The South China Sea has once again become the stage for a dangerous game of cat and mouse. In late August 2025, Philippine patrols confirmed something alarming—more than two dozen Chinese vessels massed around Scarborough Shoal and Ayungin Shoal. These weren’t just harmless fishing boats. The swarm included China Coast Guard ships, maritime militia lashed together in their notorious “rafting” formation, and even units of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. That last part is especially worrying—because the PLAN’s presence this close to Philippine vessels signals a clear escalation.
The tension boiled over on August 11, when a Chinese naval vessel actually collided with a China Coast Guard ship as both chased a Philippine patrol boat near Scarborough Shoal. It was reckless, chaotic, and broadcast China’s willingness to risk accidents to assert dominance. And the aggression isn’t limited to the sea—Philippine aircraft carrying journalists have been buzzed by Chinese fighter jets, with one jet swooping within just 200 feet. At sea, water cannons remain China’s weapon of choice. In fact, May saw the first-ever recorded water cannon attack near Sandy Cay, proving that no corner of the West Philippine Sea is off-limits anymore.
For Manila, these are not isolated incidents—they’re part of a systematic pressure campaign designed to undermine sovereignty, test alliances, and intimidate Filipinos into silence. But the Philippines has drawn its line in the law. Under UNCLOS and the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling, Ayungin and Scarborough fall squarely inside its Exclusive Economic Zone. That ruling stripped away China’s sweeping “nine-dash line” claims and recognized Manila’s rights. Beijing, of course, rejects it outright, insisting on so-called “historic rights” to nearly the entire sea.
And here’s where the danger multiplies: the clash between law and power doesn’t just pull in Manila and Beijing. It has become a rallying point for the wider world. The Philippines has doubled down on joint drills with the United States, Australia, India, and Canada—only to be shadowed at every turn by Chinese vessels. The old 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between Manila and Washington, once seen as symbolic, now looms large. Every close call—a ramming, a near-miss, a jet buzzing too close—raises the chilling possibility that one miscalculation could ignite a wider conflict.
Philippine leaders have not been shy about naming the stakes. General Romeo Brawner Jr. calls the joint drills proof of “collective resolve to protect our seas and uphold a rules-based order.” Commodore Jay Tarriela has gone all-in on what he calls “assertive transparency,” flooding the public with images and videos of Chinese provocations. And Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo put it bluntly: when one country enforces its domestic laws in another nation’s EEZ, “it really does create the kind of tension we’ve been experiencing.” His warning was stark—without adherence to international law, “the rich, the powerful… will actually be in a position to assert their own laws against the weaker countries.”
China’s answer? Denial and deflection. The Chinese Embassy in Manila accuses Philippine officials of “political theatrics.” The PLA’s Southern Theater Command brands joint patrols with foreign navies as “destabilizing” and warns that “any attempt to stir up trouble in the South China Sea is doomed to fail.”
So here we are—stuck between law and force, transparency and denial, David and Goliath. And the question that hangs heavy over every patrol, every drill, and every collision is simple but explosive: how long before this dangerous dance crosses the line into open confrontation?
The Philippines Under Siege: Security, Economy, and Sovereignty at Risk
By late August and early September 2025, the weight of China’s actions in the South China Sea could no longer be ignored. Every dimension of the Philippines’ national life—its security, its sovereignty, even the livelihoods of its people—was being directly challenged. Beijing’s unrelenting presence inside the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone is not just a diplomatic issue; it’s a blatant violation of UNCLOS and the 2016 Arbitral Award, both of which affirmed Manila’s rights in these waters. For Filipinos, this isn’t some abstract legal battle—it’s an existential fight to defend what is theirs. That reality was laid bare when Armed Forces Chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. gave chilling orders to troops aboard the grounded BRP Sierra Madre: “stop the Chinese from boarding at all costs.” Those words say everything about how close these confrontations are to crossing into direct conflict.
China’s approach is classic “gray zone” warfare—coercion without open war. Its playbook includes collisions like the one between a Chinese naval ship and a coast guard vessel chasing down a Philippine patrol, reckless air encounters where Chinese fighter jets swoop within 200 feet of Philippine aircraft, and massed blockades of coast guard and militia ships swarming strategic shoals. None of these actions are random—they’re designed to chip away at Manila’s freedom of action while staying just below the threshold that might trigger an outright military response.
The impact doesn’t stop at security. It’s hitting the economy hard, too. Filipino fishermen—the lifeblood of coastal communities—are being strangled by constant harassment. A study revealed fishing yields have dropped 22 percent since 2019, draining about $242 million annually from the economy. That’s not just numbers—it’s food on the table, and it’s families struggling to survive. Former central bank deputy governor Diwa Guinigundo put it bluntly: “Threatening our fishermen with detention will limit our ability to fish in our own territory… This could also pose a serious problem to the supply of marine products like fish and shellfish.” And beyond fisheries, energy security is on the line. China’s interference has frozen exploration at Recto Bank, an area believed to hold billions of barrels of oil, even as the Malampaya gas field—the country’s main domestic energy source—nears depletion.
The environment is also paying a heavy price. Years of Chinese reclamation, giant clam harvesting, and coral reef destruction have left scars that may never heal. One 2020 study estimated reef destruction alone is costing the Philippines $231 million every year—an invisible drain on its natural wealth and future opportunities.
Perhaps the clearest picture of this struggle comes from the resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre. What should be routine runs to support troops stationed on the shoal have turned into dangerous standoffs. Chinese coast guard ships have blasted Philippine boats with high-pressure water cannons, injuring crews and damaging vessels. Their swarming tactics and near-collisions create a constant risk of accidents—or something far worse. And yet, despite the danger, Manila has refused to back down. Through its policy of “assertive transparency,” the Philippines continues to release photos and videos of these incidents, exposing Beijing’s tactics to the world. The Department of Foreign Affairs insists these missions are not provocations but simply the exercise of the Philippines’ legitimate rights in its own waters.
What emerges is a picture of a country fighting on multiple fronts: protecting sovereignty, defending its economy, and safeguarding its people, all while walking a tightrope between deterrence and escalation. Each skirmish at Scarborough, Ayungin, and beyond is more than just a clash at sea—it’s a test of Manila’s resolve, of its alliances, and of the international order itself. The future of the Philippines, and perhaps the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, may well be decided on these contested waters.
The Incident: Facts, Figures, and Legal Context
By late August and early September 2025, the South China Sea had once again become a flashpoint, with tensions soaring around Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. What was once a simmering standoff is now a dangerous game of brinkmanship. Surveillance patrols have confirmed more than two dozen Chinese vessels crowding the contested waters—China Coast Guard ships, swarms of maritime militia, and, more troublingly, units of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. The PLAN’s presence marks a sharp escalation, a clear signal that Beijing is prepared to back its claims with heavier muscle than before.
China’s tactics are nothing if not aggressive and adaptive. On August 11, the world’s attention was drawn to a dramatic incident: a Chinese naval vessel actually collided with a China Coast Guard ship while both were chasing a Philippine patrol boat near Scarborough Shoal. That near-chaos at sea was only the latest in a string of hostile maneuvers. Water cannon attacks, once rare, are now almost routine—one in May near Sandy Cay stood out as the first recorded strike in that area. China has even extended its pressure campaign into the skies. In one reckless move, a Chinese fighter jet flew within just 200 feet of a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft carrying journalists, sparking outrage. At sea, harassment remains constant, with Chinese vessels shadowing Philippine patrols and even allied exercises. Their maritime militia has perfected the “rafting” tactic—tying ships together in packs that are virtually impossible to disperse. Piece by piece, these moves form a deliberate strategy of intimidation, meant to weaken Manila’s resolve and project Chinese dominance across the contested waters.
Against this backdrop, the Philippines has anchored its stand on international law. Manila continues to invoke the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the landmark 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling, which dismissed China’s sweeping “nine-dash line” claims and recognized areas like Second Thomas Shoal as falling squarely within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone. Yet Beijing flatly rejects the award, doubling down on its narrative of “historic rights” and “indisputable sovereignty” over most of the South China Sea. This clash of interpretations has fueled every confrontation and has pulled in the wider international community. In response, Manila has stepped up joint drills with allies and partners—including the United States, Japan, India, Australia, and Canada. These exercises, closely shadowed by Chinese vessels, are not just drills; they are demonstrations of deterrence and Manila’s determination to stand on the side of a rules-based maritime order. The growing friction has also reignited debate over the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States, as policymakers now grapple with a serious question: could a “small” clash at sea trigger a much larger conflict?
Philippine officials have not minced words. Armed Forces Chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. described the recent joint drills as a powerful statement that “reaffirm our collective resolve to protect our seas and uphold a rules-based international order.” On the front lines of public messaging, Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela has led an “assertive transparency” campaign—publishing photos and videos in real time to ensure the world cannot ignore Beijing’s actions. Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo, speaking at a major forum, warned that when one state enforces its domestic laws inside another country’s EEZ, “it really does create the kind of tension that we have been experiencing.” He cautioned that without international law, “the rich, the powerful… will actually be in a position to assert their own laws against the weaker countries.”
Beijing, unsurprisingly, has brushed off the criticism. Its embassy in Manila insists China’s sovereignty claims rest on a “solid historic and legal basis” and accused Philippine officials of “spreading false information.” Echoing this, China’s Southern Theater Command lashed out at joint patrols with foreign navies, branding them destabilizing, and warned that “any attempt to stir up trouble in the South China Sea and create tensions is doomed to fail.”
China FEARS Philippines’ Bold Transparency Strategy in the South China Sea
Future Implications and Effects
Looking ahead, the South China Sea is only set to become more dangerous for the Philippines. The collision between a Chinese Navy vessel and a China Coast Guard ship while chasing a Philippine patrol boat shows just how reckless and risky these “gray zone” tactics have become—one wrong move could spark an accident that escalates into open conflict. But Manila isn’t just sitting back. It’s doubling down on alliances, both old and new, working closer than ever with the United States, Japan, Australia, India, and even Canada. This cooperation is already showing on the water: the 2025 Balikatan exercises were the biggest ever, with full-on amphibious landings and joint air-sea battle drills. Meanwhile, bilateral exercises with Japan are sharpening anti-submarine warfare skills, proof that the Philippines wants to be an active player, not a passive bystander, in the face of Chinese aggression. As Modern Diplomacy put it, Manila is sending a clear message—it’s done being a quiet observer to Beijing’s encroachment.
One of the most powerful tools in this strategy has been “assertive transparency.” By releasing real-time photos and videos of Chinese harassment—often shared by Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela—the Philippines has dragged Beijing’s actions into the global spotlight. It hasn’t stopped China’s incursions, but it has built small but important wins: rallying international support, strengthening domestic resolve, and shaping the narrative in Manila’s favor. On top of this, fresh legal action is being weighed. On September 1, 2025, National Maritime Council spokesperson Alexander Lopez confirmed that another arbitration case is on the table, with voices like retired Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio urging the government to specifically target China’s environmental destruction in Philippine waters.
But the consequences aren’t just about geopolitics—they’re deeply economic and human. Chinese militia blockades are gutting reef fish catches, leaving Filipino fishermen struggling to survive and threatening coastal food security. A 2024 study directly linked these blockades to job losses in the fishing sector and falling stocks, a grim reminder that ordinary families are paying the price for this maritime struggle. At the same time, the BRP Sierra Madre—that rusting World War II ship stranded at Ayungin Shoal—has become a symbol of resistance, but also a potential flashpoint. If it falls, it wouldn’t just undermine Philippine sovereignty—it would embolden China to push even harder across the South China Sea.
And the bigger picture is clear: Beijing’s outright refusal to recognize the 2016 Arbitral Award has become one of the sharpest challenges to the international rules-based order. For many countries, it’s unthinkable that a permanent member of the UN Security Council can so openly defy binding international law. That’s why this fight is bigger than just the Philippines. It’s a litmus test for whether international law—and UNCLOS itself—can withstand the sustained pressure of a rising great power determined to bend the rules in its favor.
Philippines READY to Face China’s NEW Challenge at Sandy Cay?
End Note
The Chinese swarm at Ayungin Shoal represents a dangerous escalation of “gray zone” tactics—backed by verifiable evidence, in open violation of international law, and carrying grave consequences for the Philippines’ sovereignty, food security, and regional stability. Yet this confrontation is far more than a bilateral quarrel; it is a test case for the durability of international law and a microcosm of the wider geopolitical contest unfolding in the Indo-Pacific. As Manila stands firm in defending its sovereign rights, the Philippines’ strategy of alliances, transparency, and legal recourse underscores its determination not to yield. Ultimately, the path to peace and stability in the South China Sea will hinge not only on the Philippines’ resolve but also on the strength of international solidarity in upholding a rules-based maritime order.
