions in addressing such conflicts.
John Negroponte, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, emphasizes the importance of international legal frameworks. “Adherence to international law, particularly UNCLOS, is essential for maintaining order in the South China Sea,” Negroponte asserts. He advocates for greater international cooperation to uphold legal norms and deter unilateral actions that threaten regional stability.
The Role of ASEAN
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plays a pivotal role in managing the South China Sea dispute. As a regional bloc, ASEAN has sought to balance its members’ interests with the broader goal of maintaining peace and stability. The organization’s efforts include promoting a Code of Conduct (COC) to govern behavior in the South China Sea.
However, progress on the COC has been slow, with differing priorities and varying degrees of dependence on China among ASEAN members. Despite these challenges, ASEAN’s diplomatic engagement remains a critical component of the regional security architecture.
ASEAN’s role in the South China Sea conflict has been examined by looking at the actions of two non-claimant states that functioned as country coordinators for ASEAN–China relations from 2012 to 2018: Thailand and Singapore. The efforts of these two countries as honest brokers shed light on how ASEAN can deal with this ongoing crisis to ensure the organization’s ongoing effectiveness and sustain regional harmony.
ASEAN has placed the promotion of regional peace and security at the forefront of its endeavors, evolving a comprehensive regional security architecture by building ASEAN-centric regional security frameworks. These frameworks include the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, which undertakes cooperation in a broad range of areas, including maritime cooperation.
Despite the efforts made by ASEAN to balance the influence of great powers, its individual member states craft their own diplomatic relations according to their economic needs and development.
End Note
The South China Sea dispute, compounded by China’s new coastguard rules, represents a multifaceted challenge with significant geopolitical, legal, and economic dimensions. The international community’s response, the resilience of ASEAN, and the adherence to international law will play crucial roles in shaping the future of this vital region. As tensions rise, the path to a peaceful resolution lies in diplomacy, dialogue, and a steadfast commitment to upholding international norms.
