Introduction
If Vietnam were to allow US bases on its soil, it would represent a significant deepening of the security relationship between the two countries, in times of heightened tensions with China over maritime disputes. The prospect of US military presence in Vietnam would signal a strategic shift, reflecting both parties’ desire to enhance cooperation and address shared security concerns in the region. However, Vietnam’s cautious approach, driven by a need to balance between foreign partners and its concerns about its larger neighbor, China, could shape the extent and nature of this security relationship with the United States.
A Historical Context
During the Vietnam War from 1965 to 1973, American troops were deployed in South Vietnam to assist in its defence against communist forces. However, the conflict highlighted the limitations of American military might in the face of determined guerilla tactics and political complexities. U.S. policymakers aimed to support a non-communist government in Vietnam, but encountered challenges as their ambitious goals collided with the harsh realities of combat and nation-building efforts. The decision of American involvement in Vietnam remained highly contentious within the annals of twentieth-century foreign policy, marking a pivotal and controversial era in American military history.
Vietnam’s historical resistance against external aggression extends beyond the Vietnam War. Notably, in 1979, China launched a punitive invasion of Vietnam due to its involvement in Cambodia. Despite intense fighting, Vietnamese troops remained in Cambodia until 1989, illustrating Vietnam’s resilience and commitment to defending its interests against formidable adversaries.
The Vietnam War profoundly impacted American society, fostering what was termed the “Vietnam Syndrome” by President Richard Nixon. This concept encapsulates the war’s enduring influence on U.S. foreign and military policy, leading to increased caution among policymakers about deploying forces into conflicts. Moreover, the conflict sparked significant domestic opposition, with graphic war coverage on television fuelling widespread anti-war sentiment. Iconic protests, such as those outside the Pentagon, reflected a broader societal disillusionment with the war effort.
At its peak, the U.S. had approximately 82,000 combat troops stationed in Vietnam, with military leaders advocating for an additional 175,000 troops by the end of 1965 to reinforce the struggling South Vietnamese army. The war left deep scars on both Vietnam and the United States, shaping their trajectories in ways that continue to reverberate today. In contemporary era, the currents of time are shifting once more, and Vietnam must decide whether to oppose this tide or ride along with it. Let us take an in depth look at the situation being faced by Vietnam again.
What if, Vietnam allows US bases on its soil?
If Vietnam were to consider allowing U.S. bases on its soil, this situation would represent a significant shift in the strategic landscape of the South China Sea region, with implications for U.S.-Vietnam relations and the broader Indo-Pacific balance of power. Such a decision would likely be influenced by Vietnam’s growing concerns over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific region.
Firstly, Vietnam’s willingness to host U.S. bases would signal a deepening of security cooperation and alignment with American strategic interests. It would suggest that Hanoi views U.S. military presence as a critical deterrent against Chinese maritime expansionism and coercive tactics in disputed waters. This move could potentially enable closer coordination between U.S. and Vietnamese forces, enhancing maritime domain awareness and strengthening Vietnam’s defense capabilities.
Secondly, allowing U.S. bases on its soil would likely face internal political challenges within Vietnam. The decision would need a reassessment of Vietnam’s longstanding policy of avoiding military alliances and foreign bases on its territory. Therefore, any move towards hosting U.S. bases would require careful domestic deliberation and potentially a shift in Vietnam’s defense posture, which traditionally emphasizes self-reliance and non-alignment.
Thirdly, from the U.S. perspective, the establishment of bases in Vietnam would offer strategic advantages, providing closer proximity to key maritime routes and potential areas of contention in the South China Sea. It would enhance U.S. operational flexibility and responsiveness in the region, enabling more effective support for regional allies and partners in deterring Chinese aggression.
However, the decision would undoubtedly be a complex and sensitive one, with implications for regional stability and great power competition for leverage in the South China Sea.
Potential implications, if Vietnam were to allow US troops
If Vietnam were to consider allowing US troops on its soil, the potential implications would be far-reaching across multiple dimensions, encompassing strategic, geopolitical, socio-economic, legal, and environmental aspects.
Strategically, Vietnam would need to carefully manage its relations between the US and China, as hosting US troops could signal a closer alignment with the US-led security framework in the region, potentially altering Vietnam’s position vis-à-vis China. This move might raise grave concerns in Beijing, viewing any US military presence as a direct challenge to its regional influence.
From a geopolitical perspective, the presence of US troops could contribute to regional stability by deterring aggression and fostering cooperation. However, it could also strain Vietnam’s relations within ASEAN, potentially impacting the organization’s unity and collective security efforts.
Legally and politically, Vietnam would face negotiations involving bilateral agreements when determining the terms of hosting US troops. This would include considerations around foreign troop presence, legal frameworks, and constitutional processes, with significant implications for domestic politics and public opinion.
Economically, hosting US troops could stimulate infrastructure development, spurring economic growth through construction projects and job creation.
Socially and environmentally, Vietnam’s historical context, including legacies from the Vietnam War such as environmental issues stemming from Agent Orange, would influence public perceptions and debates surrounding any foreign troop presence.
Militarily, allowing US bases could provide Vietnam access to advanced military technologies, training, and intelligence sharing, potentially enhancing defense capabilities through joint exercises and cooperation.
The integration of US troops into Vietnam’s military landscape would necessitate a reassessment of Vietnam’s military doctrine and strategic planning, particularly in addressing challenges in the South China Sea in the wake of China’s growing military assertiveness. This would likely lead to increase transparency and public discourse on defense matters, prompting Vietnam’s Ministry of National Defense to engage in more open discussions and provide clearer information on military strategy.
Ultimately, this decision would require deft diplomacy to maintain strategic autonomy and navigate the complexities of major power rivalries.
Balancing Against China
Vietnam has adeptly managed its relationships with major powers like the United States and China by employing a strategic framework that balances deterrence, assurance, and hedging strategies. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and challenges such as disputes in the South China Sea, Vietnam has demonstrated diplomatic agility and strategic autonomy, advocating for a rules-based international order to safeguard its sovereignty and mitigate the risk of conflict.
The elevation of the US-Vietnam relationship to a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ in September 2023 was anticipated to provoke a backlash from China. However, Beijing’s response was relatively restrained, with Chinese President Xi Jinping subsequently visiting Vietnam soon after US President Joe Biden. Chinese press coverage of Xi’s visit indicated that China-Vietnam relations remain positive, highlighting Vietnam’s skillful management of its ties with both great powers.
Vietnam’s historical experience of repelling invasions has shaped its approach to great power relations. Recognizing the importance of maintaining robust national defense capabilities for deterrence, Vietnam has prioritized modernizing its military, particularly focusing on maritime capabilities given the ongoing risks in the South China Sea. Deterrence, while not foolproof against determined adversaries, serves to deter opportunistic acts of aggression.
However, deterrence alone is insufficient to ensure peace. Vietnam emphasizes assurance through diplomatic channels to signal its commitment to mutually beneficial cooperation with great powers without compromising security or interests. By framing partnerships like the one with the United States as oriented towards peace, cooperation, and sustainable development, Vietnam seeks to assuage concerns and avoid miscalculations.
In addition to deterrence and assurance, Vietnam employs active hedging to counterbalance risks associated with great power dynamics. Learning from US-China rapprochement, Vietnam actively diversifies its foreign relations, engaging with middle powers like Japan, India, South Korea, and Australia. This approach prevents over-reliance on any single power while expanding diplomatic leverage and accessing diverse economic, military, and technological benefits.
Vietnam’s foreign policy signifies the importance of ASEAN in maintaining peace and stability in Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. By working closely with like-minded partners, Vietnam enhances collective agency amid major power competition.
In the context of balancing against China’s expanding presence in the South China Sea, such a decision would necessitate a reevaluation and potential adjustment of Vietnam’s military doctrine to accommodate the presence of foreign forces on its territory. The concept of “people’s war” would likely evolve to encompass the collaborative efforts of Vietnamese and US forces in protecting the nation’s interests, including defending against external threats in the South China Sea.
To navigate this complex environment, a proactive yet principled approach can safeguard Vietnamese sovereignty and stability, ensuring peace while steering clear of conflict.
Strategic Considerations
Hosting US troops in Vietnam offers significant potential benefits and risks that must be carefully considered within the broader context of regional geopolitics. On one hand, Vietnam stands to gain access to advanced military technology, equipment, and training by hosting US troops, which could greatly enhance its defense capabilities and modernize its armed forces. Additionally, cooperation with the US military would enable intelligence sharing, a critical component in addressing security threats in the region effectively. However, this strategic partnership comes with inherent risks, particularly in relation to Vietnam’s complex relationship with China.
China perceives any US military presence in the region as a challenge to its influence and could respond with diplomatic or economic pressure, potentially straining Vietnam’s relations with its powerful neighbor and escalating tensions in the region.
Ultimately, Vietnam’s decision regarding hosting US troops requires a balanced evaluation of current strategic priorities and regional dynamics. While the benefits of enhanced defense capabilities and intelligence cooperation are compelling, Vietnam will have to carefully assess and mitigate the potential risks, especially in managing its delicate relationship with China.
Regional Dynamics
Vietnam’s potential decision to host US troops is situated within a broader context of regional alliances and historical legacies. Examining examples from neighboring countries highlights the strategic importance of US military presence in the Asia-Pacific. South Korea’s alliance with the US involves hosting a significant number of troops at bases like Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base, is important for regional security and deterrence against North Korea. Similarly, Australia hosts US Marines in Darwin, enhancing interoperability and reinforcing US engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Thailand, historically a key US ally during the Vietnam War era, continues to engage with the US through joint exercises and security dialogues, even after the closure of major bases.
Vietnam’s decision to potentially host US troops carries significant geopolitical implications, particularly in the context of US-China relations and ASEAN unity. China closely monitors US military activities in the region, and Vietnam’s stance could influence China’s behavior and perceptions of regional power dynamics. Within ASEAN, Vietnam’s decision would impact the bloc’s unity, with member states balancing between neutrality and closer alignment with major powers. Additionally, economic considerations play a crucial role, given Vietnam’s substantial economic ties with both the US and China. Balancing security interests with economic cooperation presents a challenge, with potential benefits such as infrastructure development and economic opportunities stemming from hosting US troops.
End Note
In essence, Vietnam’s decision on hosting US troops involves carefully considering the current global situation, understanding its history, and thinking about how it affects stability in the region. The mix of alliances, long-standing effects of past wars, and economic needs make Vietnam’s position complex within the Asia-Pacific region. This decision could upset the balance of power in Southeast Asia and impact relations between the US and China, especially given the disputes over territory in the South China Sea. While it might help keep the region stable by deterring conflict and promoting cooperation, Vietnam’s choice could also increase tensions with China, leading to wider and unprecedented consequences.
